eSports DFS Playbook: CS:GO - May 4
Sean Mitchell breaks down Monday's four match CSGO slate and brings you his top strategies and plays for your lineup construction.
Welcome back, FAm! We do not have the Road to Rio series for this Monday, May 4th, however may the fourth me with us in a couple of two game slates from the Clutch and LOOT series! We have the first set being the LOOT series, starting bright and early at 8:15 AM ET, so get those lineups in early! The last set is the Clutch 2-gamer that starts at 5:15 PM ET, so plenty of time to get ready for this one.
Roster constructions – I delved into this exact topic a bit further when I was a guest for Mr. Howard Bender last Friday on Fantasy Alarm’s Sports Talk show, and I would like to just give a bit of advice here as well in particularly on – lineup constructions. In 2-game slates, the “standard” way to build lineups is either a 3 by 3 stack, with three players from the main team you think will win, followed by three players from the 2nd game for whom you think the winning team may be. I have also found a ton of success in playing 3x2x1 lineups with main-stacking my favorite team with 3 of those options, followed by two high-upside from my second favorite team, followed by a one-off on who I think will score the highest of the “losing” teams in my perspective. Hope this helps! The next time we have another five or six game slate, I will discuss how I go about those as well.
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**TOP MONKEY KNIFE FIGHT PLAYS OF THE DAY**
***TOP MONKEY KNIFE FIGHT PLAYS
1.) More/Less - (Map one of Heretics vs TheDice)
- Maka OVER 19.5 Kills
- Polox UNDER 19.5 Kills
2. PROMO PICK - More/Less - (Map one of Illuminar vs Ago)
- Mouz UNDER 19.5 Kills
- FURLAN OVER 18.5 Kills
3.) More/Less (Map one of WAR/LDL 4:00 PM ET START!)
- hadji UNDER 20.5 Kills
-aZen OVER 16.5 Kills
Game 1 (LOOT)
Sprout (Ranked 33rd in World) vs Nordavind (Ranked 45th in World)
For the LOOT.BET series, these teams have reached the round of 12 within this event. This is a best of three series and features a few teams here that are decently familiar with each other. These two have only faced off once so far in 2020, in a best of one, as Nordavind came out the victor with a 16-14 result on map Dust2. They faced off in October of last year in the DreamHack Open Winter 2019 Europe series where Sprout take a 2-1 result. It is important to also note that both of these two teams have some spot-starters, and for Sprout, Snatchie will be playing in his first match with his new team. H4RR3 for Nord has actually played in all five of their prior five games, so he has had a bit of time to get acclimated to the team and their chemistry. Sprout comes in as the “public” favorite to win this contest, and at around a 75% clip worth noting. I do also think it is worth noting that Sprout did beat a Heretics team four matches ago with a 2-1 result, and if you have been watching the Road to Rio, you know how good Heretics have been lately. So, major props there, but they have also been swept two out of their last five tries as well by ForZe and BIG. They did sweep Japaleno, but I wouldn’t give too much merit there, as they are not that great. Nordavind has only secured one winning match in their last five, and it was against a decent SKADE team. They had been swept by Gambit Youngsters also and have lost all three of their most recent matches in best of one format by scores of 19-17 to North (beat Fnatic), 16-12 to Heroic, and 16-6 by KOVA. Not exactly looking the greatest form coming into this match.
For the map analysis, Sprout is picking Mirage first at a 53% margin over their last many matches, and it has translated well for them, as they have won 85% of their last 13 games on that map. It is also worth noting that Nord has also picked Mirage 22% of their first map picks, however they have not fared as well only winning roughly 53% out of their last 19 tries there recently. Looks like the first ban for Sprout is and will be Vertigo, and first ban for Nord has been Train. I could see it being laid out this way, meaning we could be looking at Dust2 (favors Sprout), Inferno (Sprout has won 9 of 10 here recently), Nuke is split 50/50, and lastly Overpass, a map that Sprout won 16-3 in 2019 match. So, you likely guessed it, edge here is Sprout as well. Let’s talk player options.
ANCHOR: dycha – (1.36 Rating for Loot event, a +55 K/D ratio, 0.59 Deaths per Round, 78.3 Kill-Asst%, 1.28 IMPACT, 0.88 Kills per Round (massive) and 93.8 ADR.
Top Stacking Options: dycha, faveN, denis
ANCHOR: NaToSaphiX – (1.06 Rating, 0.71 Kills per Round, 70.0 Kill-Asst%, 1.03 IMPACT for event)
Top Stacking Options: NaToSaphiX, HS, TENZKI
Game 2 (LOOT)
ForZe (Ranked 17th in World) vs Gambit Youngsters (Ranked 50th in World)
Not only does the World rankings show a bit of a gap between these two squads, but ForZe has literally had their number also. We get another best of three series here, and one that has been dominated by ForZe by a 6-0 game log in three recent matches. Only one was played in 2020, with the other two coming in 2019, but as mentioned ForZe had won three of the six games only allowing 9, 7, and 6 round wins, while the other three games only saw GY’s winning 10 and 12 rounds with one going to OT with a final of 22-20. It seems that ForZe comes in as a slight favorite here per the bookmaker’s and is also being back by the “public” by roughly 73%. I have watched Gambit play a few matches in the last couple of weeks, and I will say I was not exactly impressed. Their name tells quite the story, they are a set of young guns, and they show flashes, usually led by Sh1ro, who is quite the shot with the sniper rifle and kid doesn’t miss often, but his team around him is not exactly the best. ForZe has 3-4 options on their team that can go off in any match and help catapult them into the win. Led by FL1T, xsepower, and facecrack. I would throw out the map anaylsis, but it seems it will favor ForZe, especially in looking at their recent matches. However, Gambit has reeled off three wins in their last four matches, two of those by the 2-0 sweep, so maybe they have been in a groove and could catch ForZe napping, as ForZe has dropped three of their last three prior matches and ALL by a 0-2 sweep. This could seemingly go a couple ways – be a close match and Forze likely wins 2-1, Gambit catches them snoozing and wins 2-1, or ForZe gets a bounce-back and dominated 2-0. Let’s talk player options.
ANCHOR: FL1T – (1.15 Rating, 0.77 Kills per Round, 70.1 Kill-Asst%, 1.13 IMPACT, and 81.9 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: FL1T, xsepower, facecrack (Jerry for value)
ANCHOR: Sh1ro – (1.31 Rating, 0.52 Deaths per Round, 74.9 Kill-Asst%, 1.36 IMPACT, 0.79 Kills per Round, 81.7 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Sh1ro, Ax1Le, nafany
Game 3 (CLUTCH)
Bravos (Ranked 181st in World) vs DETONA (Ranked 101st in World)
It is very important to note first and foremost that this CLUTCH event is best of two series, so they only play two games in each match. This needs to be considered because you can afford to play more 3x2x1 constructions in these, as you don’t exactly have to try to perceive if/can a game go to three maps, which is something that is needed for upside in best of threes obviously. We can see from these two teams prior five matches that neither have been that great. Bravos has split 1-1 in four of their last five with that fifth being an 0-2 sweep. For Detona, they have been swept 0-2 in three of their last five, splitting the other two matches by a 1-1 decision. For the backing of the “public” they are choosing DETONA to win this match at a 75% clip, however Bravos is the bookmaker favorite to win here, so use that information as you will. Bravos does have a new addition to their team in UnK, who has played less than five matches with the other four players on Bravos.
Some map analysis, the first picks for these teams has been Dust2 by DETONA, and Nuke for Bravos. Neither have yet to win over 50% on their first map choices in recent memory. First ban has been Overpass for DETONA and Mirage for Bravos. Worth noting that DETONA is on a 5-game losing streak on map Train. Vertigo has been good to Bravos lately, as they have won the only 2 recent games played there, and Nuke is actually one of the best maps for Bravos as well, as they have won 5 of their last 7 maps played there as well. With that being said, I have to side with Bravos here for the maps edge. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: UnK – (Last month playing online – 1.10 Rating, 75.8 Kill-Asst%, 0.74 Kills per Round, 79.3 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: UnK, lealziNho, krg
ANCHOR: tiburci0 – (Last month online – 1.19 Rating, 0.63 Deaths per Round, 73.5 Kill-Asst%, 1.14 IMPACT, 0.82 Kills per Round, 79.1 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: tiburci0, lucaozy, vsm
Game 4 (CLUTCH)
Keyd (Ranked 151st in World) vs W7M (Ranked 142nd in World)
We get a match of the Brazilians in the final game of the 2-game Clutch slate here in a best of 2. W7M comes in as the bookmaker’s favorite to win this match and is also catching 54% of the public votes as well. This match has been dominated by W7M in recent memory as well, as W7M has won 5 of the last 6 games played. They have faced off two times so far in 2020, with W7M winning all three games in those matches, as one was a best of one. Keyd is not a bead team, and they have split their last four of five matches 1-1, with the fifth being a 2-0 sweep over Soberano. W7M has 2-0 swept two of their last five, splitting 1-1 in two as well, and getting swept 0-2 by BOOM. This it the match that I feel has the best chance of being a 1-1 split, so I really like stacking this game up both ways, as I feel the matches should be relatively close in rounds-won even in losses for the losing team.
For the map analysis, could be a clash here as Keyd’s typical first map choice of 40% lately in Vertigo, has been a 70% ban pick of W7M recently as well. W7M has been choosing a couple of maps as their first pick, and recently taking Mirage more and winnings 4 out of 5 of their most recent games played on Mirage to boot. Nuke also favors W7M, along with mostly all other maps excluding Vertigo. So, if W7M bans Vertigo, and Keyd bans Dust2 like they have 60% of the time lately, we could see Nuke (basically split, but W7M 57%-win clip), Inferno (W7M has won 4 of last 5 recently), Train (favors Keyd slightly), or Overpass (split). Again, I can easily see this match being a 1-1 split as the two bans are both map choices that these teams excel on, and the rest are secondaries. Should be an interesting match. Let’s talk player options.
ANCHOR: mawth – (Last month online – 1.26 Rating, 0.55 Deaths per Round, 77.0 Kill-Asst%, 1.16 IMPACT, 0.80 Kills per Round, 79.0 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: mawth, jntzika, piriaz1n (tifa is value)
ANCHOR: raafa – (Last month online – 1.12 Rating, 0.61 Deaths per Round, 1.20 IMPACT, 0.70 Kills per Round)
Top Stacking Options: raafa, real, ableJ (Skullz for value)
***FAVORITE PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Favorite Plays: dycha, mawth, FL1T, sh1ro, tiburci0, UnK, raafa (not ranked in order)
Favorite Stacks: W7M, Keyd, Sprout, ForZe, Bravos, Gambit Youngsters (ranked in order)
Favorite Values Under $7K: facecrack, NaToSaphiX, nafany, Ax1LE, Jerry, jntzika, real, lealziNho, Lucaozy