eSports DFS Playbook: CS:GO - April 30
Sean Mitchell preview's Thursday's five match CSGO slate and gives you his top strategies and plays for your lineup construction.
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**TOP MONKEY KNIFE FIGHT PLAYS OF THE DAY**
1.) More/Less (Map one of Copen Flames vs North)
-Farlig UNDER 20.5 Kills
-Aizy OVER 20.5 Kills
2.) Rapid Fire (Map one of Gen.G vs Could9)
-BnTeT +1.5 Kills over Floppy
-Koosta +1.5 Kills over s0m
PROMO PICK: More/Less
-Quix OVER 17.5 Kills
-Mali UNDER 17.5 Kills
We are back for Wednesday’s 5-game main Road to Rio Counter-Strike: Global Offensive DFS Slate! Let’s get to it!
NiP (Ranked 13th in World) vs Astralis (Ranked 3rd in World)
I am quite excited about this match, as NiP are a young up-and-coming squad, and they have been showing some very nice poise in the first rounds of the Road to Rio event winning three of their last three matches against ENCE, Dignitas, and Vitality. Astralis got back on track of their winning ways in their most recent match after losing a 1-2 heart-breaker to Fnatic, beating Vitality in a 2-0 sweep. These two teams are decently familiar with each other, as they have faced-off once so far this year, and three separate times in 2019. They are pretty split in terms of matches, as NiP has won three games out of the four matches, while Astralis one-upped them and has won 4 games of the matches. They have yet to play a best of three series, as three of their recent matches were best of 2, and one was just a single game. Astralis has swept the best of two’s in two separate occasions however and would not be surprised if this happened once again, as it looked like they were back to confident in their last match sweeping Vitality. It is worth noting that in their only best of two match for this calendar year, NiP came away with the 2-0 sweep in the ESL Pro League Season 11 Europe Event, winning those games by scores of 16-8, and 16-6. Not exactly the scores you would imagine for Astralis. It does seem like whoever has won these prior matches, usually dominates the match, as five of the seven games played in these four matches dating back to 2019 only saw a round won total of 8 wins or less. So, being on the right side of this match, could lead to a dominating 2-0 sweep. I must also note that these matches being best of twos, have yet to see a 1-1 split. Per the betting odds, Astralis comes in as a 3.15-to-1 favorite to win this match against NiP.
The map analysis for these two is pretty split right down the middle, and both seem to be fair or above average on mostly all the maps, unless of course the ones they are banning. For a bit of a note on player analysis, the NiP player options all are supporting a 1.10 Rating 2.0 or higher so far for this event. I wouldn’t be surprised if they came out firing, and they will need to in order to beat a damn good Astralis team. Let’s talk player options.
ANCHOR: nawwk – (For this event, sitting at a 1.18 Rating 2.0, 0.59 Deaths per Round (very good), 77.6 Kill-Asst% (also very good), 1.08 IMPACT, 0.75 Kills per Round, 76.5 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Nawwk, REZ, Plopski (I like both Twist and Lekr0 for value in the event of full stacking)
Anchor: Device – (1.19 Rating, 0.61 Deaths per Round, 1.27 IMPACT, 0.76 Kills per Round, 80.3 ADR for Event so far)
Top Stacking Options: Device, Magisk, Xyp9x, (Dupreeh is an excellent fragger as well)
Movistar Riders (Ranked 32nd in World) vs G2 (Ranked 6th in World)
These two teams on paper don’t seem very evenly matched, and per the betting odds they don’t believe so either, as G2 comes in as a heft 4.4-to-1 favorite to win this match against the Riders. One pro to mention for Movistar is that they did 2-0 sweep a damn good Mousesports team two matches ago, but losses to Spirit by the sweep themselves, and a best of one to AVEZ, don’t exactly making you feel comfy and more so wondering if the sweep over Mouse was a fluke? G2 is good, and I do know that. G2 is fresh off a 2-1 victory over the Copenhagen Flames, and have won three of their last five, two by the sweep, and only losses coming to FaZe and Mousesports. These two teams have not faced off in recent memory, and G2 has every option on their team riding a 1.13 or higher rating 2.0. Movistar is lagging a bit for the event, riding the coat-tails of Alex, and Steel, both sporting a rating over 1.12. Only other player on their squad to have a 1.0 rating is exactly that and it is mopoz.
For the map analysis, G2’s typical first map choice of Dust2 has been the first ban map of Movi at a 98% clip, so we can likely throw this map out. Also, interestingly enough, first map pick of Overpass for Movi, has also been the first ban map of G2 over 70% also. Looking at the remaining maps, Inferno has been a first map pick of Movi over 25% of the time, while G2 has picked Vertigo 16% of the time lately, as well as running a 4-map win streak on Vertigo to boot. So, I could easily see these two being the first two maps, and I have to give the edge to G2, as they are also winning Inferno 80% of the time in their last five tries there. Also, the remaining maps would be Nuke, Train, and Mirage. G2 winning on Nuke 71% of the time over last seven tries, while winning 67% or two of the last three on Train, and Mirage has both teams winning on this map roughly 40% lately, so again, map edge goes to G2 in my opinion. Let’s talk player options.
ANCHOR: alex – (1.10 Rating, 68.2 Kill-Asst%, 1.22 IMPACT, 0.71 Kills per Round, 79.1 ADR for event so far)
Top Stacking Options: alex, Steel, Mopoz (loWel can be value)
ANCHOR: huNter- - (1.21 Rating, 0.64 Deaths per Round, 71.8 Kill-Asst%, 1.22 IMPACT, 0.79 Kills per Round, 85.9 ADR for event)
Top Stacking Options: huNter-, nexa, KennyS (JaCkz for value)
Copenhagen Flames (Ranked 41st in World) vs North (Ranked 21st in World)
This could possibly be the toss-up game of the slate, as both of these teams have shown flashes so far in this event. One to note is that North is fresh off a sweep over Mousesports two matches ago but have lost three of their last four as well. The Flames were handed defeats in both of them prior to matches to G2 and GODSENT but picked up a 2-1 decision against c0ntact three matches ago. Per the betting odds currently, North comes in as a 2.3-to-1 favorite to win this match. I could see this being a little perceived, as they did sweep Mousesports, and the fact that Copenhagen Flames haven’t beat anyone lately literally, but they have been decently competitive in those matches. With 2-0 sweeps over Mousesports and Endpoint, I must side with North here, however, I think it will be closer than expected. The Flames are led by Farlig, who is sporting a 1.19 Rating for the event, and have three of their five options over a 1.02 Rating as well. North have four of their five over a 1.00 Rating, but their top player in Aizy for the event, is only carrying a modest 1.08.
For the maps, North is choosing Vertigo as their first pick 28% lately, and it has worked out well for them as they have won 6 of their last 7 tries there and have a 5-map winning streak also, while the Flames have only played this map once lately and did not come out a winner either. The Flames have chosen Nuke as their first play close to 50% of their recent matches but have only won 33% of their last 12 opportunities there. However, their second choice for first pick has been Inferno, a map they have won 6 of their last seven, with a 6-map winning streak going. I believe that this match could easily see a third map, unless Inferno happens to be a win by North, as they have won two of their last three tries there. The last map could come down to Overpass, or Dust2. If its Dust2, have to give the edge to North as well. Let’s talk player options.
ANCHOR: Farlig – (1.14 Rating, 0.76 Kills per Round, 68.9 Kill-Asst%, 1.24 IMPACT, 74.2 ADR for Event)
Top Stacking Options: Farlig, refrezh, Queenix (nodios for value)
ANCHOR: Aizy – (1.06 Rating, 70.9 Kill-Asst%, 1.05 IMPACT, 75.4 ADR, 0.70 Kills per Round for Event)
Top Stacking Options: Aizy, MSL, Kjaerbye (cajunb for salary relief)
Gen.G (Ranked 23rd in World) vs Cloud9 (Ranked 24th in World)
I think this match could be great for stacking purposes. I usually always say stack against Cloud9, and Gen.G are pretty much one of my favorite teams in this whole event. Gen.G didn’t get a chance to play their last scheduled match due to Orgless pulling all the way out of the tournament. So, with that said I believe they have had some extra time to “study-up” and practice for Cloud9. Cloud9 flexed a bit of their muscle in their most previous match against the Evil Geniuses as they came out the winner in a 2-1 result. Per the betting odds, Gen.G is listed as a 1.35-to-1 favorite, so looking at the betting lines, they feel this will be a close game, and I agree. These two faced off this month once already in the FlashPoint1 event, where Cloud9 swept them 2-0 by scores of 16-13 and 17-19. So, can also play the revenge narrative here in favor of Gen.G as they look to get back even after that loss. Both teams come into this match in good form, winning four of their prior five matches and both playing mostly the same competition. I do feel this will be a very close match and could easily see three maps. Gen.G has four of their five player options sporting a 1.21 or higher rating for the event so far, led by BnTeT with a 1.40! Autimatic is also up there sitting at a hefty 1.33. Cloud9 will continue to rely on Floppy, oSee, motm, and Sonic in some essences, but if the first three aren’t hitting shot, they won’t have a shot. Not going into maps for this one, as I don’t think it actually matters as much. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: BnTeT – (Everyone knows that Koosta is likely one of the best on this team, but BnTeT has been so good, 1.40 Rating, 0.64 Deaths per Round, 69.9 Kill-Asst%, 1.15 IMPACT, 0.74 Kills per Round, 79.1 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: BnTeT, Koosta, Autimatic (s0m is value)
ANCHOR: floppy – (1.15 Rating, 72.5 Kill-Asst%, 1.14 IMPACT, 0.75 Kills per Round, 81.7 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: floppy, oSee, motm
Triumph (Ranked 35th in World) vs Evil Geniuses (Ranked 7th in World)
Fully expecting a bounce-back performance here for EG, as they just took one on the chin against a rival in Cloud9. Triumph is just not a great team. I mentioned they have two newer players on their team and they are still learning about the chemistry of playing together. Triumph was 0-2 swept in their prior match against 100 Thieves, and I highly could see the same result here. Per the betting odds, EG are coming in as a massive -800 favorite to win this match, and I totally, whole-heartedly, agree with that. EG should come in with a chip on their shoulder after the loss to C9, and again, Triump has 1-2 better than average players, and the rest are…meh. Not going into map analysis, as I feel this could get ugly quick. I know it will be hard to stack EG tomorrow for DFS but can look at some value and one-offs likely. Lets talk player options.
ANCHOR: Grim – (1.20 Rating, 0.80 Kills per Round, 74.5 Kill-Asst%, 1.18 IMPACT, 87.7 ADR for Event)
Top Stacking Options: Grim, Curry, Junior
ANCHOR: Brehze – (1.14 Rating, 0.66 Deaths per Round, 71.3 Kill-Asst%, 1.13 IMPACT, 0.79 Kills per Round, 81.2 ADR for Event)
Top Stacking Options: Brehze, Ethan, CeRq
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: Brehze, BnTeT, nawwk, huNter-, Device, Grim, floppy, Farlig (not in and order)
Top Stacks: Gen.G, EG, NiP, Astralis, G2
Top Values Under $7K: refrezh, autimatic, nawwk, jaCkZ, cajunb, REZ, s0m, motm, nodios, Queenix