eSports DFS Playbook: CS:GO - April 21
Sean Mitchell breaks down the two-game Counter Strike Global Offensive slate and gives you his best advice on strategy and lineup construction.
Hope you guys are ready for some more CSGO! For Tuesday we have another 2-game slate in the LOOT series, along with a showdown on the 2nd game as well. I will go ahead and cover both games, which will hit the showdown game as well of course. As always, hope everyone is having a great day, and cashing in some green screens! Let’s get down to it!
Nemiga (Ranked 54th in World) vs Japaleno (Ranked 52nd in World)
This is best of three matches between these two squads is a winner moves on and loser goes home. Both have a 1-2 record in this series so far, so both looking to stay alive. Betting odds at the current moment have Japaleno as a slight 1.35-to-1 favorite to win the match. Both of these teams have faced off numerous times, five matches just within the last year, as well as a match in the ESEA MDL Season 33 Euro in February of this year. Nemiga came out victorious in that best of one, that also went for double-OT with a score of 22-20. Nemiga actually trails Japaleno in terms of wins/losses in their prior matches at a 9-6 clip, however Nemiga has won their last two face-offs, sweeping the best of 2 in the second to more recent match. Japaleno have been on quite the down-ward spiral lately, as they have dropped all five of their last matches, four of the five being best of three matches, and three of those four were 2-0 sweep losses. Nemiga have won two of their last three matches, and three of their last five, however, two of the three wins were best of three that went to a third map, in which they won both in those wins. From looking at both teams map picks history, I could easily see this match being played at Inferno, as both teams have picked this map first over 40% of their last 10+ matches, however both sit under 50% win-rate there, but Nemiga holds edge winning 47% to Japeleno’s lowly 27%.I could also easily see Japeleno banning Mirage, as Nemiga have won at an 80%-clip over their last five times played, and I could also easily see Japeleno picking Overpass, as they have won 8 of their last 10 times played there. I could see these two picking Mirage/Dust2, with Overpass/Vertigo. I think it will be a combo of these maps to make the three map choices, and I must give the edge here to Nemiga, as they have just a slight better win rate on average overall on these selections.
Now, breakdown the player options a smidge here. Nemiga comes in with four of their five players holding very nice form currently in this event, sitting at 1.02 Rating 2.0s or better, while three sits at 1.13 (Jyo), 1.21 (lollipop21k), and 1.22 (speed4k). On the Japeleno side, for the event they have had one strong player so far, and a couple that have been steady. FREDDyFROG has been quite good, sporting a 1.23 Rating 2.0 for the event, with Relaxa (1.07), and PlesseN (1.00), both being a consistent two and three for this squad. Let’s see who we like for this match.
ANCHOR: lollipop21k – (1.09 Rating 2.0, 0.66 Deaths per Round, 72.6 Kill-Asst%, 0.71 Kills per Round)
Top Stacking Options: lollipop21k, speed4K, Jyo. (Can use boX as a value or third piece of stack as well)
ANCHOR: FREDDyFROG – (Kind of a no-brainer here, hes led the team in frags, IMPACT, ADR, and Kills per Round)
Top Stacking Options: FREDDyFROG, Relaxa, PlesseN
Secret (Ranked 65th in World) vs Hard Legion (Ranked 43rd in World)
This match is also a best of three, and this is the featured showdown slate game as well starting at 8 AM ET. Also, the winner of this match will advance to the LOOT playoffs! Per the betting odds, Hard Legion come into this game as a slight 1.3-to-1 favorite, and honestly, I don’t think they should be favored. I believe it is a bit of a mis-priced line, I think it should be close to even if not flipped. Secret comes into today’s match a winner in four of their last five matches, while Hard Legion although have won their last two matches, have dropped three before that as well. Three of their five recent matches have gone to at least three maps, and they ended up the loser in two of the three. For Secret, they have 2-0 swept three of their last five, and only two of those five went to three maps – with them winning a split of the two. These teams have not faced off lately, and to be flat out honest, the map history looks to be pretty split. However, I still believe Secret will win this match today. Let’s look at some player options.
ANCHOR: anarkez – (has topped 50 frags in back to back matches and in three of his last five, which led the team – Carrying a 1.06 Rating 2.0, 68.9% Kill-Asst%, 1.10 IMPACT, 0.70 Kills per Round)
Top Stacking Options: anarkez, juanflatroo, Percy (don’t mind sinnopsyy as an alternate also)
ANCHOR: Forester – (Top fragger, 1.13 Rating 2.0, 0.73 Kills per Round, 70.7 Kill-Asst%, 1.16 IMPACT, 81.0 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Forester, Krad, rAge (kinqie is a good alternate if need)
***Favorite Plays, Stacks, Values***
Favorite Plays: lollipop2k, Anarkez, FREDDyFROG
Favorite Stacks Ranked: Nemiga, Secret, Jalepeno, Hard Legion
Favorite Values: juanflatroo, boX, PlesseN, PERCY