CS:GO DFS Playbook: FlashPoint 3 Closed Qualifier 4.28.2021 (4-Match)

HAVU (Ranked 14th in World) @ Mousesports (Ranked 17th in World)

Betting Odds: Mousesports -130/HAVU +100

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -105/Under -130

*This is a best of three upper-bracket semi-finals match with the winner qualifying for Flashpoint 3 Event.

*HAVU For the Last Month of Play (40 Maps): Aerial 1.11 Rating, ZOREE 1.09, xseveN 1.04, sLowi 1.04, jemi 0.87.

*HAVU For the Last Three Months of Play (103 Maps): Aerial 1.21 Rating, xseveN 1.17, ZOREE 1.13, sLowi 1.09, jemi 0.97.

*Mouse For the Last Month of Play (20 Maps): ropz 1.26 Rating, frozen 1.22, acoR 1.15, Bymas 1.10, dexter 1.03.

*Mouse For the Last Three Months of Play (49 Maps): ropz 1.21 Rating, frozen 1.15, acoR 1.07, Bymas 0.95, dexter 0.96.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have not played any recent head-to-head matches.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Overpass for Mouse and Vertigo for HAVU. Think we see Dust2 for HAVU and Nuke for Mouse.

*HAVU on Dust2 (22 Maps): xseveN 1.26 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.32 IMP, 88.2 ADR. ZOREE 1.20, sLowi 1.19, Aerial 1.13, jemi 0.97. On Nuke (17 Maps): Aerial 1.39 Rating, 0.93 KPR, 1.60 IMP, 94.5 ADR. ZOREE 1.13, xseveN 1.05, sLowi 1.04, jemi 0.93.

*Mouse on Nuke (7 Maps): ropz 1.27 Rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.48 IMP, 92.2 ADR. frozen 1.24, acoR 1.03, dexter 0.98, Bymas 0.95. On Dust2 (10 Maps): ropz 1.26 Rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.31 IMP, 85.0 ADR. dexter 1.15, acoR 1.06, frozen 1.03, Bymas 1.02.

Analysis: I want to run to HAVU on this one, and I think its rather odd that Mouse are the slight favorite here. I think this match is split dead-even down the middle. I think it comes down to Mouse’s top key players. HAVU is too good of a team all-around and if Mouse slacks even the slightest, HAVU could 2-0 this match.

 

Anonymo (Ranked 47th in World) @ Complexity (Ranked 10th in World)

Betting Odds: Complexity -500/Anonymo +330

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +150/Under -200

*This is a best of three upper-bracket semi-final match with the winner qualifying for FlashPoint 3 Event.

*Anonymo For the Last Month of Play (43 Maps): KEi 1.15 Rating, snax 1.09, innocent 1.05, Kylar 1.05, mynio 0.97.

*Anonymo For the Last Three Months of Play (70 Maps): KEi 1.15 Rating, snax 1.12, Kylar 1.04, innocent 1.03, mynio 0.99.

*Complexity For the Last Month of Play (20 Maps): k0nfig 1.24 Rating, blameF 1.16, jks 1.05, poizon 1.01, RUSH 0.91.

*Complexity For the Last Three Months of Play (49 Maps): blameF 1.23 Rating, k0nfig 1.18, poizon 1.08, jks 1.04, RUSH 0.91.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have not played any recent head-to-head matches.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Dust2 for Anonymo and Train for Complexity. I believe we see Mirage for Complexity here and Nuke for Anonymo.

*Complexity on Mirage (19 Maps): blameF 1.26 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.23 IMP, 81.3 ADR. k0nfig 1.22, poizon 1.11, jks 1.08, RUSH 0.90. On Nuke (6 Maps): blameF 1.12 Rating, poizon 1.10, k0nfig 1.02, jks 0.94, RUSH 0.90.

*Anonymo on Nuke (18 Maps): KEi 1.20 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.31 IMP, 84.3 ADR. snax 1.12, innocent 1.12, Kylar 1.06, mynio 1.04. On Mirage (9 Maps): snax 1.15 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 77.6 ADR. innocent 1.06, KEi 1.05, Kylar 1.03, mynio 0.81.

Analysis: Folks may just give this match away to Complexity but Anonymo has actually been pretty good lately securing wins over Dignitas, ENCE, Endpoint, and DBL PONEY all by the 2-0 sweep within their last 7 matches played. I think this could easily see three maps and I think it relies mainly and heavily on if Anon can win Nuke, which I think they have a decent shot at. I think this match could likely go either way, but obviously we know how good Complexity can be when they are clicking.

 

Endpoint (Ranked 31st in World) @ SKADE (Ranked 23rd in World)

Betting Odds: SKADE -235/Endpoint +175

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +120/Under -160

*This is a best of three lower-bracket round 2 match for FlashPoint 3 Closed Qualifier Event.

*Endpoint For the Last Month of Play (6 Maps): mezii 1.24 Rating, Thomas 1.13,  MiGHTYMAX 1.04, CRUC1AL 0.89, Surreal 0.88

*Endpoint For the Last Three Months of Play (31 Maps): Thomss 1.13 Rating, CRUC1AL 1.08, Surreal 1.07, mezii 1.06, MiGHTYMAX 0.99.

*SKADE For the Last Month of Play (84 Maps): dennyslaw 1.18 Rating, SHiPZ 1.14, rainwaker 1.10, Duplicate 1.09, oxygen 1.05.

*SKADE For the Last Three Months of Play (127 Maps): dennyslaw 1.17 Rating, SHiPZ 1.17, rainwaker 1.12, oxygen 1.08, Duplicate 1.06.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams haven’t played any recent head-to-head matches.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Nuke for Endpoint and Vertigo for SKADE. I think we see Overpass for SKADE and Inferno for Endpoint.

*SKADE on Overpass (23 Maps): dennyslaw 1.34 Rating, 0.88 KPR, 1.45 IMP, 85.7 ADR. SHiPZ 1.24, oxygen 1.17, Rainwaker 1.12, Duplicate 1.08. On Inferno (27 Maps): SHiPZ 1.20 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.20 IMP, 84.5 ADR. Rainwaker 1.18, Duplicate 1.17, dennyslaw 1.15, oxygen 1.07.

*Endpoint on Inferno (10 Maps): Thomas 1.15 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.32 IMP, 82.5 ADR. Surreal 1.14, CRUC1AL 1.11, mezii 0.89, MiGHTYMAX 0.86. On Overpass (4 Maps): Thomas 1.28 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.26 IMP, 86.9 ADR. mezii 1.21, CRUC1AL 1.13, MiGHTYMAX 1.05, Surreal 1.04.

Analysis: The odds-on favorite here are SKADE and they are the largest favorites on the slate. The problem with this Endpoint team is they have a new face that filled the void in flameZ in mezii and he has only played a couple matches with the core. I don’t think it impacts a great bit, but I do still have to side with the books here and go with SKADE in this one, as I feel they are way more experienced as a core and the maps are absolutely in their favor.

 

Dignitas (Ranked 25th in World) @ AGO (Ranked 28th in World)

Betting Odds: Dignitas -200/AGO +150

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +115/Under -150

*This is a best of three lower-bracket round 2 match for Flashpoint 3 Closed Qualifier Event.

*Dignitas For the Last Month of Play (49 Maps): f0rest 1.12 Rating, Lekr0 1.10, hallzerk 1.06, HEAP 1.06, friberg 0.93.

*Dignitas For the Last Three Months of Play (79 Maps): Lekr0 1.12 Rating, f0rest 1.10, HEAP 1.06, hallzerk 1.05, friberg 0.92.

*AGO For the Last Month of Play (27 Maps): snatchie 1.11 Rating, F1KU 1.10, rallen 1.06, Furlan 0.94, reatz 0.92.

*AGO For the Last Three Months of Play (83 Maps): snatchie 1.16 Rating, F1KU 1.13, rallen 1.12, Furlan 0.97, reatz 0.96.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams played one recent head-to-head match back at the FunSpark ULTI 2021 Europe Event with Dignitas winning in a 2-1 decision. They collected wins on Nuke 16-4, and Train 16-10, with AGO winning Vertigo 16-10.

*Top Performers For Dignitas (3 Maps): f0rest +11 K-D Diff, 1.20 Rating, 83.1 ADR. Lerk0 +10 K-D Diff, 1.23 Rating, 78.8 ADR. hallzerk +4 K-D Diff, 1.13 Rating, 72.9 ADR.

*Top Performers For AGO (3 Maps): rallen +7 K-D Diff, 1.11 Rating, 84.7 ADR.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Overpass for AGO and Mirage for Dignitas. With Mirage generally being AGO’s first map choice, they will select a secondary map and I think that map will be Vertigo. I think we see Nuke for DIG.

*AGO on Vertigo (19 Maps): rallen 1.09 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.00 IMP, 81.0 ADR. F1KU 1.09, snatchie 1.02, reatz 0.99, Furlan 0.96. On Nuke (9 Maps): snatchie 1.17 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.29 IMP, 75.0 ADR. F1KU 1.14, rallen 1.13, Furlan 1.10, reatz 0.95.

*Dignitas On Nuke (19 Maps): f0rest 1.23 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.22 IMP, 84.5 ADR. Lekr0 1.18, hallzerk 1.17, HEAP 1.07, friberg 0.93. On Vertigo (15 Maps): HEAP 1.16 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.35 IMP, 84.7 ADR. Lekr0 1.14, hallzerk 1.03, f0rest 0.98, friberg 0.98.

Analysis: I think that with AGO having to choose a secondary map, this doesn’t help their map pool at all. They did beat DIG on Vertigo in their last meeting, but I am sure that Dignitas knows that also and have prepped a bit more for it in this match. I think we likely see a DIG 2-0 here and I don’t have much faith in AGO at all to keep it rather close.

 

*TOP STACKS: Dignitas, SKADE, HAVU, Complexity

*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: HAVU, Anonymo

*TOP CPT PLAYS: f0rest, Lekr0, dennyslaw, SHiPZ, xseveN, Aerial, ZOREE, blameF, k0nfig, ropz

*TOP FLEX PLAYS: poizon, frozen, rainwaker, hallzerk, HEAP, oxygen, sLowi, Duplicate, jemi, KEi, snax