Last week was quite the roller coaster of emotion as it was family visit time which even gives the most macho Survivor fan all of the feels. It was a great touch that the show brought not just a loved one, but entire families for the contestants who have made the show as great as it is. Not only that, but they also brought loved ones to the Survivors who are on the Edge of Extinction, which brought upon the entire group there to maul Jeff Probst with thankful hugs after Tribal Council. It was a great moment where they didn’t have to compete for their loved ones, everyone just got a chance to spend time with their families. A tip of the cap to Survivor for what was great tv.

However, we are playing a game here, and the game was right back on. Idols and advantages were flying around Tribal Council, and it was poor Tyson who was sent back to the Edge for the second time this season. It certainly didn’t seem like that was the initial plan, but once advantages were played it was who they decided on. There are just nine people left on the beach, although sometime in the future we will see another competitor come back from the Edge of Extinction. You will notice this week on FanDuel that your Survivor roster is now down to four. It clearly doesn’t make sense to choose five when there are only nine left on the show.

Idols and Advantages

A lot of inventory emptied out last week at Tribal as Jeremy used his Safety without Power advantage, Sarah used her Steal A Vote (without having to in my opinion even though it allowed them to split votes), and Kim used her idol, although incorrectly on Denise. There is a lot less power to go around now, but let’s take a look at who has what coming into this crucial week.

Sophie – immunity idol, 2 fire tokens
Michele – 50/50 coin flip
Tony – 3 fire tokens
Nick – 3 fire tokens
Denise -3 fire tokens
Kim – 2 fire tokens
Jeremy – 2 fire tokens
Sarah – 1 fire token
Ben – 1 fire token

The Survivors

The walls seem to be closing in on Jeremy somewhat as he looked to be a popular target last week before walking out of Tribal, and on his alliance. He has done a great job staying in the game considering it was a tossup between him and Natalie in the first week. He has survived a long time, but I do believe unless he wins immunity that he will be a popular target to vote out. Nick also seems like he has been in the game two or three weeks longer than he should have been, Sarah seems to think that Kim has the game in the bag which makes her a target, and we are now hearing rumblings of contestants wanting to split up the strong Sophie/Sarah alliance.

Tony ($31) – This has been a wild season for Tony. He hasn’t played his usual game where he just flies off the seat of his pants and causes controversy. He hasn’t had a single vote cast against him yet this season, and he won immunity last week in a challenge that required patience and endurance. He said himself he isn’t made for slow and steady, his game is usually fast and sloppy. It made me and my kids laugh, so I had to throw that in there as it is a direct quote. As he is Mr. Fast and Sloppy, things can go badly for Tony in a hurry so he is a risk given that he is the highest salaried guy on the slate. We have also often witnessed in the past where a Survivor has the high of individual immunity one week, just to be sent packing the next week. However, the scenes for this week’s show also do have Tony running through the jungle saying that he wants to stir things up and Sarah trying to undermine his plan. Usually, whatever they show on commercials doesn’t come to fruition on the show. Tony also has three fire tokens now, and if you have been watching all season you know that he has been DYING to turn these tokens into something that he can use to keep him alive in the game. There will also be a new hidden immunity idol in the game now that Kim used one, and you have to believe that Tony will do everything in his power to find it for himself. There is certainly some risk with Tony, but I feel good about him making it through this episode, being in a lot of confessionals, and scoring you some points.

Ben ($28) – He certainly has proven not to be the savviest of players and thinks he is smarter than he is, but Ben is still going. He has been able to survive, but honestly the target has never really been on him. I am not sure if the people left don’t see him as a threat to win the two million dollars even if he makes the end, or if the focus has just always been on someone else. However, as we get closer to the end, we know that Ben is really good at challenges, and if he feels like the focus is on him, he will do anything to find an idol. In Ben’s first season he would be up looking for the idol while everyone still slept, and it often worked out for him. We haven’t seen that never say die attitude from him yet, but again, he hasn’t needed it. He is still one of the higher priced people left, but with Ben’s skills, he should be able to keep it going another week.

Sophie ($27) – She is the last woman standing with an idol. Almost everyone else used whatever advantage they could to keep themselves in the game and with power, but Sophie stood strong. Her and Sarah certainly seem to be the target of many as they have been close since the beginning, but Sophie has an idol to save herself. She was the target of the lesser alliances votes last week, but I also think that was because she was the one who stood up in Tribal and called the rest of her alliance to chat about their Plan B. With Sarah using her advantage last week, it certainly seems that she would be the one to go after if players were looking to split Sarah and Sophie again this week. If the others did somehow get Sarah out, Sophie would naturally be her choice to bequeath her fire tokens to. However, right now Sophie is on the right side of the numbers. Sophie has played a masterful social game to this point, and seems to be well in charge of her spot.

Denise ($22) – I really thought she was in trouble for a few weeks after she had a few power play weeks, but Denise has settled back in. She is on the wrong side of the numbers, and she did get votes last week, but it still seems like Jeremy was the first target, and Tyson was the second. Denise seems to be great at challenges that require endurance, and has been one of the more impressive players of the season. Being in the alliance with fewer numbers, she also could be a good choice to receive someone’s fire tokens when they are voted out, as it seems like she has connected with a lot of people. We have learned from Survivor recently that you never really know what to expect, and although Denise isn’t in control right now, that means little coming into this episode. It would be a bit of a surprise to see her torch snuffed this week.

Michele ($20) – She might be near the bottom of the alliance that has the numbers, but she is still in the alliance that has the numbers. Michele has flown under the radar, but at the same time she has also controlled a good number of votes earlier in the season. She has played a game that we haven’t seen very often. She has been on the outs, been in control, and now is in a good alliance, even if she isn’t at the top. Michele has played a great social game as well, and has been a popular Survivor to have multiple confessionals on a weekly basis. If Nick gets voted out this week I will almost guarantee that she gets one, or perhaps all of his fire tokens when he goes to the Edge. She hasn’t been great at challenges this week, but she also is a decent bet at finding an idol. Michele really doesn’t seem like a target this week. If the lesser alliance somehow does pull an idol or advantage to flip the votes, you have to figure that they would go after a bigger target.

Example Lineup

Tony (or Ben, your choice)