The UFC returns from hiatus with some notable happenings. This card will mark its ABC debut, which is a pretty big deal. Tune in for a free night of fights. Second, and more important to us, Draftkings will be updating it’s MMA scoring. The new rules basically move to include all strikes, control time, and add value to super quick finishes, while eliminating advances. I think all of the changes are for the better and will lead to a more enjoyable MMA DFS product.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Max Holloway vs Calvin Kattar | 8900/7300 | - | Stackability: Safe | -163/ 130 | #N/A |
| All signs point to a five round striking affair here. Max has the volume but Kattar is the cleaner boxer. This will be a great test for both: we'll learn if Volk was a unique problem for Max and if Kattar is ready for a tittle shot. Both can be slow starters but it should evolve into a war at some point and make up the volume. That makes it a safe stack. I'll side with Max, since Kattar has been out-paced by Moicano and Zabit previously. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Joaquin Buckley | 9400 | Alessio Di Chirico | Somewhat-Safe | -275 | #N/A |
| Buck is making hay while his star shines. He has technical strides to make but the UFC is keeping his competition beatable. Di Chirico fights safe and probably extends the fight into spoiling a win bonus as well as high stirking volume so Buckley will need to connect early at this price. Di Chirico has a rep for being durable but did get unofficially KO'd at the end his last fight by Zak Cummings. | |||||
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 9300 | Li Jingliang | Somewhat-Safe | -300 | #N/A |
| At 34 and coming off a layoff Ponz needs to assert himself in the ranks quickly. Li is a beatable opponent but one that is durable and just keeps coming. We've seen Ponz get into wars with people like that before. This could be a trap spot if he doesn't come out sharp. | |||||
| Austin Lingo | 9000 | Jacob Kilburn | Moderate | -230 | #N/A |
| I'm fairly high on Lingo in this spot. He got a tough matchup in a last minute debut with Youseff Zalal, who just ran circles and out grappled the bruiser. Kilburn isn't that. He has to square up with opponents and hope to land the bigger shots. That's a dangerous game to play with Lingo. He also looks to be in solid shape after taking almost a year off. | |||||
| Sarah Moras | 9100 | Vanessa Melo | Moderate | -190 | #N/A |
| Moras is the bottum rung of UFC gatekeeper. She's going to lose to anyone with some skill. That hasn't been Melo this far. Moras is in the best shape we've seen her and has the BJJ to be trouble for Melo, who has struggled to get up off the mat in her UFC career. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Dusko Todorovic | 8500 | Punahele Soriano | Moderate | -163 | #N/A |
| I'm all about Dusko in this spot. Soriano is flashy with big power but lacks underlying skills with only 7 fights. Dusko can beat him just about everywhere as long as he doesn't get drawn into a brawl. The price and line could look woefully off if Dusko performs how I expect. | |||||
| Carlos Felipe | 8600 | Justin Tafa | Somewhat-Risky | -190 | #N/A |
| I like the willingness of Felipe to brawl but he's approach a point of over-hype. Plus Tafa could have some holes in his striking defense but he does pack that Samoan power. We're also unsure if Felipe has big power himself or just swings wild. Also, heabyweights be heavyweights. | |||||
| Carlos Condit | 8700 | Matt Brown | Somewhat-Risky | -170 | #N/A |
| Condit looked solid enough in his most recent fight, albeit against Court MaGee who declined to grapple. Brown is more an opportunistic grappler but may be more inclined with a shot chin and the rangy Condit firing off on him. If it turns into a sloppy grind that's not always great for scoring. | |||||
| Wu Yanan | 8400 | Joselyne Edwards | Risky | -105 | #N/A |
| Wu has not been great in the UFC, but as many Chinese prospects, was rushed along. She should be better then the late notice Edwards. I just don't see much volume in this fight with Wu's grinding style, however. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Li Jingliang | 6900 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | Somewhat-Risky | 230 | #N/A |
| Li Jingliang does two things well. Being tenacious and having some brute strength. I don't quite think that's enough to beat Ponz. If the older man isn't ready for a drawn out brawl Li could shock people late, however. | |||||
| Matt Brown | 7500 | Carlos Condit | Somewhat-Risky | 150 | #N/A |
| Brown is 40, shopworn, and has lost the trademark iron jaw that allowed him to be a special fighter. He's still gritty, with some sneaky power. That's not likely to be enough to do anything other than win a grinding decision and be a DK disappointment. | |||||
| Justin Tafa | 7600 | Carlos Felipe | Risky | +175 | #N/A |
| Everyone seems quick to count Tafa out. Felipe could be a HW up and comer or just a heavy dude who's willing to brawl. We have big questions about Tafa's chin and gas tank but he's raw in MMA and has taken time off training. There's a decent chance Tafa is faster and a better kickboxer, as well as more powerful. | |||||
| Punahele Soriano | 7700 | Dusko Todorovic | Risky | +145 | #N/A |
| Soriano is a tough cat and has immense power. He's been sidelined for about a year and seems to be out of chances for gimme fights. I'm high on Dusko but will hedge that Soriano could beat anyone on the right night if they don't move their head. | |||||
| Vanessa Melo | 7100 | Sarah Moras | Risky | +175 | #N/A |
| Maybe Melo has a breakthrough against her weakest UFC opponent to date? I don't have high hopes for it but she should have some margin of advantage on the feet. Question is, how long can she keep the fight there? | |||||
| Jacob Kilburn | 7200 | Austin Lingo | Risky | +210 | #N/A |
| Maybe I'm misreading Lingo and Kilburn is a solid discount. They're going to bite down and trade. Those are certainly the kind of fights to target underdogs in. | |||||
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Joaquin Buckley | $9,400 |
| Austin Lingo | $9,000 | |
Mid Tier | Max Holloway | $8,900 |
| Dusko Todorovic | $8,500 | |
| Value Tier | Calvin Kattar | $7,300 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Max Holloway | $21 |
| Austin Lingo | $20 | |
Mid Tier | Dusko Todorovic | $19 |
| Calvin Kattar | $18 | |
| Value Tier | Justin Tafa | $11 |
Favorite Props: Lingo ITD +130
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Todorovic -163, Yanan -105
Long Shot: Tafa ITD +295
Live Dogs: Kattar, Tafa, Jiangliang, Brown, Zawada, Melo
Stats & Picks:
| Max Holloway | vs | Calvin Kattar |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 21-6-0 | Record | Record: 22-4-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (48%) | Knockouts | 11 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (10%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (9%) |
| -163 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Carlos Condit | vs | Matt Brown |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 31-13-0 | Record | Record: 24-17-0 |
| 15 KO/TKO (48%) | Knockouts | 14 KO/TKO (64%) |
| 13 SUBMISSIONS (42%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (27%) |
| -170 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | vs | Li Jingliang |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 28-3-0 | Record | Record: 17-6-0 |
| 15 KO/TKO (56%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (47%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (22%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (24%) |
| -300 | Vegas Odds | +230 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Joaquin Buckley | vs | Alessio Di Chirico |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 12-5-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (75%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (42%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
| -275 | Vegas Odds | +210 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Punahele Soriano | vs | Dusko Todorovic |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 10-0-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (57%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (60%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (29%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) |
| +145 | Vegas Odds | -163 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 7/10 |
| Wu Yanan | vs | Joselyne Edwards |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 11-3-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (64%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (56%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (18%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
| -105 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Carlos Felipe | vs | Justin Tafa |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 4-1-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (67%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (100%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -190 | Vegas Odds | +175 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| David Zawada | vs | Ramazan Emeev |
| $7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 17-5-0 | Record | Record: 19-4-0 |
| 11 KO/TKO (65%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (16%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (24%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (37%) |
| +248 | Vegas Odds | -270 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Sarah Moras | vs | Vanessa Melo |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 6-7-0 | Record | Record: 10-8-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (20%) |
| -190 | Vegas Odds | +175 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Jacob Kilburn | vs | Austin Lingo |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 8-3-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (43%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (29%) |
| +210 | Vegas Odds | -230 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |