We’re back at it with the third UFC event in a span of eight days! Let’s keep it rolling with some recent success. This card is much riskier with landmines all over. Be cautious not to overextend on any one play. That should make for a very fun night in GPP pools.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Alistair Overeem vs Walt Harris | 7500/8700 | - | Stackability: Risky | +132/ -142 | +197/-115 |
| This fight was booked prior to Harris’ daughter’s abduction. I was very high on Harris doing exactly what Jair Rozenstruik did to Overeem. That fight showed that Reem has an excellent gameplan for dealing with dangerous strikers who don’t grapple well. That has me backing off how heavy I would have been on Harris. There are reasons to like both sides but neither is anywhere close to a sure thing. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Claudia Gadelha | 9100 | Angela Hill | Safe | -240 | +320 |
| This is a good spot for Gadelha should she execute a wrestling attack. Hill is a game fighter but has major grappling holes. Claudia has chosen to focus on striking in some of her recent performances so there's a chance that doesn't happen. We can only assume her camp has a good game plan here. | |||||
| Cortney Casey | 8800 | Mara Romero Borella | Somewhat-Safe | -152 | +500 |
| Casey is busy on the feet. That should be a problem for the increasingly hittable Romero Borella. She’s been dropped in consecutive fights. Casey may take some time to shake the rust off but should gain steam as this one goes on. | |||||
| Miguel Baeza | 9000 | Matt Brown | Somewhat-Risky | -132 | +115 |
| The young striker could pick Brown apart with a good game plan. Baeza would have to close some of the holes he’s shown to date to avoid getting punished back by the Immortal. He also threatened some BJJ in his Contender Series fight which is a weakness for Brown. | |||||
| Song Yadong | 8900 | Marlon Vera | Somewhat-Risky | -192 | +300 |
| Yadong was a fast rising prospect that ran into a hurdle in a draw against Cody Stamann. It’s hard to know how much of his production has been a shear athletic advantage so far. Vera is dangerous but exploitable, though. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Krzysztof Jotko | 8600 | Eryk Anders | Somewhat-Safe | -128 | +530 |
| Jotko is basically a better version of Anders with a worse chin. He should run circles around his opponent here. He'll just need to protect a very suspect chin for three rounds, something he's struggled to do. | |||||
| Darren Elkins | 8300 | Nate Landwehr | Somewhat-Safe | -117 | +445 |
| If the Elkins that is a tenacious wrestler capable of absorbing immense damage shows up this is a great spot. The miles and damage are racking up, however. He’ll need to get things to the mat early each round. | |||||
| Edson Barboza | 8500 | Dan Ige | Moderate | -142 | +320 |
| It feels like people are overlooking Barboza here. It’s a tailormade match up for him on his best day. How much of that version is left will be the questions. Ige is very gritty and will not quit. | |||||
| Don'Tale Mayes | 8400 | Rodrigo Nascimento | Risky | -103 | +180 |
| Mayes doesn't have a ton going for him outside of being big and hitting like a truck. He needs you to stand still long enough to connect, though. Each time he steps up in competition he's outclassed but drops down to win again. We'll see where Nascimento stands. | |||||
| Kevin Holland | 8200 | Anthony Hernandez | Somewhat-Risky | -108 | +385 |
| Holland has plenty of tools. His problem is between the ears. In every one of his UFC fights he makes poor decisions, let’s opponents back into fights, and fights them where they want the action. | |||||
| Anthony Hernandez | 8000 | Kevin Holland | Somewhat-Risky | -102 | +290 |
| If Fluffy Hernandez can frustrate the more talented fighter he can grapple his way to a decision or submit Holland. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Matt Brown | 7200 | Miguel Baeza | Moderate | +122 | +275 |
| The concerns about Brown's durability are legitimate but he's as tough as the come. Baeza can probably hurt him. I don't know that he can finish him. That's when Brown goes to work. He knows how to push his opponent to their breaking point and win fights. | |||||
| Marlon Vera | 7300 | Song Yadong | Moderate | +177 | +290 |
| Vera is a very dangerous fighter with the ability to finish on the feet or the mat. His ring IQ has been a problem. On his recent 5-0 run (all finishes) he’s improved it, though none of those wins were against anyone of Yadong’s caliber. | |||||
| Dan Ige | 7700 | Edson Barboza | Moderate | +132 | +285 |
| I have a suspicion Ige’s team knows something we don’t in taking this fight. It’s a bad matchup for him. He’s got the tenacity to breakthrough in a win if Barboza is off his game at all. | |||||
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 7800 | Don'Tale Mayes | Somewhat-Risky | -107 | +150 |
| We know very little about Nascimento. A bet on him here is a bet that he’s faster than the plodding Mayes and smart enough not to stand toe to toe. Mayes is likely to tire and open the door for a submission. | |||||
| Nate Landwehr | 7900 | Darren Elkins | Risky | +107 | +240 |
| Landwehr's path to victory is simple. He swings like a madman and sometimes comes out the winner. | |||||
| Eryk Anders | 7600 | Krzysztof Jotko | Risky | +118 | +280 |
| Anders will almost certainly lose much of this fight. If he gets an opportunity to test Jotko’s chin he will, however. Jotko has hurt in plenty of fights he should have won. | |||||
| Angela Hill | 7100 | Claudia Gadelha | Risky | +220 | +745 |
| Hill has been improving her takedown defense. This is a steep test, however. If she can stay off the mat and out-strike Gaedelha she could win a decision. | |||||
| Mara Romero Borella | 7400 | Cortney Casey | Risky | +142 | +665 |
| If Mara somehow comes to the realization she needs to go back to her judo roots she could out-grapple Casey with ease. She’s gotten away from that part of her game for a while, though. | |||||
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup)
Vegas Odds
Favorite Bets: Jotko -140, Elkins -130, Gadelha -200
Favorite Props: Vera ITD +220, Mayes/Nascimento OVER 1.5 rounds +105
Long Shot: Brown ITD +325
Live Dogs: Overeem, Ige, Vera, Brown, Landwehr, Borella, Anders
Stats & Picks
| Alistair Overeem | vs | Walt Harris |
| $7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 45-18-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 13-7-0 (1 NC) |
| 23 KO/TKO (51%) | Knockouts | 13 KO/TKO (100%) |
| 17 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +132 | Vegas Odds | -142 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Claudia Gadelha | vs | Angela Hill |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 17-4-0 | Record | Record: 12-7-0 |
| Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (12%) | |
| Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (41%) | |
| -245 | Vegas Odds | +225 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Dan Ige | vs | Edson Barboza |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 13-2-0 | Record | Record: 20-8-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 12 KO/TKO (60%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) |
| +135 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Eryk Anders | vs | Krzysztof Jotko |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 13-4-0 | Record | Record: 21-4-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (23%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (62%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) |
| +125 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Song Yadong | vs | Marlon Vera |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 15-4-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 15-5-1 |
| 6 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (33%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (53%) |
| -190 | Vegas Odds | +175 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Matt Brown | vs | Miguel Baeza |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 24-16-0 | Record | Record: 8-0-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (40%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (44%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (20%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (38%) |
| +122 | Vegas Odds | -132 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Anthony Hernandez | vs | Kevin Holland |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 7-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 16-5-0 |
| 14 KO/TKO (64%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (14%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (27%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (71%) |
| -105 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Giga Chikadze | vs | Irwin Rivera |
| $7,000 | DFS Salary | #N/A |
| Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 9-4-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (75%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (67%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (11%) |
| -400 | Vegas Odds | +355 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
| Darren Elkins | vs | Nate Landwehr |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 25-8-0 | Record | Record: 13-3-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (56%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (11%) |
| -117 | Vegas Odds | +107 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Cortney Casey | vs | Mara Romero Borella |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 8-7-0 | Record | Record: 12-7-0 (2 NC) |
| 3 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (33%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
| -152 | Vegas Odds | +142 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | vs | Don'Tale Mayes |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 7-3-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (57%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (62%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -107 | Vegas Odds | -103 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |