It’s a typical FIght Night card with some lower level fights and some likely slopfests. That can make for a fun DFS night if you can peg them, however. As with most of these Vegas cards we’re struggling for underdogs to like. Make sure you look for one’s with wrestling. That’s usually the best path to an upset.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Robert Whittaker vs Kelvin Gastelum | 9100/7100 | - | Stackability: Safe | -250/ 210 | 195/400 |
| The fight that was supposed to happen a few years back will finally take place, though not for the title here. Gastelum hasn't looked the same since that fifth round against Adesanya. He has been more interested in grappling. That's not usually a winning strategy against Whittaker. That leaves Kelvin with a flash KO as his main path. It's possible if the vintage shows up. Given that the winner of this is probably in line for the title shot it wouldn't be surpprising. Bobby Knuckles is still probably going to out-savvy him for five conservative rounds. That makes it stackable for cash. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Tony Gravely | 9400 | Anthony Birchak | Somewhat-Safe | -325 | #N/A |
| It's a shame Gravely came in at such long odds. He would have been a smash play in the 8K range. Here he needs to bring the heavy grappling pace we've seen and win ITD likely. Possible but not a give. | |||||
| Tracy Cortez | 9000 | Justine Kish | Somewhat-Safe | -280 | +333 |
| It's upsetting Cortez missed weight by only half a pound. She looks in great shape and seemed ready to return to 125. She's a risk to gas out after another tough cut. Her grappling should be enough to get by Kish, though. And we love projectable grappling. | |||||
| Abdul Razak Alhassan | 9300 | Jacob Malkoun | Moderate | -290 | -159 |
| The UFC has lowered the bar all the way for Alhassan. If he can't take of Malkoun it's over. The UFC is doing Whittaker favors signing Malkoun to fights. He's in over his head. First round KO or bust again for Alhassan. That's a necessary risk in GPPs. | |||||
| Loopy Godinez | 9200 | Jessica Penne | Somewhat-Risky | -305 | +300 |
| Godinez is very green with only five pro fights. She won the LFA title in that short time, which counts for something. She's a good boxer who's working to learn takedown defense. Penne isn't a great wrestler so Godinez is the deserving favorite. Things probably get bloody in there. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Alexandr Romanov | 8800 | Juan Espino | Moderate | -143 | +120 |
| King Kong takes on fellow HW riser Juan Espino in a surprising matchup. Both camps must see something they think they can exploit to consolidate the otheer's momentum. Romanov probably loses the grappling edge he's enjoyed but will still have a good shot to win on his aggression alone. Neither is a sharp boxer but Romanov is the more svage puncher. | |||||
| Bartosz Fabinski | 8300 | Gerald Meerschaert | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +185 |
| We love Bartosz because he dedicates himself blindy to a top-heavy wrestling attack. That should work well against GM3. He'll need to keep his neck out of a squeeze for 15 minutes, however. Not a given with Bartosz. | |||||
| Andrei Arlovski | 8500 | Chase Sherman | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +300 |
| Andrei is looking to given another young HW a lesson. Sherman is very hittable so there's a decent chance it happens. Arlovski hasn't been a great DK play but Sherman's all offense attack may coax out a playable performance from AA. | |||||
| Austin Hubbard | 8900 | Dakota Bush | Somewhat-Risky | -185 | +300 |
| Hubbard is a mediocre generalist. That's good enough to beat many UFC newcomers. Bush is a strong wrestler but Hubbard has been in there with better. He's also lost most of those fights. I don't like the price for someone likely headed to a decision. | |||||
| Jeremy Stephens | 8400 | Drakkar Klose | Risky | -120 | +205 |
| We get the return of lil' Heathen to lightweight here. This may be his farewell fight if he can't find a win. Klose is a safe fighter and that's something Stephens has been able to exploit with his power and aggression previously. I do worry that Klose picks him off on his way in for 15ish minutes, though. | |||||
| #N/A | #N/A | Risky | #N/A | #N/A | |
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Alexander Munoz | 7500 | Luis Pena | Somewhat-Risky | +120 | +375 |
| Any dog fighting Pena is a live dog. Especially if they can wrestle. Pena doesn't use his reach particularly well, doesn't defend takedowns all that fiercly, and is generally content to watch the minute tick off the clock in close but losing efforts. If Munoz can pull it off it's behind wrestling and that pays on DK. | |||||
| Juan Espino | 7400 | Alexandr Romanov | Somewhat-Risky | +115 | +225 |
| I like Romanov to win like most folks. There's the rub. You can get a dangerous HW with solid leverage in Espino. He's likely going to neutralize Romanov's wrestling and even if he doesn't it's actually good thing if the fight hits the mat for him. He's a dangerous submission grappler who tends to win early when he does. This is the profile of a GPP target. | |||||
| Dakota Bush | 7300 | Austin Hubbard | Somewhat-Risky | +160 | +275 |
| Bush can wrestle well and we've seen strong grapplers have their way with Hubbard. Hubbard has a good get up game and isn't lost in the BJJ world but also doesn't excel. Bush is one of the few live dogs on the card. | |||||
| Drakkar Klose | 7800 | Jeremy Stephens | Somewhat-Risky | +100 | +400 |
| Klose is getting too little respect IMO. He's probably the better boxer and has a knack for winning decisions. If more than one or two dogs hit Klose is probably not on the optimal. If the favorties dominate any winning dog is useful. He will need to avoid getting his head taken off by a hungry Stephens. | |||||
| Gerald Meerschaert | 7900 | Bartosz Fabinski | Risky | +100 | +375 |
| GM3 is one of the hardest UFC fighters to cap. He's all over the place with slippery wins and bad losses. His striking has gotten better and he's a dangerous submission artist. Bartosz does leave his neck exposed from time to time. | |||||
| Chase Sherman | 7700 | Andrei Arlovski | Risky | +100 | +240 |
| Sherman can't defend strikes so he has to use his offense to cover those holes. That's risky business in the UFC and he's had his ups and downs. I don't see him KOing Arlovski but it's happened before. | |||||
| Anthony Birchak | 6800 | Tony Gravely | Risky | +265 | #N/A |
| IF Gravely gasses from his own pace again Birchak could be live for a submission finish. He'll have to grind to get there. | |||||
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Tony Gravely | $9,400 |
| Tracy Cortez | $9,000 | |
Mid Tier | Alexandr Romanov | $8,800 |
| Bartosz Fabinski | $8,300 | |
| Value Tier | Alexander Munoz | $7,500 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Tony Gravely | $23 |
| Tracy Cortez | $20 | |
Mid Tier | Alexandr Romanov | $18 |
| Bartosz Fabinski | $16 | |
| Value Tier | Dakota Bush | $13 |
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Arlovski -120, Romanov -140
Favorite Props: Klose WBD +195, Hubbard/Bush FGTD -150
Live Dogs: Klose, Munoz, Bush, Espino, Gastellum, Meerschaert
Stats & Picks:
| Robert Whittaker | vs | Kelvin Gastelum |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 23-5-0 | Record | Record: 17-6-0 (1 NC) |
| 9 KO/TKO (41%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (38%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (23%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (25%) |
| -250 | Vegas Odds | +210 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Jeremy Stephens | vs | Drakkar Klose |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 28-18-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 11-2-1 |
| 19 KO/TKO (68%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (36%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (7%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Andrei Arlovski | vs | Chase Sherman |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 30-20-0 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 15-6-0 |
| 17 KO/TKO (57%) | Knockouts | 14 KO/TKO (93%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (10%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Abdul Razak Alhassan | vs | Jacob Malkoun |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 10-3-0 | Record | Record: 4-1-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (100%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -290 | Vegas Odds | +245 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Luis Pena | vs | Alexander Munoz |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 8-3-0 | Record | Record: 6-1-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (33%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
| -148 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 4/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Tracy Cortez | vs | Justine Kish |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 7-3-0 |
| 1 KO/TKO (13%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (29%) |
| -280 | Vegas Odds | +240 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Alexandr Romanov | vs | Juan Espino |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 13-0-0 | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (10%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (62%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (70%) |
| -143 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Jessica Penne | vs | Loopy Godinez |
| $7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 12-6-0 | Record | Record: 5-0-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (17%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (20%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (58%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +240 | Vegas Odds | -305 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Bartosz Fabinski | vs | Gerald Meerschaert |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 15-4-0 | Record | Record: 31-14-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (53%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (19%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 23 SUBMISSIONS (74%) |
| -120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Austin Hubbard | vs | Dakota Bush |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 12-5-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (25%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
| -185 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Tony Gravely | vs | Anthony Birchak |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 20-6-0 | Record | Record: 16-7-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (40%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (31%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (15%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
| -325 | Vegas Odds | +265 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |