What a phenomenal race we had on Sunday. Great multiple groove racing, racing for every position on the track, and drama as drivers tried to recover from mistakes pre-race and mid-race alike. Ultimately Kyle Busch wound up with his eighth win at the short track while his older brother finished right behind him though not for a lack of trying to win on the final restart with 18 laps left. We’re going to try something different this week with the analysis. Instead of writing up a breakdown of the contests, there will be a table showing the full ownership and DFS value of each driver in the contests we’re breaking down while highlighting some of the interesting ownerships.
DraftKings
Large-Field GPP
The “NAS $125K Slingshot” contest is the basis for this analysis with its 49,544 entries and the top-11,805 finishing positions being paid.
Money Line: 282.25 FA Cash Lineup: 318.00 FA GPP 1 Lineup: 217.5 FA GPP 2 Lineup: 325.00
| Driver | Pct. Played | Pts. Scored | Salary | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Bowman | 7.71% | 12.5 | 7400 | 1.69 |
| Aric Almirola | 17.82% | -24 | 8300 | -2.89 |
| Austin Dillon | 13.91% | 31.5 | 7200 | 4.38 |
| Bayley Currey | 1.35% | 16 | 4800 | 3.33 |
| Brad Keselowski | 6.71% | 46.5 | 12200 | 3.81 |
| Bubba Wallace | 5.84% | 32 | 6200 | 5.16 |
| Chase Elliott | 41.85% | 40 | 8900 | 4.49 |
| Chris Buescher | 19.04% | 26.5 | 6400 | 4.14 |
| Clint Bowyer | 23.67% | 60 | 8600 | 6.98 |
| Cody Ware | 0.30% | 0 | 4900 | 0.00 |
| Corey Lajoie | 5.53% | 8 | 5200 | 1.54 |
| Daniel Hemric | 7.94% | 10.5 | 6000 | 1.75 |
| Daniel Suarez | 34.19% | 51 | 7300 | 6.99 |
| David Ragan | 7.88% | 24 | 5600 | 4.29 |
| Driver | Pct. Played | Pts. Scored | Salary | Value |
| Denny Hamlin | 22.07% | 43.25 | 9200 | 4.70 |
| Erik Jones | 35.30% | 12.5 | 7800 | 1.60 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 27.58% | 35 | 8000 | 4.38 |
| Joey Gase | 0.35% | 0 | 5000 | 0.00 |
| Joey Logano | 15.80% | 117 | 11100 | 10.54 |
| Kevin Harvick | 12.44% | 72 | 11600 | 6.21 |
| Kurt Busch | 22.74% | 74.5 | 10700 | 6.96 |
| Kyle Busch | 28.13% | 99.75 | 12900 | 7.73 |
| Kyle Larson | 27.19% | 28.5 | 9500 | 3.00 |
| Landon Cassill | 3.27% | 23.5 | 5300 | 4.43 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 22.71% | 48 | 9800 | 4.90 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 24.07% | 41 | 6700 | 6.12 |
| Matt Tifft | 4.65% | 19.5 | 5500 | 3.55 |
| Driver | Pct. Played | Pts. Scored | Salary | Value |
| Michael McDowell | 6.97% | 6 | 5400 | 1.11 |
| Paul Menard | 7.81% | 41 | 6900 | 5.94 |
| Quin Houff | 1.52% | 17 | 5100 | 3.33 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 28.52% | -0.5 | 7600 | -0.07 |
| Ross Chastain | 16.03% | 23.5 | 5700 | 4.12 |
| Ryan Blaney | 30.69% | 96 | 10300 | 9.32 |
| Ryan Newman | 15.33% | 38.5 | 7000 | 5.50 |
| Ryan Preece | 14.40% | 24.5 | 6500 | 3.77 |
| Ty Dillon | 20.29% | 40.5 | 5800 | 6.98 |
| William Byron | 14.54% | 14.5 | 6800 | 2.13 |
Highlights:
- Chase Elliott was the highest owned driver at 41.85-percent and the only driver over the 40-percent barrier.
- Erik Jones, Daniel Suarez, and Ryan Blaney cracked the 30-percent rostered mark.
- More than a quarter of the field were rostered in the 20-percent range with 10 drivers cracking that barrier.
- Joey Logano was the highest scoring driver on the weekend and only played on 15.8-percent of lineups in this contest.
- Kevin Harvick made 12.4-percent of rosters though it’s impossible to know how many people switched out of him given the pre-race inspection issues and penalty that was handed down.
- Brad Keselowski was actually the best value play as the lowest-owned driver that scored the most with a 46.5-point day despite being shuffled back due to a late-race penalty.
- All drivers in the field were played in this contest
Large-Field Cash
The “NAS Single Entry $5 Double Up” contest is the basis for this analysis with its 1,149 entries and the top-500 finishing positions being paid.
Money Line: 249 FA Cash Lineup: 318.00
| Driver | Pct. Drafted | Pts. Scored | Salary | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Bowman | 5.40% | 12.5 | 7400 | 1.69 |
| Aric Almirola | 12.53% | -24 | 8300 | -2.89 |
| Austin Dillon | 9.05% | 31.5 | 7200 | 4.38 |
| Bayley Currey | 0.78% | 16 | 4800 | 3.33 |
| Brad Keselowski | 3.66% | 46.5 | 12200 | 3.81 |
| Bubba Wallace | 2.52% | 32 | 6200 | 5.16 |
| Chase Elliott | 56.14% | 40 | 8900 | 4.49 |
| Chris Buescher | 16.28% | 26.5 | 6400 | 4.14 |
| Clint Bowyer | 21.15% | 60 | 8600 | 6.98 |
| Cody Ware | 0.61% | 0 | 4900 | 0.00 |
| Corey Lajoie | 5.22% | 8 | 5200 | 1.54 |
| Daniel Hemric | 4.09% | 10.5 | 6000 | 1.75 |
| Daniel Suarez | 44.04% | 51 | 7300 | 6.99 |
| David Ragan | 5.31% | 24 | 5600 | 4.29 |
| Driver | Pct. Drafted | Pts. Scored | Salary | Value |
| Denny Hamlin | 15.06% | 43.25 | 9200 | 4.70 |
| Erik Jones | 31.16% | 12.5 | 7800 | 1.60 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 23.24% | 35 | 8000 | 4.38 |
| Joey Gase | 0.17% | 0 | 5000 | 0.00 |
| Joey Logano | 13.49% | 117 | 11100 | 10.54 |
| Kevin Harvick | 10.36% | 72 | 11600 | 6.21 |
| Kurt Busch | 31.59% | 74.5 | 10700 | 6.96 |
| Kyle Busch | 23.15% | 99.75 | 12900 | 7.73 |
| Kyle Larson | 39.25% | 28.5 | 9500 | 3.00 |
| Landon Cassill | 1.74% | 23.5 | 5300 | 4.43 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 18.71% | 48 | 9800 | 4.90 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 28.55% | 41 | 6700 | 6.12 |
| Matt Tifft | 3.74% | 19.5 | 5500 | 3.55 |
| Driver | Pct. Drafted | Pts. Scored | Salary | Value |
| Michael McDowell | 6.01% | 6 | 5400 | 1.11 |
| Paul Menard | 6.18% | 41 | 6900 | 5.94 |
| Quin Houff | 0.96% | 17 | 5100 | 3.33 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 44.39% | -0.5 | 7600 | -0.07 |
| Ross Chastain | 28.37% | 23.5 | 5700 | 4.12 |
| Ryan Blaney | 31.16% | 96 | 10300 | 9.32 |
| Ryan Newman | 11.92% | 38.5 | 7000 | 5.50 |
| Ryan Preece | 13.05% | 24.5 | 6500 | 3.77 |
| Ty Dillon | 18.02% | 40.5 | 5800 | 6.98 |
| William Byron | 10.70% | 14.5 | 6800 | 2.13 |
Highlights:
- Chase Elliott was the highest-owned driver again but this time at 56.1-percent which makes sense on a short track for the pole sitter.
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Daniel Suarez were the next highest played at 44.4 and 44-percent and the only ones between 40 and 50-percent.
- Position differential was the play in this contest with Kyle Larson, Kurt Busch, and Kyle Busch being some of the higher-owned drivers.
- Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano were owned at a pretty similar rate but again it’s unknown how highly or not Harvick was played before the pre-race penalty.
- Paul Menard represents the best value play in the contest with his 41 points being on 6.2-percent of rosters in this large-field cash game.
- All drivers were rostered in this contest as well.
DraftKings Optimal Lineup
| Optimal Lineup | ||
|---|---|---|
| Joey Logano | 11100 | 117 |
| Ryan Blaney | 10300 | 96 |
| Clint Bowyer | 8600 | 60 |
| Daniel Suarez | 7300 | 51 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 6700 | 41 |
| Ty Dillon | 5800 | 40.5 |
| Total | $49,800 | 405.50 |
The late pivot choice off of Kevin Harvick in Joey Logano turned out to be the key piece to the optimal as Logano was the highest-scoring driver on DraftKings on Sunday. Some of the other favorites heading into the race in Ryan Blaney, Clint Bowyer, and Daniel Suarez were also in the lineup as all three topped 51 points in mid-tier salaries for the most part. For the first time this season there were actually two perfect lineups you could have played. Matt DiBenedetto and Paul Menard both scored 41 points at $6,700 and $6,900 respectively and both fit in the optimal since the one above is $200 under budget with DiBenedetto in it. The stage 1 winner in Ty Dillon rounds out the lineup with a very good showing at 40.5 points on the day. It was played in the large-field GPP and created a multiple-place tie for first.
FanDuel
Large-Field GPP
The “$60K NAS Intimidator” contest is the basis for this analysis with its 12,870 entries and paying out the top-2,875 finishing positions.
Money Line: 423.4 FA Cash Lineup: 385.6 FA GPP 1 Lineup: 407.3 FA GPP 2 Lineup: 331.00
| Driver | Pct. Played | Pts. Scored | Salary | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Busch | 32.3 | 108.1 | $15,000 | 7.21 |
| Kevin Harvick | 11.4 | 78 | $14,300 | 5.45 |
| Joey Logano | 15.3 | 104.6 | $14,000 | 7.47 |
| Brad Keselowski | 11.1 | 73.9 | $13,400 | 5.51 |
| Kyle Larson | 19.9 | 70.4 | $13,000 | 5.42 |
| Denny Hamlin | 15.8 | 86.7 | $12,300 | 7.05 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 21.6 | 76.9 | $12,000 | 6.41 |
| Chase Elliott | 27.8 | 78.8 | $11,800 | 6.68 |
| Kurt Busch | 34.6 | 102.5 | $11,500 | 8.91 |
| Ryan Blaney | 26.4 | 102.3 | $11,400 | 8.97 |
| Clint Bowyer | 17.2 | 86.9 | $11,000 | 7.90 |
| Aric Almirola | 11.2 | -11.2 | $10,600 | -1.06 |
| Erik Jones | 22.6 | 57.7 | $10,200 | 5.66 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 22.9 | 81 | $9,700 | 8.35 |
| Driver | Pct. Played | Pts. Scored | Salary | Value |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 25.2 | 40.5 | $9,000 | 4.50 |
| Alex Bowman | 10.9 | 63.2 | $8,500 | 7.44 |
| Daniel Suarez | 30.3 | 89 | $8,100 | 10.99 |
| Austin Dillon | 12.8 | 77.5 | $7,700 | 10.06 |
| Ryan Newman | 14.2 | 83 | $7,500 | 11.07 |
| William Byron | 14.5 | 68 | $7,300 | 9.32 |
| Paul Menard | 8.5 | 86.5 | $7,000 | 12.36 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 19.9 | 83.5 | $6,500 | 12.85 |
| Daniel Hemric | 3.6 | 58 | $6,300 | 9.21 |
| Chris Buescher | 13.3 | 70.3 | $6,200 | 11.34 |
| Ryan Preece | 7.9 | 68.1 | $6,000 | 11.35 |
| Ty Dillon | 13.8 | 81.1 | $5,500 | 14.75 |
| David Ragan | 6.8 | 70.3 | $5,000 | 14.06 |
| Driver | Pct. Played | Pts. Scored | Salary | Value |
| Bubba Wallace | 6.9 | 74.9 | $5,000 | 14.98 |
| Landon Cassill | 0.7 | 67 | $5,000 | 13.40 |
| Michael McDowell | 5.3 | 57.3 | $4,500 | 12.73 |
| Matt Tifft | 3.7 | 64.4 | $4,000 | 16.10 |
| Ross Chastain | 6 | 65.1 | $4,000 | 16.28 |
| Corey LaJoie | 3.6 | 36.8 | $3,500 | 10.51 |
| Reed Sorenson | 0.2 | 0 | $3,000 | 0.00 |
| Bayley Currey | 0.5 | 60.3 | $3,000 | 20.10 |
| Quin Houff | 0.9 | 58.6 | $3,000 | 19.53 |
| Cody Ware | 0 | 0 | $2,500 | 0.00 |
| Joey Gase | 0 | 0 | $2,500 | 0.00 |
| BJ McLeod | 0 | 0 | $2,000 | 0.00 |
Highlights
- Kurt Busch was the highest-owned drivers in the contest just ahead of his younger brother and eventual race winner Kyle Busch.
- Daniel Suarez was a popular choice at 30.3-percent having started P20 but showing top-five speed in practice.
- Chase Elliott led the group of six drivers in the 20-percent ownership section. His ownership was deflated due to the scoring on FanDuel not prioritizing laps led.
- Five of the seven drivers priced at $12K or above were owned between 19.9 and 11.1-percent led by Kyle Larson and brought up by Brad Keselowski.
- With the mid-tier salary values available this week the lower-salary guys weren’t played as much with Matt DiBenedetto being the only driver $6,500 or under owned on more than 15-percent of lineups with Ty Dillon being the next most-popular at 13.8-percent.
- Paul Menard represented the least-played, highest-scoring driver with his 86.5 points appearing on just 8.5-percent of lineups.
- All drivers that were actually in the field were played, the three cheapest didn’t race on Sunday.
FanDuel Optimal Lineup
| Optimal Lineup | ||
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Busch | $15,000 | 108.1 |
| Kurt Busch | $11,500 | 102.5 |
| Ryan Blaney | $11,400 | 102.3 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $6,500 | 83.5 |
| Ty Dillon | $5,500 | 81.1 |
| Total | $49,900 | 477.50 |
Three of the four drivers that scored 100-points or more in the race are in the lineup, the only that that isn’t is Joey Logano because his $14,000 price tag just didn’t provide the value the others did. Like most FanDuel lineups, position differential was the key contributor to the scoring with both Busch brothers, DiBenedetto, and Dillon providing big upside in that category and Kyle and Blaney tacking up laps led points, for what they’re worth on FanDuel, which isn’t much. This lineup was played atop the Intimidator and another multiple-place tie. The scoring was inflated this week because of the short track and number of laps that are run.