2018 NASCAR DFS Payline Analysis: TicketGuardian 500

The middle race of the NASCAR goes West part of the schedule provided a chance for Kevin Harvick to do something he’s never done in his career, win three in a row. He did. However it wasn’t as dominant as his previous two wins though he still had a very high score. Like Harvick’s streak, the Fantasy Alarm cash lineup has now won finished in the money three races in a row, so we will try and keep that roll going next week in Fontana.

NAS $25K Hot Rod (3 max entry)

Entry Fee - $3

Total prizes - $25,000  First place - $3,000

Total Entries – 9,908  Places paid – 2,420

Top Score – 369.75  Money Line – 274.5 Fantasy Alarm Lineups – 274 cash; 212.25 GPP1; 199.75 GPP2

This contest constituted the large-field GPP for the week and the ownership percentages bare that out. Only one driver was owned on more than 50%, that being Kevin Harvick at 55.26%. The only other one that was close to that was Brad Keselowski at 46.31%. I was on both of those drivers quite a bit this week given both of their histories here and Keselowski’s starting position of P25. The pole sitter, Martin Truex Jr. was rostered on 31.21 percent of the rosters with his 40.25 points paying decent dividends. The highest scorer of the race, Kyle Busch, was on just under a quarter of the rosters at 22.11% with his 111.5 really bolstering point totals. In fact the vast majority of the top-240 lineups had both Harvick and Busch on them, which led to the slightly inflated point totals. Further down the percentages we get to two guys I wrote up in the playbook in Clint Bowyer and his 62.5 points on 11.79% of rosters and William Byron on just about half of that amount at 6.34 percent and 37.75 points.

NAS $20K Brake Pad (Single Entry)

Entry Fee - $4

Total Prizes - $20,000  First Place - $1,000

Total Entries – 5,945  Places Paid – 1,605

Top Score – 380.25  Money Line – 270  Fantasy Alarm Lineups – 274 cash; 212.25 GPP1; 199.75 GPP2

Even though this was a smaller field GPP than the previous one, the percentages held nearly identical to the bigger one. Again, Kevin Harvick was the only driver to be owned on more than 50% of rosters at 57.22%. Brad Keselowski was the only driver in the 40s again and the second-most owned. Throughout the ownership listing the placement held true almost all the way down. Kyle Busch was slightly lower-owned at 20.37% as was Kyle Larson at 16.01% this time. Martin Truex Jr. was dropped below 30% at 29.92 in this contest. But Clint Bowyer and William Byron were on the same amount rosters towards the bottom of the list. All 37 drivers were rostered at least once with Justin Marks’ zero point day showing on .12% of lineups or seven total rosters.

NAS $5 Double-Up

Entry Fee - $5

Total Prizes - $100  1^st-10^th - $10

Total Entries – 23  Places Paid – 10

Top Score – 337  Money Line – 263.25  Fantasy Alarm Lineup – 274 cash

As is to be expected with cash games, the percentages for the elite choices are very high and the spread of played drivers is reduced. Only 21 of 37 drivers were rostered in this double-up game and five of them were owned at 50% or more. Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski were top two choices at 82.61% each while Michael McDowell, my favorite cheap play, was on 73.91 percent of six-driver lineups. The last two drivers owned on better than half the lineups were Aric Almirola (56.52) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (52.17).  Interestingly Martin Truex Jr. was still owned at 47.83% even though he was the pole sitter in a cash game. Typically playing the pole sitter on anything other than a short track in a cash game is an unusual strategy. Chase Elliott made 34.78% of rosters in the 23-entrant field and his 57-point day was a nice payoff for those rostering him. The highest-scoring driver, Kyle Busch, was on just 17.39% of lineups despite his upside potential at the track that was equal to Harvick’s. Clint Bowyer offered the best value for differentiating your roster with his 62.5 points on 8.7% of rosters or two overall which both finished in the top-five of scoring lineups.

Optimal Lineup

The best possible scoring lineup for the TicketGuardian 500 was:

Clearly the two highest scorers would be on the roster in Harvick and Busch with those two drivers getting up to 204 points right off the jump. Bowyer and Almirola made up the choices from the middle tier of pricing both at just over the $8k level but both providing a combined 114.5 points. Rounding out the roster that leaves $300 on the table is the youngster I liked a lot going into the race in Byron and a budget-play in Chastain who wasn’t overwhelmingly owned in any contest. If you’ve noticed the theme the last few weeks that a score of 380+ gets you in the range of perfection and yet again this week someone got within two points of this lineup.