NASCAR DFS: Bass Pro Shops Night Race Track Breakdown

It’s Bristol Baby!! For the first time this year, we can actually get excited about a “normal” Bristol race as the last time we were here this year it was covered in dirt. No Bristol race is normal, but back on the concrete high-banked surface is certainly a good feeling to have.

This will be an elimination race in the first round of the playoffs which means we will likely see more bold strategies and moves attempted than we normally see here and that could lead to more cautions throughout the night. It will certainly mean that those who are desperate to move on will try almost anything to make that happen. The starting order was set with the playoff drivers in the first 16 spots, based on standings, and then the regular formula took over for the rest of the 38-car field which means we may actually have some added PD upside from some drivers who should be starting higher had they not been slotted behind the 16 playoff drivers.

Tire Notes:

The tires on the Cup cars this weekend, of which they’ll have 10 sets for the race, are the same ones that were run here for all races in 2020. However, it is also the only time this year that they will have either of these tire codes on their cars so, in terms of finding comparable tracks with which they were used, we’re out of luck there.

Strategy Notes:

First off, let’s start by saying there was a bunch of strategy talk for the Cup race in the second half of the podcast for this week as the first half was spent talking about the 2022 schedule and Truck and Xfinity race breakdowns. Secondly, the key thing this weekend for building lineups is getting the laps-led dominators into your builds for cash and tournament lineups alike. There are 500 laps in this race with the stages being 125-125-250 and a comp caution after 40 laps. That means that even if two drivers lead every lap in the first two stages each, there’s still half the race left in laps to be led. In the last five races here, not including the dirt race earlier this year, we’ve seen two or three drivers lead 100 or more laps a race four times. This will be the highest scoring race of the year on both DFS sites and especially on DK where the PD upside combined with the around 330 dominator points available will make scores astronomically high. Speaking of PD, let’s be aware that this is a track in which getting lapped and staying at least a lap down is quite common. In the last five races here of the 500 lap variety, only 13 cars on average finished on the lead lap, however, there were as few as six and as many as 22 in that span. Either way, we look at it, no more than half the field will finish on the lead lap and perhaps as low as a third so drivers starting too far back might not make it as high as we need to hit value. That being said, there have been an average of eight drivers a race to have double-digit PD marks in the last five races here. A track we can use as a similar track this week is Dover due to the high banking and concrete surface even though it’s twice as long as Bristol in distance.

Facts To Know

• Only four drivers in the field have an average Driver Rating of 100 or more in the last five races.
• The only two drivers in the field to put up at least four top-10s in the last five races here are the brothers Busch. There are six total drivers to finish in the top-10 at least 60-percent of the time in that same span which includes Kyle Larson with two in his last three races.
• Nearly six drivers have led at least 20 laps, four have led 50 or more and at least two have led 100 or more per event.
• Only two drivers have top-15 rates above 80-percent in the last two races indicating that a lot of shuffling happens throughout the race with pit stops and cautions.
• Over the last five races here, 48-percent of the top-10 finishers have started outside of the top-12 starting spots, however, in just the last two races that figure is 60-percent (12-of-20).
• Half of the top-10 scoring starting spots are between P9 and P20 in the starting grid for both sites. Two or three of the top-10 scoring spots are between P1 and P7.
• The last five race winners from most recent to earlier started P4, P1, P1, P17, and P9.

The table below shows the number of drivers to reach each stat-type over the last five races Bristol races with Race 1 being the most recent.

For the tables below:

* The DFS Scoring Table: Race 1 is the most recent race in the sample size with Race 5 being the earliest. We are using the Last 5 Bristol races for the data.