Player: Keon Broxton
Team: Milwaukee Brewers
Position: OF
Current ADP: 217
Positional Rank: 57
The first few articles of this series focused on some veteran players who are being overlooked but this article we are going to take a look at the Brewers outfielder Keon Broxton who turned in quite the rookie season in 2016, hitting .242 with 28 runs, nine home runs, 19 RBI and 23 stolen bases over 75 games. Broxton has never been a highly-touted prospect and the Brewers are his third organization since being drafted in 2009 by the Diamondbacks but throughout his minor-league career he proved capable of providing double-digit home runs and stolen bases which is something all fantasy owners covet.
| Season | Team | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | BABIP | AVG | OBP | OPS |
| 2009 | Diamondbacks (R) | 72 | 297 | 11 | 38 | 37 | 6 | 6.4% | 31.3% | 0.331 | 0.246 | 0.302 | 0.776 |
| 2010 | Diamondbacks (A) | 133 | 603 | 5 | 74 | 32 | 21 | 10.8% | 28.5% | 0.328 | 0.228 | 0.316 | 0.675 |
| 2011 | Diamondbacks (A) | 20 | 85 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 8.2% | 35.3% | 0.375 | 0.231 | 0.294 | 0.576 |
| 2011 | Diamondbacks (A+) | 110 | 483 | 7 | 69 | 44 | 27 | 12.8% | 29.4% | 0.360 | 0.251 | 0.349 | 0.711 |
| 2012 | Diamondbacks (A+) | 130 | 536 | 19 | 84 | 62 | 21 | 7.5% | 25.4% | 0.332 | 0.267 | 0.326 | 0.763 |
| 2013 | Diamondbacks (AA) | 101 | 372 | 8 | 40 | 41 | 5 | 8.1% | 31.2% | 0.325 | 0.231 | 0.296 | 0.655 |
| 2014 | Pirates (AA) | 127 | 471 | 15 | 67 | 52 | 25 | 12.5% | 25.9% | 0.357 | 0.275 | 0.369 | 0.853 |
| 2015 | Pirates (AA) | 45 | 204 | 3 | 35 | 26 | 11 | 9.3% | 25.0% | 0.395 | 0.302 | 0.365 | 0.828 |
| 2015 | Pirates (AAA) | 88 | 367 | 7 | 51 | 42 | 28 | 12.8% | 28.6% | 0.356 | 0.256 | 0.352 | 0.776 |
| 2016 | Brewers (AAA) | 47 | 199 | 8 | 30 | 26 | 18 | 10.1% | 30.2% | 0.391 | 0.287 | 0.362 | 0.924 |
Broxton is currently going around pick 217 which, in standard formats, is about the 18th round. This may be a bit surprising for a player who is projected to hit towards the top half of a lineup and possess the skills to be a legitimate threat for 20+ home runs and 25 + stolen bases but that is because he does have his flaws. In 2016 Broxton struck out an insane 36.1-percent of the time last season. That strikeout rate is not an outlier as you can see from the chart above, Broxton struck out a ton during his minor-league career. Because of the high strikeout rate, Broxton owned a less than impressive .242 batting average over 75 games despite having a .373 BABIP. Typically, a BABIP that high would result in a batting average well above .300 but that was not the case with Broxton. Fortunately, a player with Broxton’s running ability are typically capable of maintaining a solid BABIP so while some regression is likely in 2017 it could still stay high enough that his batting average won’t completely kill your roster.
Broxton found himself in some impressive company in 2016 when it came to hard contact as he ranked 7th in baseball in average exit velocity.
| Rank | Batter | Avg Exit Velocity (mph) |
| 1 | Judge, Aaron | 96.8 |
| 2 | Cruz, Nelson | 96.2 |
| 3 | Stanton, Giancarlo | 95.9 |
| 4 | Holliday, Matt | 95.3 |
| 5 | Trumbo, Mark | 95 |
| 6 | Cabrera, Miguel | 95 |
| 7 | Broxton, Keon | 94.9 |
| 8 | Alvarez, Pedro | 94.8 |
| 9 | Sanchez, Gary | 94.6 |
| 10 | Ortiz, David | 94.5 |
Just take a look at the power hitters in that group. Now Broxton doesn’t exactly have that type of light tower power that guys like Stanton, Cruz or Ortiz possess but that type of hard contact will also help him keep a relatively high BABIP. Also being helped by that high exit velocity was Broxton’s power numbers as he owned a 25.7-percent home run-to-flyball rate in 2016. It’s likely that some regression is due in that department but with Broxton expected to get full-time at bats he should still hit for enough power to matter in all league formats.
As we have done in each article in this series, let’s take a look at the FanGraph projections for Broxton this season.
| Season | Team | G | AB | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | BABIP | AVG | OBP | OPS |
| 2017 | Depth Charts | 125 | 464 | 16 | 59 | 55 | 28 | 10.1% | 35.1% | 0.320 | 0.219 | 0.301 | 0.694 |
| 2017 | Steamer | 125 | 466 | 15 | 59 | 52 | 29 | 10.2% | 32.9% | 0.315 | 0.222 | 0.304 | 0.682 |
| 2017 | Fans (31) | 139 | 524 | 18 | 71 | 73 | 39 | 12.7% | 30.3% | 0.350 | 0.252 | 0.349 | 0.772 |
| 2017 | ZiPS | 124 | 417 | 16 | 54 | 52 | 25 | 10.0% | 37.3% | 0.325 | 0.216 | 0.297 | 0.705 |
| Average | 128.25 | 467.75 | 16.25 | 60.75 | 58 | 30.25 | 10.8% | 33.9% | 0.3275 | 0.22725 | 0.31275 | 0.713 |
So the first thing worth noticing is the fact that the average projection for Broxton comes out to him hitting .227 with 16 home runs and 30 stolen bases over 468 at bats. The batting average is certainly a bit concerning but the power/speed upside is definitely a plus for those in roto leagues. I also feel the 128 games played is a bit low as Broxton is slated to be an everyday outfielder for the Brewers. If Broxton does in fact get over the 500 at bat plateau a 20/30 season is very much in reach. A fair comparison for me would by that of Melvin Upton and while that name may make a few fantasy owners and Braves fans a bit upset the numbers do back up the comparison. During Upton’s days with the Rays he averaged 83 runs, 19 home runs, 71 RBI and 36 stolen bases while hitting .255. Upton also struck out 25-percent of the time. Upton was typically taken in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts during his prime years with that level of production and I feel that Broxton upside is somebody that is very capable of producing at the same level.