2017 Fantasy Baseball Deep Sleeper: Michael Pineda

Player: Michael Pineda

Team: New York Yankees

Position: Starting Pitcher

Current ADP: 229

Positional Rank: 65

2016 was a rough one for Michael Pineda as he went 6-12 with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP over 175.2 innings.  The ERA and WHIP were both the worst of his career and Pineda’s struggles were also self-inflicted as his BB% more than doubled from 2015 to 2016, jumping from 3.1 percent to 7.0 percent and his BB/9 rate went from 1.18 to 2.72.  Pineda also saw his HR/FB rate jump to 17 percent in 2016 as he allowed more hard contact and fly balls than his previous season. 

But there are some stats from 2016 that have me cautiously optimistic for Pineda this upcoming season which make him an interesting sleeper candidate in 2017.

First off, while Pineda owned a 4.82 ERA he also had a 3.80 FIP, 3.30 xFIP and a 3.40 SIERA.  For those not familiar FIP, xFIP and SIERA, they essentially show that Pineda was pitching better than his actual numbers would indicate.  Looking at those stats, particularly his 3.40 SIERA, you will notice that Pineda was on par with some of the games top pitchers and while I am not trying to say he is exactly like the guys he is grouped with I do think it shows he is capable of being a much better than he has been.

Another positive from the 2016 season came in form of health as Pineda has been plagued by injury concerns throughout his career but he did finally hit the 30-start plateau, making 32 starts for the Yankees last season.  Over those 32 starts Pineda was a strikeout machine, totaling 207 strikeouts over 175.2 innings.  His K/9 rate of 10.61 was the highest of his career and was an increase from the 8.74 K/9 rate he posted in 2015.  Pineda also showed improvements in the second half of the season as his ERA dropped from 5.38 in the first half to 4.15 in the second half while maintaining his solid K-rate and lowering his WHIP slightly.

In 2016 Pineda suffered some bad luck and that bad luck came in the form of a .339 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) which was the second highest mark in all of baseball.  That type of mark coupled with his increased walk rate lead to some tough outings and was ultimately the reason his ERA sat around 4.82 and not what his FIP or SIERA numbers would suggest he was pitching at.

As we did with the first article of this series, let’s look at the FanGraphs projections for Pineda this upcoming season.

As I mentioned a few paragraphs ago heath has been a major issue for Pineda during his career and just one of those projections have him making 30 starts.  Naturally, given my recommendation of him as a sleeper I do believe that he will stay healthy and make those 30 + starts.  As you will notice all four projections expect his BABIP to drop back down and for his ERA to drop nearly a full point while owning a solid FIP.  His K/9 rate does drop a bit but fantasy owners will not be upset with a K/9 rate that approaches 10, especially if it is leading to a drop in WHIP which is also projected.  In a standard 12-team league you can grab Pineda around the 19^th round. I repeat you can grab a pitcher coming off a 200-strikeout season with a FIP and SIERA that indicated he pitched much better than his actual numbers in the 19^th round.   For me, I am going to target Pineda a few rounds earlier than the 19^th round as I am a believer that at still just 28 years old his best season is yet to come.