Top Tier
Jacob deGrom, NYM - I mean, he is far and away the best pitcher in baseball. We just saw this matchup in his very last start and he dominated, tossing seven shutout innings while striking out 11. Little reason to think the Padres will all of a sudden get to deGrom here tonight. Of course, his dominance doesn't guarantee the win as the Mets offense tends to score for him and they need to deal with Blake Snell who just tossed a one-hitter against the Mets in his last start.
Brandon Woodruff, MIL - Woodruff has been phenomenal for the Brewers this season and the Pirates are among the worst offenses in all of baseball. Milwaukee is a big favorite to get the win today which is good news for Woodruff. The only downside to this matchup is the fact that for some reason, despite all their poor offensive numbers, the Pirates have one of the lower team strikeout rates in baseball right now so that number may not pop today.
Clayton Kershaw, LAD - The Dodgers are the biggest favorite on the board tonight as they get a Rangers team heading into LA and will be without their DH. Kershaw has been hittable of late, allowing 10 earned runs on 15 hits over his last two starts but Texas should present a "get right" outing for him. If not looking to spend all the way up, I think he offers a similar upside.
Mid-Tier
Blake Snell, SD - Snell has an elite K/9, sitting at a career best 13.33 mark but the issue this season has been just about everything else. That was of course, until his last start against these very Mets when Snell tossed seven shutout innings of one-hit baseball while striking out 10. Things to worry about tonight with Snell is his overall inconsistency, the Mets offense slowly coming alive, and the fact that deGrom is the pitcher opposite of him today.
Sandy Alcantara, MIA - Over the last 30 days no team in baseball has a higher strikeout rate against RHP than the Atlanta Braves with a mark of 30.3%. That is a large number and good news for Alcantara who is not generally considered to be a strikeout pitcher. In DFS that only helps his overall ceiling and floor for that matter. The Marlins offense is starting to click now that Starling Marte is back healthy. I like Alcantara today as a contrarian play.
Tarik Skubal, DET - The Tigers offense will have their work cutout for them tonight against Giolito but that shouldn't keep you off Skubal who is starting to really impress. In his last start against these same White Sox he had 11 strikeouts. He has at least eight strikeouts in five of his last six starts and has picked up the win in three of his last four.
Ryan Yarbrough, TB - You never know how the Rays are going to handle their starting pitchers so there is certainly a risk that after throwing a complete game against the Yankees last time out that he gets lifted after four innings today due to some pitch count we aren't aware of. That said, I like going at the Orioles offense and Yarbrough faced them already, allowing just two runs over six innings.
Value Tier
Jose Urquidy, HOU - I like Urquidy today because the Astros are heavy favorites to win. Sure, things have been up and down at times this season but on a whole he has pitched well and the Twins lineup has a lot of holes in it. Prior to his last outing, Urquidy had gone five straight appearances of allowing no more than two earned runs.