The MLB season is quickly approaching so now is when you start to prep for your fantasy baseball draft. A major component to a successful draft is the ability to maximize value in the later rounds. There are a few ways to do this, so let’s take a look, while keeping in mind that ultimately each fantasy player will develop their own strategy as the draft wears on.
Draft for Need
This is the most obvious one, right? In this scenario, you should head into your draft with a few players you are comfortable with as a starter. If you end up deciding to completely punt a position, or if things just do not go as expected during your draft, at least you have them as a safety net. It’s important to have these players in mind as you get towards the later rounds where the statistical separation between players is less obvious than in early rounds. Often these players specialize in one specific stat such as stolen bases or home runs. These players may not completely “wow” you across the board, but they can certainly get the job done and contribute to a winning fantasy team. In this past season players like Rajai Davis, Adam Duvall and Melky Cabrera all went in in the second half of fantasy drafts. Davis of course is known for his stolen base ability, Duvall was coming off a breakout season which saw him hit 33 home runs with 100 RBI and Cabrera offered fantasy owners a decent batting average with some power and RBI production. Only Rajai Davis failed to be a starting caliber player during the 2017 fantasy baseball season as Duvall backed up his breakout 2016 campaign with 31 home runs and 99 RBI while Cabrera hit .285 with 78 runs, 17 home runs and 85 RBI.
Draft For Upside
This is likely the route many will take come the later rounds. It’s all about the sleepers am I right? 2017 was a goldmine for those who bought the hype on guys like Aaron Judge, Jake Lamb, Robbie Ray and Marcell Ozuna, just to name a few. Some of these guys had flashed upside before like Lamb and Ozuna while Ray had the peripheral stats to suggest that a breakout season was on the horizon. Aaron Judge is in a category of his own. The power upside was clear, but NOBODY figured he would hit his weight never mind tear the cover off the ball for half a season and finish second in the MVP voting. Of course, there is plenty of risk when drafting for upside and that is if the player doesn’t pan out like Yoan Moncada who fantasy owners took late in drafts but never saw him reach the potential that had him ranked as the top prospect in baseball. There are other misses as well like Pirates rookie Tyler Glasnow who was unable to find the strike zone at the major league level despite his elite level of success in the minors. Something to keep in mind… The safest way to draft for upside is to look for players like Marcell Ozuna or Robbie Ray – players who have previously shown breakout fantasy ability combined with some peripheral stats on their side, which would indicate a breakout season could very well be on the horizon.
Take A Risk
Often you will find players ranked much lower in drafts coming off a bad or injury plagued season. Depending on when you draft you could find players who get injured during Spring Training slip into the later rounds. This is your chance to take that risk and draft a player at a discounted rate if you believe a bounce back is in order. A perfect candidate who could fit right into this scenario for this upcoming season is Kyle Schwarber. Opinions on Schwarber vary across the fantasy industry but his home run upside is for real. Hitting in the Cubs lineup also provides both RBI and run scoring opportunities, while after an abysmal first half last season he went on to hit a respectable .253 with an OPS of .894 after the All-Star break. The question here is whether he can sustain the production we saw him finish the year with because if the answer to that question is yes than you are getting a bargain at his likely ADP.
Indians pitcher Danny Salazar is another perfect risk taking option for this upcoming fantasy season. The injury history is real with him and quite frankly is a serious red flag, however in terms of raw talent it is going to be tough to find a more talented starting pitcher in the later rounds of your draft. Prior to the All-Star break last season Salazar was a mess, going 3-5 with a 5.40 ERA over 12 games (10 starts). The Indians put him on the DL and sent him on a lengthy rehab stint. Post All-Star break Salazar went 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA over 11 games (9 starts). He had 68 strikeouts over 48 innings during that stretch. When healthy this guy has the talent of a No.1 fantasy starter but he of course comes with immense risk.
Draft A Soon-to-Be-Closer
This one is more aligned with common fantasy strategy, but it is still worth noting. There is little reason to waste middle-round picks on the elite closers when someone like Alex Colome is finishing with a league-leading 47 saves or Corey Knebel, who didn’t take over the closer’s role until May 14th, went on to be a top-five closer. Saves are always going to be available in your league so do not pay for them. Use those late-round picks on middle relievers who have strong ratios, good strikeout upside and the potential to take over the job should their team’s ninth-inning man falter. There are a number of teams who have a closer tabbed, but maybe not for too long. Look at the Twins, who brought in Fernando Rodney. We’ve been up and down this road with Rodney for the last several seasons, so when Minnesota brought in Addison Reed as insurance, he should have immediately landed on your radar as a potential last-round pick.
So let’s be clear, there is no right and wrong answer on how to maximize value in the later rounds of your fantasy baseball draft but being prepared for that draft and the final few rounds will put you in the best position to be successful. And the best way to be prepared for your fantasy baseball draft, in my opinion, is to participate in mock drafts, specifically the Mock Draft Army run by Howard Bender. To sign up for the Mock Draft Army send an email to mockdraftarmy@yahoo.com. The mocks haven’t started yet, but now is a good time to jump on board. It’s a real mock draft with real players that stay for the entire draft.