eStar v FunPlus Phoenix

Invictus Gaming v Rogue Warriors  

 

This is a shorter slate with big implications. There have been some serious surprises thus far about which teams are succeeding and those who are failing. This slate feels a little chalky which means I can almost guarantee this is n’t going to play out like normal. Either way, we are watching the LPL which means we should expect some serious fireworks!  

 

Game #1 eStar v FunPlus Phoenix

Cann’s Pick: FunPlus Phoenix

 

Game #2: Invictus Gaming v Rogue Warriors

Cann’s Pick: Invictus Gaming

 

Game #1 Hanwha Life Esports v Fredit BRION

Cann’s Pick: Hanwha Life Esports

 

Game #1 DWG KIA v Gen.G

Cann’s Pick: DWG KIA

 

Fantasy Value Breakdown

Captain

 

Favorite: Lwx (FPX: $12,300) I honestly may sell my kidneys to guarantee I get Lwx as my captain moving forward. He has 56 kills in 9 games and only 13 deaths. His opponent (rat) is in the 30’s in terms of kills. FPX as a team should have an easy time against eStar and usually enjoy kill happy games. I give this a pretty big thumbs up here. 

 

Value Pick: Deft (HLE: $11,700) In their win over Gen.G, HLE showed the promise that people expected from this team. Deft is the kill leader for the LCK on this slate (60) and has been an anchor for damage on this HLE squad (23.6%). My expectation is for this to be a fast 2-0 on the side of HLE, that being said… this split has been hard to pin down.

 

Top Lane

 

Favorite: Nuguri (FPX: $6,600) DraftKings agrees with my analysis on this pick by making a $1,600 difference between Nuguri and the eStar top laner in zs. This is with a kill difference of +1 for zs and +5 in the assist column. Why the difference? It is the fact that eStar has not played the same quality of competition (BLG, RW, OMG, and IG) and zs has still struggled to put up decent numbers. Nuguri should have a good day at the office today. 

 

Value Pick: TheShy (IG: $5,800) TheShy has been so hit or miss this year. Some of the reason Invictus Gaming has had some of the losses they have had this year stems directly from TheShy being TheShy in his overcommits on fights and 1v1 plays. In games against slower more methodical teams, this gets heavily punished but against the likes of RW, TheShy will be fine. RW like early fights and many times looks for those same skirmishes. What makes me more comfortable with this pick is actually the IG mid laner in Rookie and his ability to create MASSIVE leads in the mid lane which takes the pressure off of TheShy. Should be a solid pick up at a cheap price. 

 

Jungle

 

Favorite: Arthur (HLE: $7,000) Arthur is one of the most pleasant surprises for this HLE squad. He is posting a 4+ KDA and is sitting with 46 kills on the year. In comparison, the BRION jungler (UmTI) only has 18 total kills. Some of this does stem from very weak laners for BRION but Arthur just is more natural in finishing kills in ganks which makes this pricier pick worth it. 

 

Value Pick: Canyon (DWG: $6,800)  When was the last time you found a defending World Champion this cheap? Gen.G is decent, but like I said two matches ago… their record is overinflated. While they took care of T1 they then turned around and fell to HLE 0-2 in their next match. I expect this series should go 2-0 but I think Gen.G could sneak in a win. This will be close, but DWG should pick up this win. 

 

Mid Lane

 

Favorite: Chovy (HLE: $7,800) Chovy has 15 more kills than both Bdd and ShowMaker. That stat blows my mind. Chovy is quietly establishing himself as the highest producing mid laner in the LCK and this slate he has a pretty easy matchup against the last place Fredit BRION. He should get good numbers here. 

 

Value Pick: ShowMaker (DWG: $7,200) This may be the cheapest price you can get the best player on the planet at. DWG Kia is now starting the more difficult stretch of games and they can make a statement against Gen.G. Bdd is an interesting mid laner in the sense that he has games where he will completely own the map and Gen.G could win 4v5 but the other games he is a complete liability. The guess here is how many of the Bdd stinkers do we get in this match.   

 

ADC

 

Favorite: Lwx (FPX: $8,200) See captain role breakdown. What I will say is this price tag with no multiplier is probably not worth it. $8,200 is a pretty big hit to the salary in a slate with plenty of good ADCs.

 

Value Pick: Wink (IG: $ 7,600) Wink is the forgotten part of the Invictus Gaming because he is overshadowed by their other pieces. He has a 6.4 KDA and generally must be Rookie’s best friend because he doesn't create messes for him to clean up. He has racked up a respectful 34 kills thus far and is playing into one of the weakest ADCs in the LPL.  

 

Support

 

Favorite: Crisp (FPX: $5,600) This is a stack I will advocate for every time FPX is on the slate. Crisp is such a good support and a lot of Lwx’s success should be credited to him. He has 83 assists and a 4.4 KDA this season. A lot of FPX’s possible success hinges on his ability to perform at this level and deliver Lwx into the late game. He is averaging just under 60 FPPG which is a great number in his role and someone should be a quick pick up if you can afford him.

 

Value Pick: Baolan (IG: $5,400) I think Baolan is the support version of TheShy. He has a 2.4 KDA but also is part of 70% of all of IG’s kills. He is unpredictable but also one of the most exciting supports to watch because of his desire to make the plays himself. He will give you heart attacks when you play him, but doesn’t that make him a more fun pick up anyway?

 

Team

 

Favorite: Invictus Gaming ($5,600) While this team can be difficult to get a read on, this should be a pretty safe pick up here. Rogue Warriors cannot close out a game to save their lives. They aren’t smart enough to play through macro-strategy but not skilled enough to just team fight their way through late game. Invictus is the latter and I think that is how we will see this play out. In their games IG will win through 2-3 massive team fights in the late game and they will slam the door in RW’s face. 

 

Value Pick: Gen.G ($4,600) This series will be close (even if it ends up 2-0 going in either direction). What makes this a decent pick up is their in-game strategy is heavily objective focused. This is how you score big points in this role. I could see Gen.G losing but still picking up decent points here. 

 

Cann’s Example Lineup

DraftKings Classic 

$50,000 Salary Cap

 

Captain (x1.5): Lwx ($12,300)

Alternate: Chovy ($11,700)

Top: TheShy ($5,800)

Jungle: Arthur ($7,000)

Alternate: Canyon ($6,800)
Mid: Bdd ($6,800)

ADC: Wink ($7,600)

Alternate: Ruler ($7,000)

Support: BeryL ($5,200)

Team: DWG Kia ($5,200)