NASCAR DFS: MBS 300 Playbook & Example Lineups

Well last week certainly provided plenty of excitement. It was a pretty frustrating week for DFS, I’m not going to lie. The lack of practice and qualifying, the wrecks, the inability to pass the leader under green was incredibly difficult and ultimately just didn’t make for the most exciting racing at Kentucky. But we trudge forward to another 1.5-mile track with Texas Motor Speedway this weekend. There were some rumblings that NASCAR was considering moving this race to Charlotte for safety concerns amidst the pandemic. Alas, we’ve got racing in Texas this weekend.

Texas Motor Speedway is a 1.44-mile tri-oval that’s similar to Charlotte and Atlanta, but it doesn’t eat through tires like Atlanta does. We can pull data from those tracks as well to get an idea of what drivers we should be looking at that have run well at these run-of-the-mill 1.5-mile tracks. You could also argue that it’s similar to Vegas although Vegas is a little flatter, but definitely look at histories for Atlanta and Charlotte as well. This is an interesting race because over the last couple years, Texas has had two races; one in the Spring and one in the Fall for the playoffs. This year, given the circumstances of a global pandemic, we get a Summer race at Texas so you better believe the track will be hotter than normal.

When looking at the table below you’ll notice a lack of significant statistics for the field. In a normal year this is a race where we’ll tend to see Cup drivers mix it up with the Xfinity drivers. For example, Kyle Busch has won this race at the Xfinity level nine times throughout his career including in the Spring races of 2019 and 2016 as a full-time Cup series driver. And, in general, a lot of the guys who have recently dominated at this track in Xfinity are now in the Cup level (although we’re getting Busch in Saturday’s Xfinity and Truck races). Even Kevin Harvick has dipped his toe in racing 1.5-mile tracks at Xfinity in recent years. This is just one of those tracks the Cup drivers can’t stay away from. Here’s what we’re looking at:

Hence why the table for this week looks like this:

Driver Pool

Kyle Busch ($17,000; Starting P28) – I’d be the dumbest person in the history of dumb people to leave Kyle Busch out of the Playbook. He’s going to race Saturday in Xfinity and he’ll offer plenty of position differential starting P28. At the Cup level, Busch has won at Texas three times and he’s led a healthy dosage of laps. At the Xfinity level he’s won at this track nine times. NINE. He’s won from the pole. He’s won from starting outside the Top 30. He’s won from all over. He’s looking for every advantage he can get for the Cup level. There’s the stigma that Busch hasn’t been good this year, but in his three previous Xfinity races he hasn’t finished worse than third and he’s led at least 45 laps in each race. At Charlotte he started 18^th and finished first and led 94 laps. The price tag is what will make him an interesting play because it’s HIGH. I’m going to lock him into at least 40% of my GPP lineups and probably my Cash lineup as well. Don’t fade the guy strictly because he’s had an off year at the Cup level. He’s been a solid play capable of 6X-7X value in Xfinity and the Truck series. He needs 85 points for 5X value. So, in addition to winning the race he needs to lead about 24 laps with a dozen fastest laps to hit that minimum. He certainly can do it as we’ve previously seen him at these absurd price tags on DraftKings. Let’s not forget that in the Xfinity and Truck series he’s been plagued by speeding on pit road. That’s no reason to fade him, but it is worth mentioning in case you want to limit exposure to maybe 30% of you Xfinity builds.

Austin Cindric ($10,800; Starting P3) – He’s coming off his first two career wins at 1.5-mile tracks last weekend at Kentucky. While that track differs from Texas, he’s no stranger to running well at this track either. Last November he started 14^th and finished third while leading 38 laps as well. He’s typically performed better at the Fall race at Texas, but in general he does well at these tracks. Last month at Atlanta he won the first two stages and led 68 laps despite finishing 16^th and he also led 30 laps at Charlotte. He will be chalk for this race given the momentum he has at the moment and his solid resume at these basic 1.5-mile tracks.

Chase Briscoe ($11,300; Starting P12) – Call me crazy, but Briscoe might be a contrarian play this weekend(?) At the most basic 1.5-mile tracks like Texas, his resume is pretty pedestrian. Last month he led 40 laps at Atlanta but finished ninth. He’s never finished in the Top 10 at Charlotte and he’s actually gone backwards at that track. In three races at Texas he has just one Top 10 finish. It’s a little odd that he’s struggled at these basic tracks especially being a Stewart-Haas Racing driver where even the Cup drivers have done very well at 1.5-mile tracks. But he’s still worth ownership because of the dominance he’s shown this year with five wins to his credit. He just hasn’t put it together at these 1.5-mile tracks unfortunately.

Noah Gragson ($10,400; Starting P9) – So this is actually one of his weaker tracks historically. In March of 2019 he started P16 and finished 13^th, but led 13 laps. And then in the Fall he wrecked and finished 30^th. But he did finish second at Atlanta and 11^th at Charlotte. Overall, he’s decent at 1.5-mile tracks and he’s capable of being in the mix by the end of Stage 3. I won’t go crazy with exposure because I’m more excited about some other guys in the Playbook, but he’s worthy of making some lineups.

Ross Chastain ($10,000; Starting P8) – Chastain doesn’t have the greatest history at Texas, but most of his previous rides were with JD Motorsports and while they’re an okay Xfinity team, he’s clearly in a better ride with Kaulig Racing. And Kaulig’s cars have been very fast this year as we’ve seen from Chastain, Justin Haley, and A.J. Allmendinger. Last Fall at Texas he started P7, finished second and led almost 30 laps. He got a Top 5 finished at Charlotte and led 68 laps and he has momentum coming into this race. He has eight straight Top 10 finishes and he’s finished in the Top 5 in five of his last six races. I really like the Watermelon Man this week and will try to be heavier on him than the field. With Kyle Busch in the field, Chase Briscoe offering PD, and Austin Cindric coming in with momentum, we may get Chastain at lower ownership.

Harrison Burton ($9,400; Starting P7) – I’m hoping the speed carries over from last weekend because he looked pretty impressive despite back-to-back finishes outside the Top 10. He logged a Top 10 finish here last November and finished fifth at Atlanta and ninth at Charlotte. He’s got a Brad Keselowski-esque vibe to him for Xfinity. It’s tough to get a read on him, but he’s capable of stealing a win like he did at Miami. If the speed carries over to Texas he could be a slightly contrarian play.

Justin Allgaier ($9,700; Starting P4) – You just don’t know what you’re going to get with this guy. He can be an absolute train wreck at times. He somehow came through for a miraculous Top 5 finish at Kentucky last Friday. I’m hoping that provides some momentum for him. He finished fifth at Charlotte and then sixth at Atlanta back in June so he can do well on these 1.5-mile tracks. He has three straight Top 12 finishes at Texas with two of those resulting in the top six. Ownership could be lighter on him because he’s strictly a GPP play that a lot of DFS players may avoid because he’s more likely to kill your lineup than he is to break the slate.

Jeremy Clements ($8,700; Starting P22) – I’m a little nervous about Clements this week. There’s no doubt he’s looked great this year. Since the season started back up he’s finished 13^th or better in 8 of the 11 races. He’s been a PD fiend as long as he avoid accidents. Historically at Texas, he has a mixed bag of results. He finished outside the Top 25 in both Texas races last year, but in 2018 he finished 14^th and 16^th. That 14^th-place finish was his career-best finish here. He may not improve upon that this weekend as this has been a tricky track for him, but he’s churning out a career season for himself.

Anthony Alfredo ($8,300; Starting P10) – Alfredo is in the illustrious 21-car for RCR and he’s driven it well this season. It’s been him and Myatt Snider piloting it and I much prefer Alfredo this week over Snider. Alfredo offers a little PD from this spot, but at the same time, how much? He’s finished sixth in three of the last four races including back-to-back races at Kentucky last week. We’d love to see him get to the front and lead some laps especially because the price tag has reached over $9K the last couple weeks and he could really hit 6X value if he can get to the front. I’ll throw him in a few builds hoping for a Top 3 finish, but I’ll temper expectations.

Justin Haley ($8,100; Starting P11) – Haley has been red hot lately. He’s finished in the Top 7 in five of his last six races including a very impressive performance in both races at Kentucky. He also finished third at Atlanta earlier this Summer and in March of 2019 he started P11 and finished seventh at Texas. His car has looked fantastic lately so I’m on board with Haley this week.

Tommy Joe Martins ($7,500; Starting P36) – Tommy Joe is once again a GPP play this week. The only person starting behind him is Stephen Leicht and he’s likely to start & park. Tommy Joe has had some bad luck to go with his poor performances. He struggles to finish races because his equipment sucks. His price will be inflated by DraftKings because of where he’s starting. Despite the upside from the starting spot, keep the ownership in check. There might be cheaper guys starting in a similar spot that you may feel better about finishing the race.

Brett Moffitt ($7,100; Starting P15) – Moffitt’s one of my bigger question marks this weekend. I will probably play Brandon Brown over him in more lineups, but Moffitt showed at Charlotte that he could go out and finish sixth and even Atlanta got him a 14^th-place finish. He hasn’t run at Texas in the Xfinity series, but he has four races under his belt here at Texas. A finish in the Top 12 can get him 5X value and if he can duplicate the Charlotte performance that would be over 6X value.

Brandon Brown ($6,700; Starting P19) – Brown’s a cheaper pivot off Moffitt that offers more PD upside. The results at Texas won’t jump off the page at you; 17^th, 18^th, and 25^th but he’s been yielding better results this year than any previous season. Earlier this season he finished 8^th at Charlotte and 12^th at Atlanta. A Top 15 finish can get him very close to 5X value.

Ryan Sieg ($6,500; Starting P18) – Sieg has not benefitted well from the lack of practice and qualifying. Never has that been more evident than looking at his Driver Averages profile. In five races prior to the season going on hiatus, he didn’t finish worse than 11^th. Now he has just one top ten finish which came in the first race at Kentucky, but in general he’s suffered from being unable to get on the track and make adjustments to his car. But what we need to keep in mind is that he’ll be starting further back in the field this week. He fell out of the Top 12 in owners points and now comes with a little more PD starting P18. Since 2015, in ten races at Texas he hasn’t finished outside the Top 20. Last year he grabbed a pair of top ten finishes as well. Now he didn’t perform well at Charlotte or Atlanta last month, but we’ll take a shot in GPP’s. Ownership may be up a little bit since the starting spot will be more friendly for DFS purposes, but ultimately it could still be quite low since he’s had his struggles the last two months.

Josh Williams ($6,400; Starting P24) – Williams is a sneaky mid-range play that may go under-owned. In both Texas races in 2019 he started outside the Top 20 and finished inside the Top 15. Similarly, last Fall he started in the exact same spot as this upcoming race and pulled off a 14^th-place finish for +10 position differential points. He’s had some decent success at 1.5-mile tracks in the 92-car. He finished 15^th at the second Kentucky race, and he finished 14^th at Charlotte a couple months back after starting 21^st. I like him quite a bit for GPP lineups and I’m not necessarily opposed to using him in Cash games as well.

Joe Graf Jr. ($6,300; Starting P25) – This is tough for Graf because I was really hoping he’d start outside the Top 30. He didn’t have a great showing at Atlanta after he finished one spot ahead of where he started, but he did get a Top 20 at Charlotte last month. He’s coming off a couple Top 25 runs at Kentucky so there’s a little momentum. He’s okay in GPP’s, but I’m nervous about using him for Cash games.

Vinnie Miller ($6,200; Starting P34) – Once again, I love this spot for Miller. He tends to make for a great PD play when he starts outside the Top 30 as we saw last Thursday at Kentucky. In both races at Texas last year he started P34 and finished in the Top 25 for both races. In the Fall of 2018, he started 36^th and finished 27^th. So even if he can simply repeat last year’s performance he’s a damn good value play and it he can somehow get a Top 20 then he could play a big role in GPP’s.

Chad Finchum ($6,000; Starting P29) – Here’s a guy we don’t talk about that much, but I’m pretty intrigued by him this week. Finchum is actually sneaky good at Texas. In his last three races at this track he hasn’t finished worse than 23^rd, and last Fall he finished 15^th after starting P28. So he can move up here and the starting spot should work in his favor. I also like that he’s starting in the row behind his teammate, Timmy Hill, and coincidentally Kyle Busch is starting next to Hill. So either way, I’m hoping Finchum works with his teammate or just follows Busch through the field. As far as Timmy Hill is concerned, I’m not opposed to playing him, but I’d like him more if he were starting outside the Top 30. That being said, he’s looked solid in the 61-car so he remains an okay GPP play, but I think Finchum might be a little more contrarian this weekend with more upside.

Colby Howard ($5,700; Starting P35) – Everybody is going to take advantage of Howard’s starting spot this week. Or at the very least, they should. His engine overheated at Charlotte, but at Atlanta he started 34^th and finished 15^th. He had a decent showing at Kentucky’s first race before he got in an accident late in the race after he was running in the Top 20. He started 32^nd in the second Kentucky race and moved up to finish 21^st. He’s had some solid performances in this car and he can’t really lose too much PD from this starting spot. A wreck would ruin his day (as it would for most drivers), but he’s in a great spot to return value and works well in your Kyle Busch lineups.

Jesse Little ($5,200; Starting P20) – DraftKings has screwed up the pricing the last few weeks on Little. Ever since they dropped him below $7,000 he’s been a pretty decent value even if he isn’t really gaining position differential. When he’s started in the Top 15 priced under $5,000 he’s been a decent target since he could go backwards a few spots and not kill you. Even at $5,200 from this starting spot he’s a solid value play in GPP’s. Coming into Texas he has four straight Top 20 finishes including a couple Top 15’s. A month ago he finished 20^th at Atlanta and 15^th at Charlotte so if DK screws up the pricing we will take advantage once again. He also has a pretty decent history at Texas in the Truck series with a couple Top 13 finishes over the last two years. Little isn’t a bad guy to utilize in your Kyle Busch lineups with Colby Howard. If Little moves up one spot and finishes 19^th, that’s 5X value. A Top 15 finish would exceed 6X value.

Kyle Weatherman ($5,100; Starting P33) – Since Pocono, Kyle Weatherman has driven the 47-car for Mike Harmon Racing very well. In the last four races he has three Top 15 finishes after starting outside the Top 25 in those three races. The second Kentucky race didn’t go so well since he started P8 and wrecked early on. But he has still done very well in this car lately and he’s starting outside the Top 30 once again. We love the PD differential here so take advantage in this spot. A Top 25 finish would easily return 5X value for Weatherman.

Example Lineups

I am in the business of full disclosure and I am not exactly sure if I'm going to play Cash contests today. I may throw a little money at Cash contests, but Kyle Busch will be about 90% owned in Cash and from there the KB-Cash lineups will look very similar since DFS players have to basically play the same guys in order to fit Busch in.

Kyle Busch Cash Example

Kyle Busch GPP Example

Non-Kyle Busch Cash Example

Non-Kyle Busch GPP Example