NASCAR DFS Playbook: Foxwoods Resort Casino 301

I’m subbing in for Selz this week as he’s busy packing to move and starting his vacation and all that juicy stuff. I had a pretty good day for Saturday’s Xfinity race so I’m looking to keep that momentum rolling into the Cup series race. 

Weather will be worth watching on Sunday. The rain played a threat in Saturday’s Xfinity series race, but luckily it didn’t interrupt. However, that’s not as much of a lock for Sunday’s action. It looks like rain could play a role all day Sunday leading into Monday. So if they start this race, I am building some of my lineups with the mindset that we could only see two stages. Which is great because my bankroll would be significantly heavier if NASCAR’s races were 30-40% shorter this season.

Be sure to check out Selz’s Track Breakdown for Sunday’s race. We get a full breakdown of this short-ish flat track and we have plenty of data and previous races to consider. We have 301 laps to look at on Sunday (unless of course the rain changes things) and the stages will be broken into 75-110-116 segments with a competition caution after about 30 laps or so. We have over 200 dominator points on the table so approaching our roster construction with one or two dominators seems wise.

Driver Pool

Kyle Larson ($11,200 DK; $14,000 FD) – Easily in play on Sunday. The Hendrick cars have been fast every week and he’s priced down which is odd considering he’s starting P10. I don’t think we see Larson get to the front in the first stage, but he could dominate the rest of the race. And I repeat, he’s priced down on DraftKings and offering some PD. Larson got caught up in an accident the last time he was here, but in worse equipment he has four finishes in the top three here. I’m comfortable playing him in both formats.

Kyle Busch ($10,900 DK; $12,500 FD) – Kyle Busch has found his mojo. He’s rolling in with four straight finishes in the top three and his car has arguably been the best in the Cup series dating back to Pocono. It’s the Kyle Busch we all know and love. He’s running up front, complaining about his car despite it being awesome, the fans in the stands are giving him the bird. All is right in the world. And historically, Busch has been great here and JGR has been solid in this package. He’s on the pole for Sunday’s race and could dominate the first stage and finish well as long as his team has the right setup.

William Byron ($10,600 DK; $11,000 FD) – Byron’s hit a bit of a skid over his last three races after he had that impressive run of 11 straight finishes in the top ten. He’s done okay at New Hampshire, but doesn’t have a top ten under his belt. This is the fastest his car has been and he’s made the most of it. The price tag is a bit daunting, but I’ll take it. If he gets some fastest laps and a top five he’ll hit value. In this package on similar tracks he’s pulled out some top tens this year.

Kevin Harvick ($10,300 DK; $11,300 FD) – Harvick has historically run great here. That’s why he’s making the Playbook. Will I be playing a lot of him? Probably not, but I will get some exposure. In his last six races here he’s won three times and grabbed five top five’s. He’s also no stranger to leading 100+ laps here. For me, his performance in this package has been fine. SHR has performed well in this package this year. Harvick finished sixth at Phoenix and ninth at Martinsville. However, he’s led a total of 50 laps all year and at this price tag we would be prefer to pay for a dominator. Based on what I’ve seen I don’t think he does that on Sunday but I want exposure to him in a couple of my builds, not many though.

Denny Hamlin ($10,000 DK; $13,000 FD) – Hamlin is perhaps my favorite dominator or second favorite that’s going a little under the radar. JGR cars have excelled in this package in 2021 and while Hamlin doesn’t have a win, he led a lot of laps earlier this year in this package. He finished in the top three at Phoenix, Richmond, and Martinsville while leading over 200 laps at both Richmond and Martinsville. Since then, he’s gone a bit cold, but this is a nice opportunity for him to bounce back. In 27 races here he has two wins and 11 top five finishes. This is the perfect combination of a driver with a great track history, who has performed well in this package but has struggled on other tracks leading up to this weekend. So I like Hamlin quite a bit. I won’t have as much exposure to him as I will Larson, but he might just be my second-heaviest owned dominator.

Joey Logano ($9,500 DK; $10,800 FD) – Matt and I have noted that of the Penske drivers in this package, we like Logano the most and he comes with PD. A top six finish will help him hit value since DraftKings priced him down a bit. He’s looked great on shorter, flat tracks this year. He was the runner-up at Phoenix after leading 143 laps, he finished sixth at Martinsville, and third at Richmond. Similar to Hamlin he isn’t coming in with momentum, but given that he offers more PD he’ll carry more ownership (plus, he’s cheaper). And dating back to last year he won the first Phoenix race, finished third in the finale while leading 125 laps, and he finished third at Richmond. Basically, without practice and qualifying he’s done very well in this package on this style of track. Hopefully Penske doesn’t whiff on the setup on Sunday.

Brad Keselowski ($9,300 DK; $11,500 FD) – I don’t know why, but whenever I cover the Cup playbook, Keselowski typically does very well. I covered the first Martinsville race in 2019 and Kez went on to lead over 440 laps. Then either in 2019 or 2020 I covered another race (I think it was New Hampshire) and he dominated that one as well. So I’ll be mixing in exposure because he has run well here. I know he’s checked out and moving on to Roush Fenway (Keselowski) Racing next season, but I do subscribe to the theory that he probably wants to go out on a high note. I wouldn’t play him in Cash games but I’ll have him in probably 15% of my GPP builds.

Daniel Suarez ($8,900 DK; $5,700 FD) – I don’t love the price on DraftKings, but credit to Matt for pointing this out, he’s a cheap PD play on FanDuel. He’s hit a run of bad luck, but the starting spot is great and he’s a great paydown option on FD where he’s eligible in both Cash and GPP over there. This is historically an okay track for him. In better equipment with JGR he grabbed a pair of top tens and grabbed a top 20 with SHR two years ago. Last year he was in worse equipment than he is now so there’s certainly a top 20 on the board for him this week, maybe even a top 15.

Aric Almirola ($8,400 DK; $7,500 FD) – I love Almirola this week. I don’t know how the rest of the industry feels about him (I'm pretty sure they'll like him too), but I love him. He excels in this package and he’s done well on shorter flat tracks throughout his career. Since coming over to SHR he’s finished third, seventh, and 11th at New Hampshire. At Phoenix he started P32 and finished 11th, and he finished sixth at Richmond. Dating back to last year he finished 13th and 8th at Phoenix, seventh at New Hampshire, and eighth at Richmond. Given the track history and success in this package I want to be heavier than the field here. But I’ll make note of the fact that he’s not immune to a wreck and that’s the risk we need to understand we’re taking. I’m hoping most of the field looks at his overall performance this year and ignores the package and track data.

Christopher Bell ($7,700 DK; $9,000 FD) – Bell did not have a great Cup series debut here last year. He represented some nice PD and things didn’t go our way. But in three Xfinity series races he won all three in dominating fashion including Saturday’s race where he led 151 of 200 laps. Bell had a top ten finish at Phoenix and a top five run at Richmond earlier in the year. I do think we get lower ownership on him, but the price is cheap enough where most DFS players know he doesn’t need to do much to return value. He’s strictly a GPP play, but one that could be in the optimal lineup.

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,500 DK; $8,000 FD) – Matty D has lost his seat in the 21-car for Wood Brother Racing next season. He recently commented that the new crew chief has helped the team click. He’s coming in with back-to-back top tens so there’s momentum for him and he’s commented that this track might be his best chance at scoring a win ahead of the playoffs. He finished sixth here a year ago and fifth in the 95-car in 2019. He’s on narrative street this week and is worth being mixed into GPP builds.

Ryan Newman ($7,200 DK; $5,500 FD) – I can’t ever get a read on Newman and for what it’s worth I don’t want to play him in my GPP lines on Sunday. Newman Chalk never works out in my favor. I never know his motivation and at his age and given the news regarding Brad Keselowski possibly taking his ride, it’s possible he’s checked out. That’s just my thought, I could be wrong. Historically, this is a great track for him. He’s won here twice and has plenty of top five finishes. But his last win here was a decade ago and as many times while he certainly has moved up here previously, he’s put up some stinkers here before. I haven’t really cared for how he’s looked in this package either. So why would I mention him in the Playbook if I don’t like the guy this week? Well, I do think he’s in play for Cash games because he only needs to move up ten spots and finish 18th for value. Personally, I don’t want to eat Newman chalk in GPP’s but that’s just me. Maybe I’ll change my mind Sunday morning, but he’s fine for Double Up’s and 50/50 contests given the floor.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,100 DK; $6,000 FD) – Stenhouse is a play that’s kind of in the same vein as Daniel Suarez although he’s much cheaper than Suarez on DraftKings, but $300 more than Suarez on FanDuel. Blahaaron said it best in the NASCAR DFS chat on Saturday night, Stenhouse can’t possibly wreck two weeks in a row. While that’s no guarantee, I tend to agree with it. Strangely enough in this package at this style of track, Stenhouse has done pretty well this year. He finished 12th at Phoenix, 15th at Martinsville, and 17th at Richmond. For him to hit value we only need him to finish 18th. He’s definitely flipped the script on the style of track that he’s been good at this year. We obviously love him for GPP’s and there’s a decent chance he makes my Cash lineup.

Ross Chastain ($7,000 DK; $7,000 FD) – This isn’t the kind of track I like for Ross, but he’s cheap enough on both sites where you’ll be happy if he finishes in the top 15. At similar tracks in this package he grabbed top 20’s at Phoenix and Richmond. Plus he’s looking for a job next year so he does need to show up and look competitive. Again, I like him but don’t love him though.

Tyler Reddick ($6,800 DK; $8,500 FD) – I don’t have much interest in Reddick on FanDuel. I’d rather pay $500 more for Bell given the track record, but I do like Reddick for GPP’s on DraftKings as a low-owned finishing position play. Reddick grabbed a top ten here a year ago and he has the momentum of three straight top ten finishes where he started in the top ten as well. That’s similar to the narrative he has this week and he’s only $6,800 on DraftKings. He did not perform well at Richmond and Phoenix earlier this season but we’ve seen him mature a bit this season and again, I’m liking the momentum this week. Don’t go insane with exposure, but he’s GPP eligible in my opinion. I’ll be happy if he just gets another top ten and I pair him with the right dominator(s).

Chase Briscoe ($6,000 DK; $5,800 FD) – It’s a tossup between Briscoe and his teammate, Cole Custer. I’m leaning Briscoe because I like what I’ve seen from him in the 14-car of late. He’s looked more comfortable and as noted plenty in this article, SHR has looked decent in this package. What concerns me with Briscoe is that he hasn’t run here in almost two years since the Xfinity series didn’t race here in 2020. I will have exposure to both Custer and Briscoe and based on the Rankings Matt put out, I think he’s leaning Custer. Who says we have to agree on everything?

DraftKings Core Plays

FanDuel Core Plays