Back in the day it was almost a foregone conclusion that in your fantasy baseball draft’s you would grab a stud pitcher as soon as possible. The best “ace” pitchers could log innings and rack up strikeouts while possessing a low ERA. Even those who weren’t the best were usually at least the ones in position to get the win, provided they started the game. But as we enter the 2018 fantasy baseball season the game has changed. In today’s game, it’s not as necessary to draft a starting pitcher with your first pick as it once was. The availability of great pitching in fantasy baseball is more prevalent than it ever has been before for. For example, over the last 16 years, dating back to 2002, there were a total of 178 instances where a starting pitcher collected at least 200 strikeouts in a season. From 2002-2009 it happened 65 times. That means the remaining 113 occurrences have happened since 2010. It’s no longer the crème de la crème that are capable of reaching this seasonal milestone.
Now strikeouts aren’t the only measure of a starting pitcher’s success. For the longest time wins were a perceived factor towards determining the value of a starting pitcher. However, the new trend is Quality Starts. If a pitcher can get through at least six innings of work while surrendering three earned runs or less they log a quality start. This is a decent indicator for a good starting pitcher on a day-to-day basis. All too often has a pitcher gone eight innings of two-run ball only to have his offense fail to show up to help him get the win.
But wins shouldn’t be the biggest factor when drafting your starting pitcher. Look for the individual numbers the starting pitcher has control of like the previously-mentioned strikeouts, quality starts, WHIP, batted ball ratios, etc. You’ll notice there is more depth of solid starting pitchers in fantasy baseball where you can afford to pass on these aces in the first couple rounds and load up later on.
Know Your League Rules
As with any fantasy sport it’s important to know your league rules. This cannot be stressed enough whether you play fantasy football or fantasy baseball. It’s important to know your format: Do you play head-to-head points? Or does your league play head-to-head categories? Or is it a season-long rotisserie league? This article won’t preach which format is best, but rather knowing the league rules could help you build your draft strategy in regards to starting pitchers.
You need to know which categories to target when drafting starting pitchers. Do you play in a league where innings pitched is a category? Or do you get points for accruing innings? Then maybe an innings eater is a guy to target. Does your league reward for wins? You can find guys in the later rounds that can go through five innings of work but have a strong offense to support them to put them in position for the win. This was exactly why fantasy owners drafted Kyle Hendricks in 2016 in the later rounds and he surprised owners by finishing third in the NL Cy Young voting that year. Sometimes you get lucky like that. But if your league doesn’t reward for wins instead opting for quality starts then maybe you want to avoid the players who don’t have a propensity for going past five innings. Strikeouts are always a premium when drafting a fantasy baseball pitcher and not just cumulative strikeouts either. Some leagues reward for strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) and/or strikeout to walk ratio (K:BB). You can find high upside strikeout pitchers in the mid-to-late rounds. Luis Severino, Robbie Ray, Jimmy Nelson, and Jeff Samardzija are all names that were drafted outside the top-100 players in 2017 that finished with roughly 200 strikeouts.
If you play in a league that has a limit on the number of starting pitchers you can roster, say seven total for example, it may not be a terrible idea to grab a top arm or two. But remember this, if you have this limitation in a ten-team league you’ll know that there will be roughly 70 starting pitchers off the waiver market each day. If you play in a 12-team league then 84 pitchers will be off the market. But that leaves plenty of talented arms on waivers. So while you may find yourself with a great core of starters there will be talent on waivers. Whether there are players in great matchups, guys that underperformed and were dropped but could bounce back, or rookie arms getting the call up there is always pitching to be found on waivers even if you just need a streamer.
When to Actually Start Drafting Starting Pitchers
If you’re willing to sit and wait a bit on starting pitching, the best thing you can do for your team is to draft offensive players to fill out the positional spots on your team. I prefer feeling comfortable and secure with the bats I draft. It can be harder to find offensive depth deeper in the draft and on waivers than it is to find starting pitching. Can offensive players be found on waivers? Absolutely, just look at what Trea Turner did in the second half of the 2016 season. But you can easily wait on starting pitching until after the first 50-60 picks have been made so you can load up on offense. Will you miss out on Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, and Zack Greinke? Of course, but that’s the price you pay to get security on offense where the depth isn’t as great as it is at pitching.
Take a look at a position such as second base. Jose Altuve easily sits atop the list of second basemen. Jose Ramirez and Brian Dozier are also solid locks and are top-five second basemen. But as you descend the rankings and pass by names like Dee Gordon, DJ LeMahieu, and Robinson Cano you’ll gradually become less and less confident in the names you find. Yes you’ll draft guys you can plug and play in your lineup, but the offensive positions certainly don’t have the depth that starting pitching does. By waiting on starting pitching you open yourself up to locking in players that are capable of finishing as a top five or top ten player at their respective positions.
By Round 6 or 7, you want to take your first starting pitcher and in mock drafts the options vary. In some mock drafts that have been run names like Chris Archer and Carlos Martinez have been available in the sixth and seventh rounds. In other mock drafts James Paxton was the best available option at the end of round five and it was almost an obligation to draft him at that point. But through the rest of the draft you’ll be able to find guys you like later on. It’s only January, but after round ten players like Luke Weaver, Danny Salazar, Jon Gray, Rich Hill, Cole Hamels, and many others are available to be picked up. Of your first ten picks two should be starting pitchers, maybe three if there’s an incredible value that falls to you.
By waiting on pitching you won’t get a top-10 pitcher. If you draft well enough and the rest of the league doesn’t hoard pitchers it’s nice if you can get a pitcher ranked somewhere between 15th and 20th. Even if that doesn’t happen you want at least two top 40 pitchers and from there you can draft guys with upside and late round flyers. Not all will pan out. But if you get a couple of those late round guys to give you some value then you’ve done well and you can fill in the other holes with your rotation as the season progresses. You should also have enough offensive potential to lure a few trades out of other managers in your league.
SP/RP Qualifying Players
Occasionally in fantasy baseball there are starting pitchers that have relief pitcher eligibility. These are the SP/RP pitchers. You can pronounce it at “Sparp” if you want. These guys help you get around the rule of having a limit to how many starting pitchers you have. A few years ago Tanner Roark was the perfect SP/RP eligible pitcher. As time has gone on he’s become a solid rotation guy for the Nationals and he rarely makes an appearance out of the bullpen. For that though he no longer qualifies. Last season if you had Luis Severino, Patrick Corbin, Zack Godley, Alex Wood, Brad Peacock, and Danny Duffy as your core group of pitchers you might have had a pretty successful season. And each of those guys carried the SP/RP designation. In leagues with starting pitching restrictions it’s smart to draft these SP/RP guys in the later rounds with relief pitcher eligibility so you can bend the rules in your favor. Even in leagues where there aren’t said restrictions you can still utilize these players as starters and leave them in your “RP” slot if you can’t fit them in a starters slot.
Injury Bug
Every professional athlete is at risk of injury. But when it comes to baseball, pitchers are more prone to injury than positional players. This is yet another reason to sit and wait on starting pitching. Yes, even the pitchers you draft later are at the same risk, but at least if you’re 13th round draft pick gets hurt it won’t kill you as much it did for Clayton Kershaw owners when he missed all of last August. Or for the owners who bought into Madison Bumgarner who missed three months last season. To be fair to MadBum’s injury could’ve happened to anybody, but even a sore shoulder or a blister on a finger can make even the most elite pitchers miss a start. Not to mention Tommy John surgery, which has become more popular in recent years. It’s hardly an issue of if a young player needs the surgery, but rather a question of when will a prospect opt for the procedure that will shut him down for a year?
Mock Draft Army
And here’s a quick plug if you all don’t mind. Drafts only get you so far especially in fantasy baseball. A lot of guys duck out of the draft room way too early after drafting five players and you’re left drafting mostly against computers. You don’t get a good feel for when players are really going or when you may need to reach to get a player you really like. So get in on the Mock Draft Army (mockdraftarmy@yahoo.com). They haven’t started yet, but now is a good time to jump on board and sign up. It’s a real mock draft with real players that stay for the entire draft. You’ll be able to pick the brains of other players who are usually pretty helpful in answering questions. So join the Mock Draft Army so we can help you dominate your draft.