THE SLATE

(w/ Implied Team Totals & Odds via KenPom)

  • 7 pm ET -- Florida (76) at Alabama (77) -- 153 total

  • 7 pm ET -- NC State (65) at Clemson (70) -- 135 total

  • 8 pm ET -- North Carolina (71) at Miami FL (69) -- 140 total

  • 9 pm ET -- Rutgers (76) at Michigan State (75) -- 151 total

  • 9 pm ET -- Connecticut (69) at Marquette (70) -- 139 total

  • 9 pm ET -- Missouri (68) at Mississippi State (66) -- 134 total **DK ONLY**

  • 10 pm ET -- Kansas (71) at TCU (67) -- 138 total

 

Top Guards
PlayerTeamOpp.DK $DK FPPGFD $FD FPPG
James BouknightCONNMARQ920036.35800033.58
Although UConn has only played five games thus far with numerous cancellations, the team’s one sure thing has been James Bouknight being a DFS stud every time out. The sophomore has emerged as one of the top playmakers in the whole country as the Huskies’ clear #1 offensive option in a high-usage role. He exploded for 40 points scored on a whopping 24 shot attempts vs. Creighton to open Big East play - and then followed up with 34 DK points and 20 points scored vs. DePaul last time out. Bouknight is the focal point for UConn’s offense and he could be even better with Tyrese Martin emerging as a legit secondary option. Although this matchup vs. Marquette should be slower-paced, we can expect Bouknight to be a DFS stud and top cash or GPP play on this slate with arguably the highest floor-ceiling combo of anyone in action.
Ron Harper Jr.RUMSU850038.38810035.46
After missing a game last week with an ankle injury, Harper returned on Saturday vs. Iowa and got right back to being a DFS stud. In 33 minutes, Rutgers’ best player put up 30 DK points despite shooting just 33% from the field. It’s possible the bum ankle forced a poor shooting performance, but it’s encouraging to see Harper log a full starter’s workload in his first game back. In this fast-paced, high-scoring affair vs. Michigan State, we could easily see Harper return to his 35-45 DK point upside as a DFS stat-stuffer - and he’d be an easy cash game lock. The Scarlet Knights have so much talent emerging that it might hurt Harper’s true ceiling, though, so he may make for a better GPP option.
Scottie LewisUFALA790030.58760028.45
First of all, this Florida-Alabama matchup is one to target overall tonight with the highest total on the slate and two fast-paced teams facing off. On the Gators’ side of things, it’s Scottie Lewis who’s the stud play with stat-stuffing DFS production and a bigger offensive role now with Keyontae Johnson out for the year. Lewis has put up 35 and 30 DK points in the last two games with Johnson out as he’s producing in all stat categories while taking on a bigger playmaking role. Both he and Tre Mann should benefit a ton from this quick-tempo matchup vs. Bama’s guard-heavy lineup - and Lewis will need to be at his best if Florida wants to continue its SEC winning streak.
John Petty Jr.ALAUF750026.58670024.88
Again, this Bama-Florida matchup is one to focus on tonight with tons of points and DFS value expected from both teams. The Tide spread their own production around pretty evenly - which unfortunately puts all of the top options in the boom-or-bust GPP category. Jahvon Quinerly, Jaden Shackelford and Herbert Jones are all in play, but John Petty might be the best among them with a slightly higher ceiling and safer floor. The senior was recently in the doghouse - missing a game and coming off the bench for another - but he returned to the starting lineup on Saturday and bounced back for 17 points scored and 32 DK points. He hasn’t shown that stud upside much this season, but that’s the type of production we expected from him all last year. He could easily have a similar performance in this fast-paced, high-scoring matchup.
Tyrese MartinCONNMARQ620025.69610023.98
Following his recent breakout, Martin is still too cheap on both sites and presents a very nice bargain with big GPP upside. The Rhode Island transfer has emerged as UConn’s second-best player behind James Bouknight after his 41 DK points and 20-point double-double last time out vs. DePaul. He’s now started the last three games on the wing with the Huskies getting inconsistent play from other bigs - and he’s snagged 10 rebounds in three of his four games so far. Martin is a great tournament play on this slate, although the rebounds may be tougher to come by against Marquette’s tougher frontcourt.
        
Value Guards
PlayerTeamOpp.DK $DK FPPGFD $FD FPPG
Earl TimberlakeMIAUNC520020.92490018.46
After missing the first five games of the year with an ankle injury, Timberlake has played a sizable role since returning and carved out legit playing time in Miami’s short rotation. The freshman has logged at least 25 minutes in his three games back and put up 15-25 DK points across those outings. In the now-consistent playing time, Timberlake is involved enough on both ends of the court to provide a solid DFS floor for cash games - in a thin rotation as well. In turn, his recent emergence has now hurt Anthony Walker’s value as Timberlake is getting the bulk of those minutes.
A.J. HoggardMSURU46009.8141009.21
After going 0-3 to begin Big Ten play, Michigan State made a change to the starting lineup last time out and it resulted in a win. That change was AJ Hoggard getting the start over Rocket Watts - and we may see the same thing tonight. The freshman Hoggard played a season-high 24 minutes as the new starting point guard - and he put up 19 DK points with solid all-around stat production in his increased role. Considering how much better the Spartans played with the lineup change, it’s reasonable to expect Hoggard to start again tonight - and it would make him a great cash game or GPP value on this slate. This matchup vs. Rutgers is one of two games with a 150-point total or higher, featuring two faster-paced squads who like to push the offensive pace.
Mark SmithMIZZMSU460019  
A DK-only play here and one with tons of GPP upside at an affordable price point. Mark Smith is Missouri’s best three-point shooter by a wide margin, going 42% from deep in 38 attempts so far. That bodes well against a Mississippi State defense that doesn’t defend the perimeter well and allows the 13th-most points in the country from three-point range. When Smith is making his shots, he has legit 25-30 DK point upside - which would make him a massive bargain on this slate.
Kerwin WaltonUNCMIA39009.344008.24
North Carolina has recently shuffled its lineup around and it has resulted in Kerwin Walton playing a lot more than originally expected. The freshman has now started back-to-back games with 20+ minutes in both - despite not eclipsing 14 minutes in any previous outing. Walton has put up 20 DK points in both those two starts against ACC competition - while going 7-for-12 from three-point range. That sharpshooting from deep should make him productive once again against a Miami defense that allows the 7th-most three-point scoring in the country. His uptick in playing time in UNC’s backcourt has hurt Caleb Love’s DFS value - and it makes Walton a huge value if he gets another start tonight.
Dajuan HarrisKUTCU39007.4530006.34
A key injury situation to monitor tonight focuses on Marcus Garrett in Kansas’ backcourt. The Jayhawks’ point guard will be a game-time decision as he deals with a head injury. If he’s out, then expect Dajuan Harris to step into a ton of minutes and possibly start at PG with Bryce Thompson also out. The freshman Harris has not played a big role this season as a backup guard, but he has logged 20+ minutes multiple times already. Coach Bill Self said yesterday that Harris would possibly 40 minutes if Garrett is out - and that would obviously make him a massive value and likely chalky at such a cheap price tag on both sites. Even if Garrett plays, expect 20-25 minutes from Harris either way with Thompson out.

Other Guards to Consider

  • RJ Nembhard - TCU ($8,100 DK / $7,500 FD)

  • Tre Mann - Florida ($7,600 DK / $7,200 FD)

  • Ochai Agbaji - Kansas ($7,000 DK / $6,700 FD)

  • Geo Baker - Rutgers ($6,900 DK / $6,000 FD)

  • Jaden Shackelford - Alabama ($6,300 DK / $6,200 FD)

  • Leaky Black - North Carolina ($5,300 DK / $6,100 FD)

  • Elijah Olaniyi - Miami FL ($4,400 DK / $4,700 FD)

  • Joshua Primo - Alabama ($4,200 DK / $4,200 FD)

 

Top Forwards
PlayerTeamOpp.DK $DK FPPGFD $FD FPPG
Aamir SimmsCLEMNCST730026.47650024.24
The expensive end of forward tonight is admittedly tough to navigate. The strength of this slate is definitely in the high-priced guards, but Aamir Simms is probably the best cash game play in the top-tier of this position. The Clemson big man is almost a lock for 25-30 DK points with his high-usage role and rebounding ability - and he could feast in a favorable matchup. NC State is not a good rebounding team, allows a ton of opposing points in the paint, and may be without center Manny Bates tonight. It all sets up for Simms to have a similar DFS performance like Saturday’s when he dropped 25 points scored and 48 DK points against another poor frontcourt. The shot volume isn’t as consistent as we’d like, but Clemson should run their offense through Simms tonight like they did vs. Miami last time out.
Jalen WilsonKUTCU720028.4660026.60
With Kansas point guard Marcus Garrett possibly out, expect Jalen Wilson to step into a much larger offensive role tonight. The freshman wing/power forward has emerged as a surprise playmaker for the Jayhawks this year with the potential to go off for 20+ real points and/or double-digit rebounds in any given game. Wilson has posted 33 DK points in back-to-back outings vs. West Virginia and Texas - two tough matchups - and he’s the go-to scorer for Kansas more often than not with the ability to score in the paint and from the perimeter. He’s too cheap on both sites for what his DFS upside is - and would be a great cash play if Garrett is indeed out.
Myles JohnsonRUMSU690026.33660024.79
With Ron Harper back in the mix, it’s tough to trust many of Rutgers’ starters for cash games with elevated price tags and more spread out production. In this uptempo and high-scoring game, though, all of them are in play for GPP’s. One of the top names to look at is Myles Johnson, who has legit 30-40 DK point upside as a double-double threat down low for the Scarlet Knights. The junior center has moved into the starting lineup for the last three games with Cliff Omoruyi still out - and that role increase has subsequently raised his DFS ceiling with more playing time and offensive role if he can stay out of foul trouble. He did just that last time out vs. Iowa when he put up 33 DK points and a double-double against Luka Garza. If Omoruyi is out again, Johnson could easily post similar numbers tonight.
Day'Ron SharpeUNCMIA620024.65670023.18
In an odd turn of events, North Carolina has moved Preseason ACC Player of the Year Garrison Brooks to the bench in the last two games - with Day’Ron Sharpe entering the starting lineup. Although Brooks is still seeing solid playing time as a reserve, this is big for Sharpe’s DFS value in an elevated offensive role. Against Notre Dame on Saturday, the freshman scored 25 points and put up 39 DK points with one rebound short of a double-double - in a season-high 29 minutes. In the two starts, Sharpe’s usage rate has been high and his shot volume has subsequently risen as well. His still-cheap price tag makes him an ideal GPP target on this slate if he gets the start again.
Value Forwards
PlayerTeamOpp.DK $DK FPPGFD $FD FPPG
Colin CastletonUFALA580021.54600020.97
Although his price is starting to rise, Castleton is still too cheap for what his new role is for Florida. The 6-foot-11 big man has seen a massive increase in offensive in the paint with Keyontae Johnson out - and that should continue with Johnson out for the season. Castleton has scored 20+ real points and 30+ DK points in the two games without Johnson as his usage rate and shot volume have both risen dramatically. Both those performances came against SEC competition and resulted in two Florida victories - so don’t expect Castelton’s role to change much moving forward. This matchup vs. Alabama is a fast-paced one with tons of DFS production up for grabs. Castleton makes for a strong GPP play at affordable salaries on both sites.
D.J. FunderburkNCSTCLEM540017.44430016.50
A key injury situation to monitor tonight centers on Manny Bates being a game-time decision with a knee injury. The NC State starting center suffered the injury last Wednesday and has been practicing in limited fashion - but the coach says he’s been pretty sore and there’s a decent chance he sits tonight. If Bates is out, then Funderburk should move back into the starting lineup. Funderburk started the first couple games before he missed three outings with an undisclosed injury. In his first game back, though, the senior big man logged 30 minutes and put up 30 DK points off the bench in a legit role after Bates went down. He’s too cheap on both sites - especially on FD - and would be a great cash play if he starts and Bates is out.
Anthony DurujiUFALA490012.25500011.40
With Keyontae Johnson out for the season, Duruji has started the last two games for Florida and his DFS value has subsequently risen a ton. In those two starts, he put up 27 and 26 DK points in 27 and 34 minutes, respectively, against SEC competition. The increase in playing time and more opportunity for stats across the board have obviously made him a lot more attractive from a DFS standpoint. When Johnson went down, we didn’t know how Florida’s lineup or rotations would shake out - but it’s clear that Duruji will be in line for major starter minutes without much frontcourt depth behind him at power forward. He's way too cheap on both sites and should be popular in cash.
Jalen JohnsonMSUMIZZ510014.05  
After playing a reserve role in the early portion of this season, Johnson has become a much better DFS play now that he’s starting. The senior has started the last four games with a significant uptick in minutes and offensive role. He’s scored in double figures in all four starts while going 11-for-24 from three-point range (46%) during that span. Johnson’s emergence has basically made former starter Cameron Matthews a non-factor - and it’s allowed Johnson to be a solid value play for GPP or cash lineups with more consistent production and playing time. He's still too cheap for his increase in offensive role for Mississippi State.
Jonathan BaehreCLEMNCST440015.47420014.60
Baehre came off the bench in the beginning of the year, but he’s now started five of the last six games with all five starts coming against Clemson’s tougher competition. The senior’s starting role and subsequent uptick in playing time has coincided with Hunter Tyson being sidelined indefinitely. As long as Tyson remins out, we should see Baehre continue to start and play a consistent 25 minutes - keeping his DFS floor pretty safe for 15-20 DK points. At 6-foot-10, Baehre’s taller frame has allowed stud big man Aamir Simms to be more effective as well on the offensive end. Although Baehre himself doesn’t have a big offensive role, his rebounding and defensive stats should make him a solid cash play against an injured and poor rebounding NC State frontcourt.

Other Forwards to Consider

  • Kevin Samuel - TCU ($8,000 DK / $7,100 FD)

  • Aaron Henry - Michigan State ($7,500 DK / $6,900 FD)

  • Garrison Brooks - North Carolina ($6,600 DK / $6,300 FD)

  • Matt Cross - Miami FL ($5,500 DK / $4,800 FD)

  • Josh Carlton - Connecticut ($4,700 DK / $4,300 FD)

  • Justin Lewis - Marquette ($4,600 DK / $5,300 FD)

Example Lineups

The Example Lineups are meant to show strategies and methods toward building lineups based on the players recommended in the Playbook. They are not meant to be plugged and played.

 

DK Cash FD Cash
Pos.PlayerTeamOppFPPGSalary Pos.PlayerTeamOppFPPGSalary
GRon Harper Jr.RUMSU38.38$8,500 GJames BouknightCONNMARQ33.57$8,000
PivotJames BouknightCONNMARQ36.35$9,200$9,200Pivot     
GScottie LewisUFALA30.58$7,900 GScottie LewisUFALA28.44$7,600
Pivot     $7,900Pivot     
GKerwin WaltonUNCMIA9.3$3,900 GRon Harper Jr.RUTMSU35.46$8,100
Pivot     $3,900Pivot     
FAnthony DurujiUFALA12.25$4,900 GKerwin WaltonUNCMIA8.24$4,400
Pivot     $4,900PivotA.J. HoggardMSURUT9.21$4,100
FJalen WilsonKUTCU28.4$7,200 FJalen WilsonKUTCU26.59$6,600
Pivot     $7,200PivotAamir SimmsCLEMNCST24.24$6,500
FAamir SimmsCLEMNCST26.47$7,300 FAnthony DurujiUFALA11.4$5,000
PivotJonathan BaehreCLEMNCST15.47$4,400$4,400Pivot     
UtilA.J. HoggardMSURU9.81$4,600 FJonathan BaehreCLEMNCST14.59$4,200
Pivot     $4,600PivotD.J. FunderburkNCSTCLEM16.5$4,300
UtilD.J. FunderburkNCSTCLEM17.44$5,400 UtilTyrese MartinCONNMARQ23.97$6,100
PivotJohn Petty Jr.ALAUF26.58$7,500$7,500Pivot     
    Total$49,700     Total$50,000
   Pivot Total$49,600    Pivot Total$49,700
             
DK GPP FD GPP
Pos.PlayerTeamOppFPPGSalary Pos.PlayerTeamOppFPPGSalary
GRJ NembhardTCUKU32.86$8,100 GJohn Petty Jr.ALAUF24.87$6,700
PivotJames BouknightCONNMARQ36.35$9,200$9,200Pivot     
GDajuan HarrisKUTCU7.45$3,900 GDajuan HarrisKUTCU6.34$3,000
Pivot     $3,900Pivot     
GMark SmithMIZZMSU19$4,600 GRJ NembhardTCUKU30.08$7,500
Pivot     $4,600Pivot     
FMyles JohnsonRUMSU26.33$6,900 GRon Harper Jr.RUTMSU35.46$8,100
Pivot     $6,900PivotTre MannUFALA27.1$7,200
FDay'Ron SharpeUNCMIA24.65$6,200 FDay'Ron SharpeUNCMIA23.18$6,700
Pivot     $6,200Pivot     
FColin CastletonUFALA21.54$5,800 FMyles JohnsonRUTMSU24.78$6,600
Pivot     $5,800Pivot     
UtilGeo BakerRUMSU22.92$6,900 FColin CastletonUFALA20.96$6,000
PivotTyrese MartinCONNMARQ25.69$6,200$6,200Pivot     
UtilTre MannUFALA29.79$7,600 UtilEarl TimberlakeMIAUNC18.46$4,900
PivotOchai AgbajiKUTCU27.72$7,000$7,000PivotJaden ShackelfordALAUF22.01$6,200
    Total$50,000     Total$49,500
   Pivot Total$49,800    Pivot Total$49,900