Highest Scoring Teams:
(by Implied Points & Spreads per KenPom)
Auburn -- 81 Points (-6 vs. Alabama)
Oklahoma -- 77 Points (-6 vs. Iowa State)
Villanova -- 76 Points (-3 vs. Marquette)
Alabama -- 75 Points (+6 vs. Auburn)
Marquette -- 73 Points (+3 vs. Villanova)
Michigan -- 72 Points (-5 vs. Northwestern)
Louisville -- 71 Points (-6 vs. Georgia Tech)
Iowa State -- 71 Points (+6 vs. Oklahoma
St. John’s -- 71 Points (-3 vs. Providence) **FD ONLY**
SMU -- 70 Points (-3 vs. Connecticut)
Top Guards
Markus Howard - Marquette ($9,400 DK / $8,500 FD)
One of the big decisions to be made on tonight’s DFS CBB slate will be whether or not you pay up for Markus Howard at his expensive price tag on either site. The case for locking in Marquette’s senior point guard is an easy one. Howard leads all of college basketball in scoring (27.4 PPG), his 42% shot volume and 38% usage rate in Marquette’s offense are first and second in the country, respectively, and he has the potential to put up 50 DFS points in any given game. Plus, Howard has proven success against Villanova in the past - with his 29 real points and 45 DK points against ‘Nova earlier this season while averaging 30.7 PPG over the last three meetings dating back to last year. We’ll never tell you NOT to play Howard with these numbers. However, it might be smart to fade his expensive price tags in tournaments because there’s the off-chance he doesn’t return value - just as he’s done in two of the last three games when he put up 29 and 27 DK points at a similar salary point. If he’s doing that, it wasn’t worth it in GPP’s because you’re already behind those that faded him. In cash, though, you could easily finish on the outside looking in if you choose not to play Howard.
Rasir Bolton - Iowa State ($7,500 DK / $5,600 FD)
The Cyclones received some terrible news earlier this week when stud point guard Tyrese Haliburton announced he would miss the rest of the season due to a fractured wrist. On the bright side, though, this injury should benefit a few different Iowa State players for DFS purposes and it all starts with Rasir Bolton. During conference play, the sophomore was already leading the team in offensive usage rate (28%) and shots share (27%) - and now Bolton is expected to take over the lead point guard duties starting tonight. He’ll have the ball in his hands a ton on offense and this high usage should keep his DFS floor pretty high, whether he’s assisting or scoring on his own. The former Penn State transfer had put up at least 28 DK points in five of the last nine games - and those performances came with Haliburton still in the lineup. Now Bolton will have more opportunities to rack up assists to go along with his already-high scoring role in the Iowa State offense. His price tag on DK is fair, but he’s a massive value on FD tonight.
James Bouknight - Connecticut ($6,200 DK / $5,300 FD)
We’ve recently seen a change in UConn’s rotation and it’s resulted in a much larger offensive role for James Bouknight. After coming off the bench to begin the season, the freshman has now started the past eight games and he now leads the team in offensive usage rate (27%) and shots share (30%) during conference play. The Huskies’ offense has shifted to focus more on Bouknight’s ball-handling and scoring abilities and this gives him a higher DFS floor than in the past. He’s now scored 22 and 23 points in the past two games, respectively, while providing 33 DK points in both. Bouknight played a key role in Connecticut’s upset win over Cincinnati on Sunday as he took a season-high 21 shot attempts with the ball was in his hands on nearly every possession in the final stretch of the second half and overtime. Assuming this trend of increased usage and role continues tonight, Bouknight is one of the safer cash guards on this slate - especially on FD with the price differential.
Prentiss Nixon & Terrence Lewis - Iowa State
As mentioned above, the Iowa State offense will have to make due without its starting point guard tonight as Tyrese Haliburton is now out for the season. In his absence, we could see either Prentiss Nixon or Terrence Lewis enter the starting rotation and either would be a huge value with the extended playing time and offensive role. Nixon ($4,800 DK / $4,800 FD) previously started the first 20 games of this season but he’s been relegated to the bench over the last three outings. After Haliburton left Saturday’s game early, Nixon saw an uptick in playing time in the second half and finished with 26 DK points in 27 minutes. We could see Nixon re-enter the starting lineup tonight, and he would be a safe cash play if that indeed happens. Meanwhile, Lewis ($4,200 DK / $4,000 FD) will also see an increase in playing time tonight with Haliburton - and there’s a possibility he’s named a starter over Nixon. The junior actually started the one game Haliburton missed earlier this season and he put up 21 DK points in a career-high 36 minutes. Plus, Lewis finished with 20 DK points (with 12 points scored) in 20 minutes on Saturday after Haliburton left the game. Even if he doesn’t start, Lewis will have a role in the Iowa State rotation tonight and he’s worth a flier in GPP’s with the potential to 4x or 5x his salaries.
Greg Williams - St. John’s ($4,100 FD Only)
If you’re playing on FanDuel tonight, one value play specific to that site is a guy who will benefit from an injury to the St. John’s backcourt. Senior guard Mustapha Heron is expected to miss the rest of the season due to an ankle injury and Greg Williams will now see an increase in playing time in his teammate’s absence. Williams actually started the past two games with Heron coming off the bench - and he put up 14.6 and 11.3 FD points in 33 and 27 minutes, respectively, in those outings. With Heron now out, though, Williams will get even more minutes and a larger offensive role in the Red Storm’s guard-heavy lineups - and this makes him a big value at this FD price tag. We should expect 4x return or better from the sophomore as Heron’s absence will open up more usage and shots share in the St. John’s offense.
Devan Cambridge - Auburn ($3,900 DK / $4,000 FD)
One of the key injury situations to monitor tonight involves a fluctuating Auburn rotation that could result in Devan Cambridge being an elite value once again. Danjel Purifoy sat out Saturday’s game with the flu and he’s a game-time decision tonight after failing to practice this week. There’s a slight chance Purifoy ends up playing, but if he sits out again then Cambridge should be strongly considered as a salary-saver in GPP contests. With Purifoy out over the weekend, Cambridge stepped up to score 21 real points on seven made three-pointers and his 28 DK points was a massive DFS return. Although the freshman has seen minimal playing time off the bench this year, he did have another game similar to this one. In mid-January, Cambridge exploded for 26 real points while going 6-for-9 from three-point range. Purifoy is one of Auburn’s best three-point makers and when he’s out, the Tigers will need Cambridge to play that role in the offense once again tonight. Thankfully this game is at 7 pm ET, so we’ll know early on if Purifoy is playing or not.
Other Guards to Consider:
Kira Lewis - Alabama ($8,300 DK / $7,600 FD)
Zavier Simpson - Michigan ($8,000 DK / $6,900 FD)
Collin Gillespie - Villanova ($7,600 DK / $6,800 FD)
Samir Doughty - Auburn ($6,800 DK / $6,600 FD)
LJ Figueroa - St. John’s ($6,600 FD Only)
Duane Washington - Ohio State ($5,200 DK / $4,300 FD)
Top Forwards
Jordan Nwora - Louisville ($8,100 DK / $7,400 FD)
Admittedly, it’s been tough to pay up for Jordan Nwora lately because he was giving us only 20-30 DK points per game at a high salary just a few weeks ago on a balanced Louisville team. Lately, though, the Preseason ACC Player of the Year is playing like everyone expected him to when the season began. Over the last four games, Nwora is averaging 23.5 real points, eight rebounds and 37.6 DK points while going 16-for-34 from three-point range (47%). The junior power forward has seemingly broken out of his scoring slump and he’s returned to being the #1 offensive option for the Cardinals. Nwora put up just 22 DK points in his previous meeting vs. Georgia Tech - but we can essentially throw that performance out because he’s a totally different player now with a huge increase in shooting efficiency. Of course tonight may be the unfortunate time where he regresses again, but Nwora should be a very safe cash play at these salaries if he’s providing 35+ DK points once again.
Saddiq Bey - Villanova ($7,400 DK / $6,400 FD)
Villanova seems to take turns when it comes to which of their wings takes the lead scoring role on offense - and right now it’s Saddiq Bey who’s become a main focus. In three of the last four games, the sophomore has scored 22+ points in each outing while averaging 34.7 DK points and going 14-for-23 from three-point range (61%). During Big East play, Bey is second on the team in usage rate (22%) and shots share (24%) and he’s starting to now take the majority of shot attempts in the ‘Nova attack. Plus, he usually provides enough ancillary stats in rebounds, assists, blocks and steals to return value. When Bey faced Marquette over a month ago, he “only” had 20 DK points - but that was before he saw an increase in shots and scoring opportunities in the offense. We can reasonably expect 30 or more DFS points from him when he’s hitting his shots - just as he’s done in three of the last four - and that makes him a good cash game forward on this slate.
Austin Wiley - Auburn ($6,000 DK / $5,700 FD)
Auburn’s center is the epitome of a GPP play in DFS CBB this season and we could see another big outing tonight with a favorable matchup and game script. Austin Wiley has so much raw talent that he can easily put up 30 DK points if he’s asserting his will as both a post-scorer and rebounder in the paint. He’s coming off a game where he did just that against LSU on Saturday when he had a double-double and 32 DK points. Over the last ten games, he’s had similar performances against Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Alabama - tonight’s opponent. In that previous matchup vs. ‘Bama, the 6-foot-11 senior finished with 10 points, 13 rebounds, two blocks and 30 DK points. He feasted on the smaller Crimson Tide frontcourt in that mid-January game and he could definitely replicate those numbers tonight. However, there’s always the chance he gets into foul trouble or becomes a victim of Auburn’s deep rotation and fails to return value because of his limited court time. He did that two games ago against Arkansas and in a number of SEC matchups this season. It’s boom-or-bust with Wiley but this a buy low opportunity right now before his salary likely creeps into the high 6k or 7k range like it was earlier this year.
Isaiah Livers - Michigan ($5,300 DK / $5,000 FD)
After missing nine games recently due to a groin injury, Isaiah Livers is once again on our DFS radars following his successful return to action on Saturday. The junior wing re-entered Michigan’s starting rotation over the weekend and finished with 27 DK points in 31 minutes while playing a key role in the win over rival Michigan State. There was a worry that Livers would re-injure his groin like he did last month when he tried to come back too soon. No news is good news, though, as it seems Livers will be good to go tonight with no reports of a setback. On Saturday, it was encouraging to see him have a comfortable offensive role right away as he scored 14 points on 10 shot attempts - plus he added defensive value with his two blocks, a steal and four rebounds. As long as he stays healthy, Livers will continue to be a key piece of the Wolverines’ offense and he’s a value for us right now because his salaries will likely rise into the 6k range as he puts together a few solid DFS performances in a row.
Javian Davis - Alabama ($4,300 DK / $4,500 FD)
With Herbert Jones still out for Alabama, we can continue to roll with Javian Davis as a solid value play in an up-tempo matchup with Auburn tonight. Davis has now started the last three games with Jones out and he’s put up 21, 15 and 24 DK points in these three outings. The freshman big man isn’t the most skilled rebounder or scorer, but the increase in minutes has allowed him to return just enough value at cheap price tags lately. When these teams met earlier this year, we saw Herbert Jones grab 12 rebounds in a fast-paced game with tons of shot attempts from both sides. We’re not saying Davis will duplicate that performance, but there’s upside for him to be a good enough rebounder with easy put-backs around the rim to 4x his salary once again.
Trey Jemison - Clemson ($3,900 DK / $3,900 FD)
One of the key “if-then” injury situations tonight could result in Trey Jemison being a huge value for a second straight game. Aamir Simms, Clemson’s best player, sat out Sunday’s game with the flu and Jemison promptly put up 18 DK points in 30 minutes as he stepped into a starting role. Unfortunately there have been no updates yet on Simms’ status tonight and we likely won’t know until after the early games tipoff with Clemson playing at 9 pm ET. If Simms sits again, though, Jemison is a slam-dunk value because of the increase in playing time that will help him rack up enough stats to best his salaries on both sites - just as he did over the weekend. The sophomore has barely played off the bench this season, but we can trust his DFS production in all formats if he’s starting tonight for Simms.
Other Forwards to Consider:
Kaleb Wesson - Ohio State ($8,500 DK / $7,100 FD)
Kristian Doolittle - Oklahoma ($7,900 DK / $6,800 FD)
Keyontae Johnson - Florida ($7,400 DK Only)
Isaac Okoro - Auburn ($6,500 DK / $5,500 FD)
Brendan Bailey - Marquette ($5,800 DK / $5,500 FD)
Solomon Young - Iowa State ($5,000 DK / $5,000 FD)
DraftKings Example Lineup:
G: Markus Howard - MARQ ($9,400)
G: Rasir Bolton - ISU ($7,500)
G: James Bouknight - CONN ($6,200)
F: Saddiq Bey - VU ($7,500)
F: Austin Wiley - AUB ($6,000)
F: Javian Davis - ALA ($4,300)
U: Isaiah Livers - MICH ($5,300)
U: Devan Cambridge - AUB ($3,900)
FanDuel Example Lineup:
G: Markus Howard - MARQ ($8,500)
G: James Bouknight - CONN ($5,300)
G: Rasir Bolton - ISU ($5,600)
G: Greg Williams - SJU ($4,100)
F: Jordan Nwora - LOU ($7,400)
F: Kristian Doolittle - OU ($6,800)
F: Austin Wiley - AUB ($5,700)
U: Samir Doughty - AUB ($6,600)