– Welcome to the Final Four –
Whether you’re a regular or newbie to these CBB Playbooks, we’ll be doing things a bit differently to prepare for Saturday’s Final Four matchups. We will break down each game with their own Playbook and point out the top guards and forwards you should be building lineups around - for both GPP and cash game contests.
Texas Tech
Let’s take a closer look at Texas Tech, the 3-seed from the West Regional with a 30-6 overall record. On their journey to the Final Four, the Red Raiders - led by head coach Chris Beard - have beaten Northern Kentucky, Buffalo, Michigan and Gonzaga in the NCAA Tournament after clinching a share of the Big 12 regular season crown. According to KenPom’s ratings of 353 Division I teams, Texas Tech ranks 28th in offensive efficiency, 1st in defensive efficiency and 229th in tempo.
The Red Raiders have been led by their do-everything point guard/shooting guard Jarrett Culver all season but there a couple other guards and one forward who could play a pivotal role for Tech if they want to advance past Michigan State.
Find out who those players are with the Texas Tech DFS Playbook!
Expected Starters:
G: Jarrett Culver - $8,700 DK / $8,600 FD
G: Matt Mooney - $6,200 DK / $6,000 FD
G: Davide Moretti - $5,200 DK / $5,300 FD
F: Tariq Owens - $6,100 DK / $6,200 FD
F: Norense Odiase - $4,400 DK / $3,900 FD
Key Reserves:
G: Brandone Francis - $4,200 DK / $3,600 FD
G: Kyler Edwards - $4,300 DK / $3,200 FD
F: Deshawn Corprew - $3,800 DK / $3,400 FD
Guards
Jarrett Culver ($8,700 DK / $8,600 FD)
From both a DFS and real-life standpoint, Culver might be the best player remaining in this tournament as the anchor behind Texas Tech. In terms of his fantasy value, Culver has put up at least 35 DK points in each of the four tourney games and he’s averaging a very balanced stat line of 21.5 points scored, 6.8 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 2.3 steals and 1.3 blocks in the Big Dance. Among the four high-priced guards from each team Culver tops the list in all formats because of his floor of around 30-35 DK points with a ceiling of 50 - Cassius Winston, Ty Jerome and Jared Harper are the other three expensive options. We saw Culver’s ceiling-game in the first round (54.5 DK points vs. Northern Kentucky), a pair of solid outings in the middle two rounds (45.5 and 38.5 DK points vs. Buffalo and Michigan, respectively) and then his “floor” performance in last weekend’s win over Gonzaga (35.75 DK points). In terms of reality, Culver is one of the only potential NBA lottery pick remaining in the Final Four and if Texas Tech is to win over Michigan State on Saturday, it’ll have to be on the backs of their best player.
Matt Mooney ($6,200 DK / $6,000 FD)
Culver may be the star for Texas Tech, but Mooney might be the team’s best defender. The senior is averaging three steals per game in the tournament’s first four games and his 2.9% steal rate ranked 4th in the Big 12 this season. Mooney’s smaller size compared to Culver - 6’3” vs. 6’6” - may make him a better on-ball matchup to defend Michigan State’s Cassius Winston. This should lock him into big minutes on Saturday - which is nothing new as he’s logged at least 32 minutes in each round. Limit your exposure to GPP’s, though, because of his volatility in providing DFS points. Mooney is capable of 30+ DK points (like he did twice this tournament, including last weekend vs. Gonzaga), but he can also “only” put up 20 DK points (as he did in the two other outings). This particular matchup vs. the Spartans should be the lower-scoring of the two Final Four games and Culver will likely be dominating the shot volume - which limits Mooney’s upside as a pure scorer.
Davide Moretti ($5,200 DK / $5,300 FD)
Although Michigan State defends the perimeter well, we can’t overlook Moretti’s value as his team’s best three-point shooter. The sophomore’s 53.5% from three-point range led the Big 12 during the regular season and he’s made 5-of-8 from deep (62.5%) in the last two games. Moretti’s role as Texas Tech’s best deep threat keeps his fantasy floor pretty safe because he usually gets open looks with Jarrett Culver dominating the attention of opposing defenses. At this price, Moretti can return 4x value - as he did in both of Tech’s Sweet 16 and Elite Eight wins. Roster with caution, though, because he doesn’t offer much upside in peripheral stats and his DFS value depends on if he’s scoring actual points. Yet, Moretti has scored in double-digits in all four tournament games and averaged 20.8 DK points over that span while putting up at least 18+ DK points in every outing.
Forwards
Tariq Owens ($6,100 DK / $6,200 FD)
Texas Tech boasts the nation’s top-ranked defense largely because of Owens’ rim-protecting ability. The 6’10” senior’s block rate was 2nd in the Big 12 this season (and 11th in the country) - and he’s blocked 10 shots over the first four rounds, including three in the Elite Eight win over Gonzaga. Owens doesn’t offer much upside offensively - he’s averaging just 9.5 points this tourney - but his shot-blocking and rebounding allow him to remain valuable for our DFS lineups. He grabbed 10 boards vs. Michigan in the Sweet 16, and seven each against Gonzaga and Buffalo this tournament. Overall, he’s averaging 24 DK points in the Big Dance and has put up at least 20 DK points each game. Owens’ size and length will be important for Texas Tech to contain Michigan State’s talented trio of forwards in the paint. If he can stay out of foul trouble, we may see a 5x return from him on Saturday as he’ll surely be active on the boards and as a rim-protector.
Michigan State
Let’s take a closer look at Michigan State, the 2-seed from the East Regional with a 32-6 overall record. On their journey to the Final Four, the Spartans - led by head coach Tom Izzo - have beaten Bradley, Minnesota, LSU and Duke in the NCAA Tournament after taking down the Big Ten conference tournament title and clinching a share of the Big Ten regular season crown. According to KenPom’s ratings of 353 Division I teams, Michigan State ranks 5th in offensive efficiency, 9th in defensive efficiency and 201st in tempo.
The Spartans are led by their dynamic point guard Cassius Winston who has anchored the team despite dealing with a slew of injuries this year. Yet, the forwards could play a big role in this Final Four and one in particular should be staple in your lineups this weekend.
Find out who that players is - and more - with the Michigan State DFS Playbook!
Expected Starters:
G: Cassius Winston - $8,800 DK / $8,800 FD
G: Matt McQuaid - $4,800 DK / $4,700 FD
F: Kenny Goins - $7,400 DK / $6,900 FD
F: Xavier Tillman - $6,700 DK / $7,000 FD
F: Aaron Henry - $5,100 DK / $5,000 FD
Key Reserves:
F: Nick Ward - $5,800 DK / $5,600 FD
F: Gabe Brown - $3,000 DK / $3,300 FD
Guards To Target
Cassius Winston ($8,800 DK / $8,800 FD)
Even with a slew of talented guards at the expensive end of the position, it’ll be hard to ignore what Winston has done this tournament as Michigan State’s leader. The junior showed us his fantasy ceiling in last weekend’s win over Duke when he put up 46+ DK points with 20 points scored, 10 assists and four steals. The performance gave Winston tournament averages of 36 DK points, 19 real points, 7.8 assists, two rebounds and 1.5 steals. Although Texas Tech’s top-ranked defense presents a tough matchup on Saturday, we could see another 30-40 DK points because of how much Winston is involved on nearly every single Spartans offensive possession. If he’s not scoring on his own, the MSU point guard has the unique ability to dish it to his teammates in the pick-and-roll - which will come in handy this weekend as Tech usually allows opposing forwards to have their way down low. Winston isn’t as strong a cash game play as Culver or Jerome, but his GPP upside is right up there with anyone on this slate if he has a game like he did in the Elite Eight vs. Duke.
Forwards To Target
Kenny Goins ($7,400 DK / $6,900 FD)
We all remember Goins’ game-winning three-pointer last weekend that ultimately ended Duke’s title hopes. Outside of that clutch trey, the senior didn’t have a great shooting day (4-for-12 from the field, 2-for-8 from deep) but he still racked up nearly 30 DK points because of his role on the boards. Goins grabbed nine rebounds to give him a tournament-average of 9.3 boards per game - which has increased his offensive upside with more put-back opportunities. Unfortunately, the salary increase on both sites limits him to GPP lineups - but he can still return 4x value with how soft the interior of Texas Tech’s defense can be at times. We should see Goins (along with Xavier Tillman and Nick Ward) in a number of pick-and-rolls with Cassius Winston - which will allow him to get easy looks at the basket and increase his upside.
Xavier Tillman ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD)
Like Goins, Tillman should have his way down low against Tech’s below-average interior defense. Outside of shot-blocker Tariq Owens, the Red Raiders don’t have size (in height and weight) to defend Michigan State’s bigs in the paint - especially if they’re getting easy looks in the pick-and-roll with Spartans’ point guard Cassius Winston. Although his salary may not show it, Tillman has been the better DFS player than Goins this tournament. Over the four tourney games, the sophomore is averaging 33.6 DK points, 15.3 actual points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.8 blocks and 1.5 assists. We saw a complete game - and a “ceiling” performance - from Tillman in last weekend’s win over Duke when he put up 41+ DK points with 19 points scored, nine boards, two blocks and three steals. With how susceptible Tech can be to opposing forwards, we could see another 30-40 fantasy points from him again on Saturday in a much favorable matchup than Duke presents. Tillman is a very strong cash game play at this affordable salary on both sites and should be considered in all your lineups in every format.
Aaron Henry ($5,100 DK / $5,000 FD)
We’ve been riding Henry all tournament long as an elite value play and there’s no reason to stop now - despite the price increase and a tough matchup. As the Spartans’ best wing player during this tournament run, the freshman is playing a crucial role for head coach Tom Izzo. We likely won’t get a performance like Henry’s 20-8-6 line and 44 DK points in the Sweet 16 win over LSU, but it’s realistic to expect 15-20 fantasy points as he’s locked into 35+ minutes in Michigan State’s tight rotation. The Spartans have three talented bigs and an elite point guard - so Henry’s role as the 3-and-D winger has been crucial (and underrated) to their success this postseason. Because of his larger, more athletic build than McQuaid, he may be tasked with guarding Texas Tech playmaker Jarrett Culver for much of the game - which should also keep him locked into playing time. Henry doesn’t offer much upside in pure scoring, but his ability to rack up peripherals in every stat category keeps his fantasy floor safe. Henry is a strong cash play again this weekend with the upside to provide 5x value if he gets more shot opportunities - which could happen if Winston is bottled up by Tech’s defense.