Welcome to the final Saturday DFS CBB slate of the regular season! With the conference tournaments just around the corner, we have another weekend filled with meaningful college basketball matchups as bubble teams to lock in those coveted NCAA Tournament at-large berths while the Tennessee’s, Kentucky’s and Marquette’s of the world try to prove they’re worthy of top seeds.
The main slate today tips off at 12 pm ET with eight different Top 25 teams in action. You won’t see the juicy Duke-UNC or Michigan-Michigan State matchups here (those start at 6 and 8 pm ET, respectively) - but we do get a wide range of Tournament-bound teams to dive into deeper with the Big Dance coming up fast. FanDuel and DraftKings both have 12-game slates with two different matchups separating them.
With a specific eye towards recent game trends, favorable and/or tough matchups, rotations and KenPom’s advanced stats, we’ll outline the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS CBB lineups today for both sites. We’ll also point out the games to generally target and fade today based on pace of play, spread and implied point totals as predicted by KenPom.
If you have any questions or comments about CBB DFS strategy or college basketball in general, feel free to hit up my Twitter @dan_servodidio. Good luck!
Games To Target:
Tennessee @ Auburn - 12 pm ET (TENN -1 / 151 Implied Total)
Georgia @ South Carolina - 1 pm ET (SCAR -6 / 148 Implied Total) - FD ONLY
NC State @ Boston College - 2 pm ET (NCST -2 / 150 Implied Total)
Georgetown @ Marquette - 2:30 pm ET (MARQ -11 / 153 Implied Total) - DK ONLY
Games To Fade:
Syracuse @ Clemson - 12 pm ET (CLEM -5 / 127 Implied Total)
Butler @ Providence - 12 pm ET (PROV -2 / 134 Implied Total)
Purdue @ Northwestern - 2:30 pm ET (PUR -7 / 133 Implied Total) - DK ONLY
Guards
Myles Powell - SHU ($9,500 DK / $8,600 FD)
Although Powell had one of the worst games of his career vs. Villanova earlier this season (less than one DK point & negative FD points), he’s been on an offensive tear in the nine games since - averaging 41.7 DK points, including back-to-back performances of at least 34 real points scored and 45 DK points in the past two outings. Powell’s fantasy floor and ceiling remain extremely high not only due to his high usage and shot volume - both of which rank 2nd in the Big East, by the way - but also because he’s the best distributor on the team and boasts a fouls drawn rate and steals rate that are top 5 in the conference as well. The junior has especially stepped up his play lately with Seton Hall making a push towards an at-large NCAA Tournament bid - a near certainty with a victory over ‘Nova today. Obviously Powell’s revent play warrants this expensive price tag - and he should go low-owned on this slate because of his poor last outing vs. Villanova and the fact that there’s a number of other high-priced guards in appealing matchups. For those reasons, Powell could be a nice GPP play with legit upside of 50 fantasy points in what should be a back-and-forth battle at home.
Jarrett Culver - TTU ($8,500 DK / $8,500 FD)
If you’re looking a bit of savings on DraftKings for a higher-priced guard, Culver is your man as he’s the 6th-most expensive at the position but has had a similar DFS floor and ceiling lately. In the past five games, he’s averaging 38.6 DK points and offers solid production in rebounds, assists, steals and blocks to keep his value high despite scoring 20 or more points just once in the last ten outings. When Culver first faced Iowa State back in January, the sophomore put up 45 DK points with 20 real points, 16 rebounds, an assist and two steals. In addition to Culver’s stellar play of late, there’s also bit of narrative for him to perform well today. If Texas Tech win, they clinch at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title and potentially enter the #2-seed conversation for the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Considering Culver has been above 9k at times this season, he’s actually a bargain considering his recent play and upside like he showed in these teams’ first meeting.
Jalen Hudson - UF ($5,100 DK / $5,400 FD)
We suggested Hudson on Wednesday and he came through for us in a big way. Getting the start vs. LSU on Senior Night, Hudson scored 33 real points and for a slate-breaking 39 DK points at his then-sub 5k price tag. His salary has increased a little today, but he can still easily return value because of his big role in Florida’s offense. During SEC play, the senior leads the team in possession usage and his shot volume is 2nd in the conference - including at least 13 shot attempts in each of the last three games with 20 last time out. Although today’s matchup is a tougher one - Kentucky’s guards are solid defenders who look for steals - Hudson has the experience to adjust as the team’s best ball-handler who doesn’t turn the ball over much compared to Florida’s other guards. Before that start vs. LSU, Hudson came off the bench for the majority of conference action but he should still see big minutes with that high usage and shots share whether he comes off the bench or not.
Jase Febres - TEX ($4,800 DK / $5,500 FD)
With Kerwin Roach still suspended, Febres is in line for a fifth straight start as he’s been the biggest beneficiary of his teammate’s absence. In those first three starts in Roach’s place, Febres 21.3 real points and 33.9 DK points while shooting 51.2% from three-point range (20-for-39). People may avoid the sophomore after a dud outing vs. Texas Tech last game - but his shot volume and playing time remained high with 10 total attempts in 40 minutes. Plus, today’s matchup vs. TCU is a much easier one than facing Texas Tech’s top-ranked defense in the nation. Febres’ volume from three-point range is especially encouraging - launching at least 10 shots from deep in the first three starts and still getting five looks from beyond the arc last time out. This high mark keeps his value high today despite facing a TCU team that defends the three-point line well.
Other Guards to Consider:
Ky Bowman - BC ($9,900 DK / $8,800 FD)
Phil Booth - NOVA ($8,100 DK / $8,200 FD)
Markell Johnson - NCST ($6,400 DK / $6,600 FD)
Chaundee Brown - WF ($6,200 DK / $6,300 FD)
Tyson Carter - MSST ($5,700 FD ONLY)
Forwards
Elijah Thomas - CLEM ($8,200 DK / $7,900 FD)
Although Clemson consistently plays in low-scoring games, Thomas’ DFS value remains high with impressive ratings in a variety of advanced metrics - making him a strong cash play at forward today. Thomas is 6th in the ACC in offensive usage and he’s 2nd and 3rd in defensive rebounding and block rate, respectively. He’s also averaging 35.8 DK points over the last four games with per-game marks of 13.5 real points, 9.3 rebounds and 2.3 blocks. Outside of the numbers, though, there’s also a narrative at play here. The senior should be more motivated today in his final collegiate home game with a chance to keep Clemson’s NCAA Tournament hopes alive as a current bubble team. Thomas is a good GPP play as well because he could go low owned with an elevated price tag and the low implied points total in this matchup vs. Syracuse..
Nik Popovic - BC ($6,800 DK / $7,100 FD)
Although his salary doesn’t show it, Popovic may be the best forward play on today’s slate with a very favorable matchup. We’ve been targeting opposing forwards against NC State throughout conference play and we’re going right back to it with Boston College’s best big. The Wolfpack simply don’t have the size or skill in the paint to stop talented forwards, most of which rack up a ton of rebounds as NC State plays at one of the fastest tempos in the ACC. Meanwhile, Popovic is Boston College’s best rebounder and his offensive usage and shots share are both top 10 marks in the conference - and that’s with shot-hog Ky Bowman playing alongside him. The 6’11” junior is also coming off two straight games of at least 20 real points scored with 47 and 32 DK points vs. Georgia Tech and North Carolina, respectively. For his upside today in a plus-matchup, Popovic should probably be priced near 8k on both sites - making him a strong play, especially in cash games.
Mfiondu Kabengele - FSU ($6,500 DK / $6,400 FD) & Christ Koumadje - FSU ($5,200 DK / $5,100 FD)
In another world, we’d combine Kabengele and Koumadje into one beast of a player who would be a DFS stud every slate. For obvious reasons, though, that’s not going to happen and we’re forced to deal with Florida State’s frustrating split playing time between the two talented bigs. Kabengele doesn’t start, but he’s been the Seminoles best player when he’s on the court - with off-the-chart advanced metrics in shot volume (3rd in the conference), offensive usage (7th), fouls drawn (1st) and blocks (6th). The only issue is there’s games where FSU head coach Leonard Hamilton will inexplicably keep him on the bench for long stretches which limits his upside. Despite that, the 6’10” sophomore has posted at least 30 DK points in five of the last ten games, including each of the last two outings. On the other hand, Koumadje starts over Kabengele and has been outstanding on a fantasy points-per-minute lately despite usually seeing more time on the bench than on the floor - because of Kabengele’s dominance. The 7’4” Koumadje has the upside to 5x or 6x his salary on any slate, but we got a good glimpse at this DFS floor last time out vs. Virginia Tech when he played only 7 minutes with zero fantasy points. Again, the playing time is just so unpredictable for both players as each take minutes away from each other and limit the other’s overall upside. Still, there is the option of playing both Kabengele and Koumadje in the same lineup - as you’ll see below - because you can get 50+ combined DFS points between the two in a favorable matchup today. Their opponent, Wake Forest, is extremely prone to getting shots blocked and don’t have much size in the paint to dominant rebounding - both play into Kabengele and Koumadje’s strengths.
Freddie Gillespie - BAY ($4,600 DK / $5,300 FD)
It’s no secret that Kansas is prone to allowing big games from opposing forwards ever since Udoka Azubuike went down for the year early in Big 12 play. Yes, Dedric Lawson is dominant in the paint - but that’s mostly on the offensive end as he takes defensive possessions off at times to avoid foul trouble and conserve energy. In the last two games, Cameron McGriff (Oklahoma State) and Kristian Doolittle (Oklahoma) both had monster games vs. Kansas - and we could see something similar from Gillespie today. The junior, who started seven straight games with King McClure out, moved back to a reserve role last time out but still scored 14 real points and 23+ DK points in 27 minutes off the bench. We’ll probably see McClure start over Gillespie again today, but that doesn’t rule him out from being a value play for us. Baylor could call on Gillespie’s 240-pound, 6’8” frame more often than not because he matches up better with Lawson on both ends and could force the Kansas star into foul trouble with his aggressiveness in the paint.
Other Forwards to Consider:
Dererk Pardon - NW ($7,800 DK ONLY)
Reggie Perry - MSST ($6,300 FD ONLY)
Keyshawn Bryant - SCAR ($5,600 FD ONLY)
Jermaine Samuels - NOVA ($4,400 DK / $5,100 FD)
EJ Montgomery ($4,200 DK / $4,200 FD)
Example Lineup on DraftKings:
G: Myles Powell, SHU - $9,500
G: Jarrett Culver, TTU - $4,800
G: Jalen Hudson, UF - $5,100
F: Nik Popovic, BC - $6,800
F: Mfiondu Kabengele, FSU - $6,500
F: Freddie Gillespie, BAY - $4,600
U: Jase Febres, TEX - $4,800
U: EJ Montgomery, UK - $4,200
Example Lineup on FanDuel:
G: Tyson Carter, MSST - $5,700
G: Jarrett Culver, TTU - $8,500
G: Jalen Hudson, UF - $5,400
G: Chaundee Brown, WF - $6,300
F: Nik Popovic, BC - $7,100
F: Mfiondu Kabengele, FSU - $6,400
F: Christ Koumadje, FSU - $5,100
U: Jase Febres, TEX - $5,500