It’s officially March and Saturday college basketball DFS is back! We have tons of meaningful matchups on today’s slate with the conference tournaments and NCAA Tournament right around the corner.

The main slate today tips off at 12 pm ET with nine different Top 25 teams in action - headlined by the Kentucky-Tennessee rematch with the SEC regular season title up for grabs. FanDuel and DraftKings both have 12-game slates with one matchup separating them - West Virginia-Oklahoma is unique to FD, and Syracuse-Wake Forest is only on DK.

After breaking down each of these matchups, one thing is very clear: There’s a ton of value plays on this slate and not a lot of depth in the expensive top-tier. This trend isn’t common on most deep slates like today’s as the elite cheap options are usually tough to come by. Instead, some of these players may be chalky - but they will allow you to pay up for multiple studs like Dedric Lawson and Cassius Winston.

With a specific eye towards recent game trends, favorable and/or tough matchups, rotations and KenPom’s advanced stats, we’ll outline the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS CBB lineups today for both sites. We’ll also point out the games to generally target and fade today based on pace of play, spread and implied point totals as predicted by KenPom.

Games To Target:

LSU @ Alabama - 12 pm ET (LSU -3 / 151 Implied Total)

North Carolina State @ Florida State - 12 pm ET (FSU -6 / 150 Implied Total)

Mississippi @ Arkansas - 1 pm ET (ARK -1 / 149 Implied Total)

Kentucky @ Tennessee - 2 pm ET (TENN -3 / 145 Implied Total)

 

Games To Fade:

Penn State @ Wisconsin - 1 pm ET (WISC -9 / 127 Implied Total)

Pittsburgh @ Virginia - 2 pm ET (UVA -20 / 122 Implied Total)

Butler @ Villanova - 2 pm ET (NOVA -7 / 137 Implied Total)

Ohio State @ Purdue - 2 pm ET (PUR -9 / 135 Implied Total)


Guards

Cassius Winston - MSU ($9,600 DK / $8,800 FD) - With a smaller top-tier of expensive guards today, Winston is one of the safest pay-up options on the slate. Over the last two games with Nick Ward out for the Spartans, Winston’s usage and DFS production have increased a ton as he’s had to do nearly everything on the offensive end. In those games - against Rutgers and Michigan - Winston scored 28 and 27 real points, respectively, with at least 44 DK points in both. Both marks are higher than his season averages of 19.2 real points and 36.5 DK points per game. The junior’s scoring has gone up not due to an increase in shot volume, but because he’s driving to the rim and getting to the foul line more with double-digit free throw attempts in both games. Prior to the Ward injury, he was only averaging about five free-throws per game on the season as he wasn’t needed to drive and score in the paint as much. With so much value on today’s slate, you can easily pay up for Winston and still have room for a couple other expensive options as well.

Tremont Waters - LSU ($9,000 DK / $8,200 FD) - Waters is expected back today after missing the past two games with an illness and he immediately becomes one of the better high-priced options. The sophomore point guard was getting a ton of usage as LSU’s dynamic playmaker before sitting out, averaging 37 DK points in his last ten games including four different games of at least 44 DK points. At this expensive price tag, Waters could go low-owned and become a nice GPP play because people might be more hesitant to roster him in his first game back from being sick. Yet, he was apparently close to playing last game and should be re-energized in his return today. In this season’s previous matchup vs. Alabama, Waters put up 33+ DK points and he could easily be the highest-scoring player on this slate with how much of a role he plays heading LSU’s offense.

Markell Johnson - NCST ($6,300 DK / $6,500 FD) - If you’re new to these playbooks, Markell Johnson is usually in play any time NC State is on the slate - but he carries huge risk because he can bust just as easily as he can smash value. Over the past four games, Johnson has two games of at least 36 DK points and two games where he scored less than 17 DK points. That’s a huge difference and could mean the difference between cashing and going home empty-handed because of the mid-tier price you must pay for him on both sites. The thing Johnson has going for him today, though, is the face that NC State is on the road. Oddly, the junior has been noticeably better in away games this season, averaging more than 10 fantasy points than at home. In these road matchups, Johnson’s scoring efficiency is better overall but he’s also been more active distributing the ball and grabbing rebounds - keeping his DFS floor and ceiling naturally higher.

Jase Febres - TEX ($4,300 DK / $4,800 FD) - With Kerwin Roach still suspended for Texas, Febres has moved into the starting rotation the last two games and put up two monster performances in extended playing time. The sophomore scored 15 and 23 real points in those two starts, averaging 33.6 DK points and returning 5x value or better on his FanDuel salary in both games. The increased minutes as a starter is certainly encouraging (35 and 43 minutes in the two games, respectively), but the shot volume is what’s kept his fantasy floor very high at this cheap price tag on both sites. Febres racked up 15 shots in each outing and all but one of his 30 attempts came from three-point range. The increased scoring opportunities as a starter - combined with at least seven rebounds/assists in each game - make him an elite value play yet again today as his recent production likely warrants a salary above 5k on both sites.

Other Guards to Consider:

Talen Horton-Tucker - ISU ($7,000 DK / $7,300 FD)

Tyler Herro - UK ($6,600 DK / $7,400 FD)

Lamonte Turner - TENN ($5,800 DK / $5,700 FD)?

Courtney Ramey - TEX ($5,500 DK / $5,800 FD)

Jordan McCabe - WVU ($4,900 FD ONLY)

Forwards

Dedric Lawson - KU ($9,900 DK / $8,600 FD) - You’ll notice there’s tons of value at the forward position today - making Lawson very affordable despite being one of the best pay-up options on this slate. When he faced Oklahoma State earlier this year, Lawson had 25 points, seven rebounds and five assists for nearly 44 DK points. In that game, Lawson had a big advantage in the paint as it became evident early that Oklahoma State did not have the size, talent or depth to guard him in the paint. OK State plays a tight, guard-heavy rotation with only two competent forwards in Cameron McGriff and Yor Anei, who are both foul-prone and could play soft defense on Lawson to avoid getting into foul trouble. Meanwhile, Lawson is coming off a dominant 18-point, 14-rebound performance vs. Kansas State where he put up 50 DK points - plus he’s averaging 38.5 DK points over the last ten outings with five games of at least 43 DK points. Some people may be worried about Lawson’s offensive role with Marcus Garrett now back, but he still put up 20 shots with Garrett back in the lineup earlier this week.

Mfiondu Kabengele ($6,400 DK / $5,800 FD) & Christ Koumadje ($5,300 DK / $5,700 FD) - Over the last month, Kabengele and Koumadje have basically traded games at Florida State’s center position where one smashes his price tag and the other fails to return value. Koumadje is the regular starter but he’s only played 20+ minutes twice in the past ten games. Meanwhile, Kabengele strictly comes off the bench but he’s logged 24+ minutes in six of the last ten and has been the go-to scorer when he’s on the court. Despite the playing time conundrum, both players boast very high DFS efficiency when they get the minutes and both have 30-40 DK point upside. The matchup today vs. NC State is also favorable to both as bigs usually do well against the Wolfpack as they are undersized, play at a fast pace and allow for tons of defensive rebounding opportunity to opposing forwards. Kabengele and Koumadje are both elite defensive rebounders in their own right - it’s just the playing time that’s been very unpredictable during conference play. On DraftKings, Koumadje is probably the better play with $1,100 savings - but Kabengele is more attractive on FanDuel as he’s only $100 more expensive than his teammate.

Justin Ahrens - OSU ($3,200 DK / $4,100 FD) - A week ago, Ahrens got the spot start in CJ Jackson’s place and put up 20.5 DK points in a season-high 27 minutes at a minimum price tag on DraftKings. On Tuesday with Jackson back healthy, Ahrens still started and had an even better encore performance with nearly 40 DK points in 30 minutes - still at min-price on DK. In that game, the freshman shooter exploded for 29 real points on 6-for-10 three-point shooting and going 9-for-9 from the free-throw line. Although these past two games came pretty much out of nowhere (Ahrens had played very sparingly off the bench for much of this season), expect Ahrens to be pretty chalky today as he should see a third straight start and his salary on both sites remains very affordable. Ahrens also gets a big upgrade with Kaleb Wesson now suspended and out today with more guaranteed playing time and shot volume coming.

Kamaka Hepa - TEX ($3,000 DK / $4,000 FD) - After Longhorns center Dylan Osetkowski was a late scratch Wednesday night, Kamaka Hepa stepped into the starting rotation and played a huge role for Texas in the overtime loss to Baylor. The freshman posted season-highs in minutes (39) and points (11), went 3-for-3 from three-point range and returned 22 DK points at his min-price on DraftKings. Osetkowski is still questionable for today’s game with the flu - which could mean big minutes for Hepa once again if he gets the start for a second straight game. Prior to his breakout Wednesday, Hepa had missed six of the previous seven games with concussion symptoms and played very sparingly off the bench for the rest of conference play. It’s safe to say no one expected him to play as much as he did Wednesday - let alone start and become a smash play at his cheap price tag. Kepa is still min-price on DK and only $1,000 more expensive on FD - making him a near-lock on both sites if he starts in Osetkowski’s place again.

Other Forwards to Consider:

Daniel Gafford - ARK ($8,500 DK / $8,100 FD)

Xavier Tillman - MSU ($6,500 DK / $7,000 FD)

Matt Haarms - PUR ($5,900 DK / $6,900 FD)

Mitch Lightfoot - KU ($4,200 DK / $4,800 FD)

Nick Richards - UK ($3,900 DK / $4,200 FD)

 

Example Lineup on DraftKings:

G: Cassius Winston, MSU - $9,600

G: Jase Febres, TEX - $4,300

G: Tremont Waters, LSU - $9,000

F: Dedric Lawson, KU - $9,900

F: Kamaka Hepa, TEX - $3,000

F: Justin Ahrens, OSU - $3,200

U: Nick Richards, UK - $3,900

U: Talen Horton-Tucker, ISU - $7,000

Example Lineup on FanDuel:

G: Cassius Winston, MSU - $8,800

G: Jase Febres, TEX - $4,800

G: Tyler Herro, UK - $7,400

G: Markell Johnson, NCST - $6,500

F: Dedric Lawson, KU - $8,600

F: Mfiondu Kabengele, NCST - $5,800

F: Justin Ahrens, OSU - $4,100

U: Kamaka Hepa, TEX - $4,000