S.F. Austin @ Alabama (-9) - 160
Duke (-7) @ Virginia Tech - 143
Providence (-1) @ Rhode Island - 142
USC @ TCU (-4) - 137
Pittsburgh @ Louisville (-12) - 129
Iowa @ Michigan (-6) - 143 (FanDuel Only)
Guards
Stephen F. Austin @ Alabama
This game is worth covering entirely at both guard and forward. Of all 353 teams in the country, Alabama ranks seventh and Stephen F. Austin ranks ninth in possessions per game. These are two of the fastest teams in the entire country and they’ll be feeding into each other’s playing styles. The current over/under is at 160, so Vegas is expecting this game to be in the 80’s and there’s a very good chance the over hits.
For Alabama, Kira Lewis Jr. (FD $6,900 DK $8,500) and John Petty Jr. (FD $6,700 DK $6,800) are two of the best plays on the slate. Lewis is the captain of this offense and the more consistent option. However, he’s a lot more expensive and Petty dropped 60 fantasy points two games ago and 30+ in three of the last four. You get a huge discount on John Petty Jr. and he has just as high of a floor and ceiling in this match-up. Do your best to fit both. Herbert Jones (FD $4,800 DK $4,400) has been getting some more minutes of late and his price is extremely cheap on both sites. With that said, James Bolden (FD $4,500 DK $4,000) is a guy I have a ton of interest in for value. He’s a shot-creator when on the floor and he can put in 40 fantasy points in this style of match-up.
On the SFA side of the ball, Kevon Harris (FD $7,000 DK $7,300) is the clear guard to own. He averages 30.3 fantasy points per night on 19 points, five boards, and two assists. This is the fastest game SF. Austin will play in all year and Harris is going to see his numbers greatly inflated. He’s locked into every lineup of mine. The rest of these Lumberjack guards are inconsistent, but throw last game out the window. They won 114-49 and the entire team played minutes. Cameron Johnson (FD $5,200 DK $5,500) and John Comeaux (FD $4,500 DK $5,200) are worth nothing as they’ll each play 25-30 minutes and make for solid values in the fast-pace match-up. Johnson is the better scorer of the two and he’s my favorite guard after Harris. The only other guard worth noting is Roti Ware (FD $3,700 DK $4,400), who plays inconsistent minutes but has upside if he’s on the floor for 25+. If you’re looking for value, this is the game to target.
Fatts Russell - Rhode Island - FD $8,000 DK $8,900
If you’re looking to pivot off of the guards in the SFA/ALA game, Fatts Russell is a great way to do it. He’s playing in his own fast-paced match-up and has been over 45 fantasy points in three of the last five games. Both Rhode Island and Providence play a fast brand of basketball and Russell is going to have a field day in the open floor. He’s expensive on both sites, but has as good of a chance at hitting 45 fantasy points as any guard on the slate. He will be a lot less owned than Kira Lewis, John Petty, and Kevon Harris and has a similar projection. The offense runs through Russell and he’ll play 34-38 minutes in this game. Rhode Island is going to score 70+ points and he’s my favorite guard on the board if price wasn’t a factor. It is, of course, and I prefer the guys listed above with the price.
Jordan Goldwire - Duke - FD $4,100 DK $3,900
Goldwire played 25 minutes last game with Cassius Stanley out and his price hasn’t risen on either site. If Goldwire gets another 25 minutes, this is a better match-up and you can project him for 20-25 fantasy points. Goldwire is an interesting story. He was a three-star recruit that was committed to Eastern Kentucky before Duke swooped in and stole him. They recruited him to run the second unit as a PG that doesn’t make mistakes and plays smart basketball. Coach K loves Goldwire and he’s going to give him minutes for any reason he can.
Alpha Diallo - Providence - FD $7,500 DK $8,300
I definitely prefer Fatts Russell as the offense is a lot more concentrated, but Alpha Diallo is the head of this Providence team and he’s a great play tonight. Rhode Island plays extremely fast (50th in the country) and Providence is going to pick up a few extra possessions in turn. Diallo is an animal in the first place and even more so in the open floor. Diallo stuffs the stat sheet and has been over 30 fantasy points in four straight games. You also get a healthy discount from Fatts Russell to Diallo, and you can use that money to pay up for one more star. Diallo has a similar ceiling as Russell and the guards in the super high total game. There’s enough value on this slate to pay up for a few of these guys.
Ryan McMahon - Louisville - FD $4,300 DK $5,100
For the number one ranked team, Louisville doesn’t have much going on at guard. Ryan McMahon plays the most consistent minutes and he can get hot in any game. McMahon averages 31 minutes per game, but he has been downright awful from a fantasy perspective. Still, the minutes are consistent and Pittsburgh struggles against the three-point line. His price is down on both sites and while there is value I prefer, McMahon is my favorite value play in this game. Darius Perry is in play in tournaments as well.
Consider - Zavier Simpson (MICH), Joe Touissant (IOWA), Desmond Bane (TCU), Landers Nolley II (VT), Jeff Dowtin (URI)
Forwards
Stephen F. Austin @ Alabama
This is definitely a guard-driven game, but there are a couple forwards worth noting on both sides of the ball. Again, with a 160 total, we want to make sure our lineups are focused around this game. There is no issue having five or six players from this game in your lineup. At least I don’t think so.
For the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks, Gavin Kensmil (FD $7,200 DK $6,800) is easily the best forward in this game and possibly the best play in this game. Kensmil has put up 30+ fantasy points in four straight games and he’s going to eat this Crimson Tide interior for dinner. You can lock in Kensmil for 40 fantasy points if he stays out of foul trouble. Nathan Bain (FD $4,600 DK $3,800) is the only other forward I have interest in as he’s priced down and should see 24-28 minutes. Still, Kensmil is far and away your priority at forward here.
For Alabama, they don’t have many forwards that play consistent minutes. There are going to be a couple guys, however, that hit value. This game is extremely fast and they need the bodies on Gavin Kensmil down low. We touched on Herbert Jones at guard and he’s in play here as well with dual-position eligibility. Alex Reese (FD $4,700 DK $5,200) and Javian Davis (FD $5,000 DK $5,000) should both get a boost in minutes and I’m fine with both of them in any format. With that said, the Alabama team runs out four guards at most times and there just isn’t much to love here. Focus on the Crimson Tide guards.
Vernon Carey - Duke - FD $8,200 DK $8,700
Carey is the most expensive option on the board on both sites and rightfully so. No matter how many minutes he’s playing, Carey is double-doubling and putting up 40 fantasy points. He may actually play a full 30-35 minutes in this game and should eat against this Hokies interior. P.J. Horne is not a great defender and Carey is going to demolish him on the outside and in the paint. There is enough value on this slate to pay up and I’ve been able to fit Carey with the studs from SFA/ALA without much issue. Carey Jr. is a lock for 40 fantasy points in this match-up and we haven’t seen where his upside is just yet. LIkely in the 60’s.
Cyril Langevine - Rhode Island - FD $6,500 DK $7,500
This is another high total game we want exposure to and Cyril Langevine is the clear-cut best big man on the floor here. He’s going to give Providence issues down low as Nate Watson and Emmitt Holt simply can’t contain him. Rhode Island is used to playing fast and the Providence big men will have trouble keeping up. Langevine is extremely lethal in the open floor and he’s a solid rebounder as well. Rhode Island makes it a point to feed Langevine and his price is far too low for where his upside lies. Langevine got up to 34 minutes in his last game and averages over 30. He’s incredibly safe with the fast-paced match-up and depressed price tag.
Jack White - Duke - FD $4,400 DK $4,400
White is another guy that’s benefited from Cassius Stanley being out. He played 31 minutes against Michigan State and put up 25 fantasy points. White is a do-it-all type player, but he can also get hot and blow this slate wide open. For his price, I don’t see a viable reason to fade Jack White. The senior is getting as much playing time as he can in big games and it’s because of the extensive experience he has. For way too cheap on both sites, White is your best value play at forward.
Isaiah Livers - Michigan - FD $5,900
Livers is the leading-scorer for Michigan at 15 points a night and he’s priced way down on FanDuel to under $6k. Livers is the number one option on offense and he’s been over 34 minutes in four straight games. Outside of a tough match-up with Louisville, Livers has been over 22 fantasy points in every single game. Iowa plays a bit faster than Michigan and Livers is going to be asked to get back to his usual 15-20 real-life points a night. Livers is only on FanDuel, but he’s a great play there in both cash games and tournaments.
Consider - Jordan Nwora (LOU), Jon Teske (MICH), P.J. Horne (VT), Kevin Samuel (TCU)
