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2023 Player Outlook

2023 Recap: There's nothing like a breakout season at the young, ripe age of 34! Well, that's what Kelly did in his fifth season with the Diamondbacks, posting a 3.29 ERA (4.13 xERA, 3.85 FIP) with a 12-8 record, 1.19 WHIP, and career-best 25.9 percent strikeout rate. He benefitted from an 88th percentile chase rate, which bested his previous career best of the 54th percentile in 2022. There weren't any major shifts in his pitch mix, though he increased the usage on his changeup and cutter compared to previous seasons, and his slider is slowly but surely becoming more involved. 

2024 Outlook: When you consider that he increased the usage on his changeup and slider, which just so happen to be his two pitches with the highest whiff and chase rates, you can start to explain the jump in his strikeout rate. More importantly, we can paint the picture that it wasn't just a fluke, and that he should hover right around one strikeout per inning in 2024. His current ADP is a bit confusing, unless everyone just believes that regression is in store and 2023 was a fluke. I don't believe that to be the case, and even if his K/9 drops to 8.5 (9.47 in 2023), he'll still provide a sub-4.00 ERA with a WHIP below 1.30 and 10-14 wins, and I'm being rather conservative with those numbers. He should be a top 35 starter this season, making him a solid value in drafts.

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