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2023 Player Outlook

2023 Recap: Across 23 starts last year, spanning 120.1 IP, he posted a 9-4 record at the young age of 36, while posting the lowest ERA of his career (3.14) since his first stint in Milwaukee in 2018 (2.57). Last year’s 16.1 percent strikeout rate was his lowest in the last half-decade, and I can’t help but stare at his 4.36 xERA. He allowed some higher batted ball metrics than one would like, and his fly ball rate has been increasing year over year. 

2024 Outlook: Home runs got to him a bit last year, and if he continues to allow fly balls, the elevated hard contact rates are going to push his ERA closer to where his FIP and expected metrics reside. Miley’s spot is safe in the rotation, as Milwaukee needs some steady presences there, but regression is in store for Miley in 2024, as his profile doesn’t lend itself to a third straight season with an ERA under 3.50, especially when his FIP hasn’t below 3.50 in a season since 2012.

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