Game 3 was supposed to be different; the bookies ended up placing the Dallas Mavericks with a 3.5 spread advantage. However, it was more of the same: the Boston Celtics winning on the road. In fact, Boston has won all nine of its playoff road games, and 10 games in a row. There are franchises that haven’t won a playoff game this decade, and Boston has made it look easy.

 

 

 

The Celtics have quietly gone about producing one of the best seasons of their illustrious franchise's history. There has not been a team this dominant since the 2017 Golden State Warriors, who won 67 games and went 15-1 in the playoffs. That team is greatly discredited, and many fans (and analysts) view it as a dishonorable championship – particularly for Kevin Durant. The Boston Celtics title likely will not be viewed in that manner, should they win it all.

NBA Picks & Predictions Today, 6/14: Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 4

Game 4 is currently set as a pick ‘em, implying both team’s moneyline are at -110. Game 3 felt like a trap, and Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets and Player Props warned of it. The bookies are essentially saying they cannot predict the outcome of this game, as simulations are going to have difficulty accounting for players' mindsets in a 3-0 Finals.

However, Fantasy Alarm has found some great angles with some of the most popular, unit-stacking players throughout the playoffs. The NBA predictions ‘Bet of the Night’ is the first time this player has been mentioned in the Finals, but he has been very good to us.

 

 

 

Mavericks vs. Celtics Prediction: Jayson Tatum Under 27.5 Points (-115 on Bet365 Sportsbook)

Welcome Jayson Tatum back to the best bets column. Tatum’s volatile scoring can make betting on him difficult. He was not needed as a scorer in Games 1 and 2, but with Kristaps Porzingis out in Game 3, Tatum was asked to be more of a scorer. And he delivered too. 

Tatum was Boston’s leading scorer with 31 points. It has become almost automatic to bet on Tatum following a big performance, and with good reason. As one of the most popular players in the NBA, his point line can inflate quickly. His line jumped from 24.5 to 27.5 and we should bet a unit on his under.

Porzingis is more than likely out for the remainder of the season, and this could lead to more points from Tatum. He has not been the best scorer for their offense and has yielded the ‘clutch’ moments to Jaylen Brown throughout this historic playoff run. In addition to that, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White have been an excellent backcourt throughout this series. 

Tatum has truly been reliable on scoring less than his line, and we are counting on it again. Three of his last four games have been under his projected line total, and the Dallas Mavericks will have to play better defense if they hope to extend the series. Despite an awful game and lack of minutes in Game 3, Derrick Jones Jr. has played good defense on Tatum. This is also a shorter turnaround than the previous games; Boston has their second road game in three days. 

There are several factors which could make this bet successful, but ultimately, Dallas will need to limit his field goal attempts to ensure this ticket cashes. Our NBA picks will put a unit on Tatum one more time.

 

 

 

Mavericks vs Celtics SGP: Doncic O32.5 P + Lively II O8.5 R + BOS +1.5 (+800 on Bet365 Sportsbook)

Luka Doncic was the media pinata yesterday as he was criticized for everything – perhaps deservingly so. He picked up two fouls within 30 seconds, both with less than five minutes left in the fourth quarter, fouling out in a close game. This coming after an epic run by the Dallas Mavericks, giving them a legitimate chance to win Game 3. He went on to curse at his coaches, and just wasn’t there when his team needed him the most. 

The one issue no one discussed is how awful and inconsistent Marc Davis and his crew were that night. Both teams were yelling at the officials and this was not the first questionable 2024 playoff game that Davis’ crew was officiating. 

Doncic was visibly frustrated with head coach Jason Kidd calling a timeout after a defensive rebound, essentially ending their great fourth quarter run. Doncic seemed to let this get the best of his discipline and had two unnecessary fouls quickly afterwards. Yet, this was just as unnecessary a call as the famous foul late in the 2024 March Madness tournament – is it acceptable to make a blocking foul with the game so close?

Either way, that is old news, as Game 4 is here and we are counting on a redemptive game from the 2023-24 NBA scoring leader. His point line is at 32.5 and Kyrie Irving played 45 minutes in Game 3. Doncic will have to step it up, play deep minutes and carry a heavy offensive load. Look for 33 or more points from him tonight.

Derek Lively II has been our most bet on player in the Finals. He played 30 minutes in Game 3 and earned a double-double – an impressive feat for a rookie. He is their best center and the Mavericks seemed fully invested as the big to pair with Luka Doncic, both forming the core of their future. He could (and should) see over 30 minutes tonight as Maxi Kleber has been absolutely abysmal.

This will be the third game in which we have bet over his rebounding line, and this is the highest it has been set. Nine rebounds will not be easy, but he has been the best center in this series. He is like Mr. Flash around the rim bouncing in and out of all block outs, dominating the paint and has a good rhythm with Doncic. Look for 10 or more rebounds tonight.

The Dallas Mavericks have done everything they can to beat the Celtics and it has not been enough. The 2023-24 Boston Celtics remind me a lot of another all-time great legend: Julio Cesar Chavez. 

You may win a round (quarter), you may land a few good punches (score against them), you may believe you can take them down… but nothing appears to phase him/them. They both just keep their offensive going relentlessly, and at the end of the match, they both are victorious. Chavez had only six losses in his career, and Boston has a total of six losses at home this season.

The Celtics are also chasing down history with a perfect 10 wins in 10 playoff road games. It is difficult to get one playoff road victory, but to win a championship without so much as one flaw on the road speaks volumes. Boston has had several great champions across all sports and a victory tonight puts the 2023-24 Celtics amongst those all-time champion legends. 

Of course, they do not have to win for this Same Game Parlay to be successful, with a 1.5 spread. However, a win is the more reasonable path for the latter of our NBA predictions today to be successful. 

Bet365 Sportsbook has a 50% boost for this match, and it should be utilized. It is capped off with a $30 max wager, but as always, one can bet again on the ticket without the boost. For this bet, $30 would return a total of $390.

 

 

 

If this is the last game of the 2023-24 NBA season, I want to say thank you for reading my NBA best bets column. I hope you were able to win and withdraw several units throughout the season, and I hope to see you all in the next campaign!

Don't forget to check out Fantasy Alarm for more tips on sports betting, in-depth DFS analysis, NFL best ball cheat sheets and the latest sports news.

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All odds accurate at time of writing and NBA bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise