Last week we touched on some value outfielders you should grab in your fantasy baseball drafts. Now that baseball is back, let’s look at a couple of guys that have a chance to reach the 20 home run, 20 stolen base club in the outfield for the first time in their respective careers. With the lack of speed on the market, some of these guys could possibly be league winners!


 (2021 numbers; 68 games, 13 HR, & 6 SB)

It’s very clear that Luis Robert has every tool in the tool shed to be one of the very best players in the league. He hits for average, power, and runs like a gazelle. There is a reason Robert is being drafted within the first 20 picks according to NFC ADP.

After a lackluster rookie campaign, Robert went from a 32% K-rate down to 20.6% and his average jumped from .233 to .338. That type of meteoric rise was consistent across the board. Through his first 124 games, across two seasons, he’s belted 24 home runs and has 15 stolen bases. I’m no math expert, but that puts him on a pretty good pace over the course of 162 games to reach the 20-20 plateau. 

The home runs won’t be the thing holding him back from becoming a 20-20 member, but the stolen bases may. Manager Tony La Russa did not run a lot and that does have something to do with the way their roster was constructed. Chicago only stole 57 bags last year, which was 22nd in Major League Baseball. That being said, he only had Robert for 68 games, so look for that to change in a major way in 2022.



 (2021 numbers; 132 games, 15 HR, & 13 SB)

2021 was a tale of two halves for Trent Grisham as he looked poised to take the next step as a player for the Padres before the All-Star break, but fell off a cliff in the second half and provided them little to nothing. Despite dealing with multiple injuries in the first half of the year, Grisham hit .274 with 11 HR and stolen eight bags. As you see from the highlighted graphic below, the second half did not go well.


In Grisham’s short career, this has been a trend that he’s going to have to shake. His 2020 second-half numbers were also bad, albeit on a smaller scale, but the point remains. If he’s going to become the 30 home run, 20 stolen base guy we think he can and will be, he’s going to have to put two halves of the season together.

Two things to note about Grisham’s decline last year was an elevated strikeout rate in the second half, which played into a lower walk rate as well and he hit the ball significantly less hard. His K-rate sat at 18% in the first half of ‘21 and spiked to 23% after the break. His hard-hit rate of 33.9% in the first half dropped all the way to 25.3%.

The upside is through the roof for Grisham and maybe his first-half injuries took a toll on his body in the second half. With Tommy Pham hitting free agency, Grisham is slated to hit atop the Padres lineup this year. He’s poised to take the next step, a step towards a 20-20 campaign.


(2021 numbers; 61 games, 19 HR, & 9 SB)

It’s almost crazy to think this hasn’t happened yet considering the meteoric rise to the top of all prospect lists years back before Buxton made his major league debut. Health has not been on Buxton’s side in the slightest and we’re getting to the last straw portion of the program. It’s not that anybody doubts his skill, but it’s more about just staying healthy.

Buxton has been able to play more than 92 games just once in his career, a career that started in 2015 at 21 years young. In that one season, Buxton belted 16 homers and swiped 29 bags. Fast forward to 2021 and Buxton flashed MASSIVE power, hitting 19 home runs in just 61 games but limited him.



Over the last two seasons, Buxton’s power has flourished, notching a .324 ISO and an 8.2% HR rate. For context, Salvador Perez, who hit 48 home runs in 2021, had a home run rate of 7.2%. Vlad Guerrero Jr., who tied Perez with 48 homers was at 6.9%.

The stolen bases could be the hang-up. Do the Twins, who just extended Buxton last year, want their 28-year old injury-prone outfielder to run a lot? He attempted 10 SB in ‘21 and he played in just 61 games. That’s a 26 stolen base pace over 162 games. Buxton has as much upside as anyone so damn it man, just stay healthy!



(2021 numbers; 125 games, 13 HR, & 18 SB)


It was a wonderful rookie year for Akil Baddoo as we saw serious potential in the Tigers outfielder and likely their leadoff hitter for years, and years to come. Baddoo finished his 2021 campaign just two steals shy of 20 in just his first season in the bigs. He also belted 13 home runs and had a .436 SLG%, just showing everyone he doesn’t just run, but he hits for power too.


The kicker about Baddoo’s debut in the bigs is that he played in just 124 games and had less than 500 at-bats. There’s no reason to think he doesn’t approach 600 in ‘22 because he’s going to play every day. Where we need to see Baddoo improve in order to take the next step is against left-handed pitching.


Look at his splits from a year ago. All 13 of his home runs came against right-handed pitching and he even hit above .270 against them. That’s why we didn’t see him play nearly as much as we would have liked to see.



Let’s look at his advanced splits, shall we? A .495 SLG% against RHP but a measly .245 against LHP. A wRC+ of 47, is a number we can get by sitting on our couches. Kidding, but you get the point. He doesn’t have the best track record against left-handers, even throughout his minor league career, but he’ll get enough at-bats to push for 20 homers.


In the stolen base department, the Tigers ran a lot in 2021. Manager AJ Hinch ran them and ran them and ran them just when you thought they were done running. They were seventh in baseball with 88 stolen bases and with Baddoo’s elite speed, he should easily clear 20 here.


Dark Horses



(2021 numbers; 103 games, 11 HR, & 12 SB)

First and foremost, what a 2021 revelation Rafael Ortega had. Despite the fact he only played in 103 games, what a season it was. Now that we got that out of the way, can he replicate what he did last year is the question? Will, he even have a full-time role in another one? Let’s dive into why that’s possible.

Across his 103 games in 2021, Ortega notched a robust .360 OBP and .463 SLG%. His .172 ISO and .355 wOBA out of the leadoff spot was impressive. Two things that should help Ortega here flirt with this milestone;

His home ballpark is Wrigley Field where the sixth-most home runs were hit last year and only four of Ortega’s were hit there, so positive regression is likely on the horizon. Secondly, the Cubs ran a lot in 2021 and there’s no reason to think that won’t continue here. They were 10th in the MLB with 85 stolen bases and if Ortega can approach 500 at-bats, he could swipe 20 bags.

Ortega has multiple 20+ stolen base campaigns on his laundry list of minor league seasons and most recently blasted 21 bombs in ‘19 stint at Triple-A. Again, this will ALL come down to the number of at-bats he ends up getting, but if the luck comes Ortega’s way again, he’s a sneaky 20-20 candidate.



(2021 numbers: 78 games, 9 HR, & 10 SB)

When you look into Fraley’s projections, most places are projecting a capped number of at-bats. Some places have him getting into the 400s, but most are the high 300s. Although that is possible, we have to examine the landscape of the Mariners' potential outfield.


Kyle Lewis has a list of injuries longer than your mother’s Costco receipt. Mitch Haniger, coming off a career year, has played more than 100 games twice in five seasons as well. Dylan Moore, Fraley’s biggest challenge for playing time, hit .181 and had a .272 wOBA a year ago. He’s struck out 30% of the time through the first three seasons of his career. We can pencil in Jarred Kelenic into a big role, but if he hits below the “Mendoza Line” again, the Mariners do have two options to the minors in their back pocket.


Did anyone think Robbie Grossman was going to randomly have a 20-20 campaign in 2021? No, but that’s why they play the game.


Fraley had a lot of success against right-handed pitching last year posting a .374 OBP, .441 SLG%, .210 ISO, and .354 wOBA. He has to improve against left-handed pitching, that’s apparent, and where he likely loses out on some at-bats. The last time Fraley had any sort of success against southpaws was back in 2018 in the minors where he posted a .812 OPS.


If we see the improvement against lefties early in the 2022 campaign, Fraley could be poised for a breakout campaign and could be this year's, Robbie Grossman.

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