We all have players we’re high on and all have guys we’re a little squeamish on heading into every fantasy baseball season. Here we are looking at some guys we should consider fading at their current average draft position (ADP) for the upcoming 2022 MLB campaign.
(ADP - 95.06, Position Rank: OF29)
As much as I want to believe in Cody Bellinger’s return to his MVP form, are we 100% sure he’s going to? Half of the industry seems to think he will and half seems to think he won’t, which is why he currently sits at OF29 this month according to NFC’s ADP report.
Bellinger, despite having a very solid postseason, was absolutely atrocious during the regular season and there was really nothing “light at the end of the tunnel”-related. Bellinger’s team is absolutely stacked and maybe that will alleviate some pressure off of Bellinger’s shoulders but again, the numbers from 2021 do not suggest it.
Here are his 2021 numbers versus career numbers;
- SLG% - ‘21: .302 / Career: .511
- ISO - ‘21: .137 / Career: .253
- wOBA - ‘21: .237 / Career: .355
- K rate - ‘21: 26.9% / Career: 22.2%
- BB rate - ‘21: 8.9% / Career: 11.9%
- Hard-hit rate - ‘21: 30.8% / Career: 41.8%
What is there to actually like? It’s hard to think he’ll be that bad again and if you’re building out multiple rosters, hedging on Bellinger isn’t the worst idea in case he does get back to MVP form. If you’re someone who is building out just a couple of teams, unless he really falls down a draft board, I don’t recommend drafting him at this ADP.
(ADP - 138.98, Position Rank: OF35)
We are ALL desperate for that guy who’s going to steal 30 bases because right now, there is simply a shortage as bad as there is rain in a desert. Myles Straw stole 30 bags last year and only SIX players can stake claim to that. That being said, should we be putting stock into Straw being that type of impactful base stealer again? Is he going to be Cleveland’s leadoff hitter all year long? Let’s dive into that.
Straw’s peripheral stats do not appear to be all too great. First off, he was very lucky last year, as he posted a .336 BABIP last season. He had a lowly .311 wOBA while also posting an abysmal 22% hard-hit rate. There's nothing really encouraging about those numbers.
When you break them down even further, could Straw be moved down in the order against lefties? Could he flat-out be taken out of the lineup? He hit just .243 against them last year and had a .272 wOBA. That’s been par for the course throughout his career as he’s hit .224 against them and has BARELY reached base 30% of the time.
We all loved the prospects of drafting the likes of Billy Hamilton and Mallex Smith until we didn’t. Will Straw fall (bars) into that same category? At this ADP, it’s not something I’m looking to find out.
(ADP - 165.20, Position Rank: OF42)
What can you pinpoint for me that makes Alex Verdugo a very reliable and productive fantasy producer? He doesn’t hit for much power, his career-high in stolen bases is six and sure, he’s a relatively high on-base guy, but is that a top-50 fantasy outfielder?
His career-high ISO is .181 and his career average is .154. He had 600 at-bats and mustered up 13 home runs, where’s the upside for improvement there? Although everyone thinks Fenway Park is a home run haven, it has been anything but that in recent years, so he doesn’t play in the most favorable home run hitting environment either. According to Baseball Savant, Fenway Park has ranked 17th or worse in home runs hit in each of the last three seasons.
He does not strike out all that much, but he doesn’t really draw walks either and really relies on contact to reach base, which has paid off for him over the past two seasons, but it’s not the greatest thing to rely on in fantasy baseball outside of leagues that use on-base percentages.
- 2022 MLB Free Agent Tracker
- 2022 Ultimate Fantasy Baseball Cheat Sheet
- Outfield: ADP Trends
- Outfield: 20-20 Vision
- Outfield: Grande's Gems
- Streaming Strategies for Hitters and Pitchers