For those in leagues with two catcher requirements, finding a stable one without playing time issues in a hitter-friendly environment can be underrated. If this applies to your league, welcome to Pedro Severino . Over 48 games in 2020, he hit .250/.322/.388 with 17 runs, five home runs, 21 RBI and a stolen base in 178 plate appearances. He notched a walk percentage of 9.0 with a 22.5 percent strikeout rate. His .138 isolated power could improve, further enhancing his profile as could his .312 weighted on-base average (wOBA).
Trends in his approach went in the opposite direction fantasy players prefer. Severino's swinging strike percentage rose to 11.9 percent while his contact rate fell to 74.1 percent. Thankfully, his Z-Contact (in the strike zone) percentage remained stable at 87.8 percent.
According to Statcast, Severino recorded 121 batted ball events with nine barrels (7.4 percent), an 87.6 MPH average exit velocity and a 31.4 percent hard hit rate. His expected statistics provide hope for 2021. He finished with a .267 expected batting average, .427 expected slugging, and .335 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). All above his actual numbers and illustrated within his zone profile:
Delving into his batted ball data further, one would prefer Severino to elevate more of his events. He finished with a 43.8 percent ground ball rate last year but with an alluring 33.9 percent line drive rate as well, which fueled his expected numbers above. Of his five home runs in 2020, four rated as no-doubters (out of any MLB ballpark). Dating back to 2019, of his 18 actual home runs, his expected home run total rises to 20 with a 61.1 no-doubt percentage of them.
Staying with this expanded sample, Severino's last two seasons yields a .249/.321/.409 slash with 54 runs, 18 home runs, 65 RBI and four stolen bases over 519 plate appearances. This represents a solid floor with room for improvement if the quality of contact enables positive migration to the mean in 2021. Here are his projection sets:
If Severino attains the counting statistics (with a chance at beating them) with an average at or above .255, his value in a two-catcher format increases. Enter with eyes wide open and hope he takes a step forward during his power peak.
THE BAT and THE BAT X courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski