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Sorry, folks. Week 10 wasn’t as magical in terms of predictions as many of the previous weeks have been and as much as I’d love to move on, I still owe it to you all to break down my wide receiver Nostra-Dom-Us picks from last week…
Most surprisingly of all, Mike Evans was inexplicably untargeted in the first half of the Buccaneers matchup with the Bears. Jameis Winston seemed to remember that Evans existed by the second half, allowing the stud wideout to finish with four catches for 66 yards.
A.J. Green’s numbers suffered, as Andy Dalton struggled to get the ball down the field on Monday night. The reason? Suddenly the Giants high-priced defensive line decided to wake up for the first time this season and actually managed to put pressure on the quarterback. In the end, he finished with a respectable seven catches for 68 yards and a touchdown, but still below my expectations.
Rishard Matthews produced just about how I expected he would, however I did foresee a few more catches and targets. Ultimately, he still got into the end zone and tallied 68 yards, so all was well. He was probably my best value pick out of the bunch.
J.J. Nelson on the other hand was my most disappointing pick of all. It was really shortsighted by me considering he has very little evidence of a prolonged plan for consistent production. I still do love his talent and I have been preaching his ability since his time as a kick returner extraordinaire at UAB, however it’s always a bit irresponsible to latch onto a one-hit wonder. I will not waiver from liking him going forward however, as his standing as the number two receiver in this offense is a lucrative position to be in…
So there you have it, Nostra-Dom-Us stunk last week, but I like to think that I have won people a lot of money this season, so you all could afford a let down every once in a while. Anyway, this week is looking up… Below I breakdown every (outside the hashes) WR vs. CB matchup; further below Nostra-Dom-Us gets back on the horse and gives you the wide receiver picks of the week.
| Off | Left WR | Def | Right CB | Analysis |
| ARI | Larry Fitzgerald | MIN | Xavier Rhodes | It's now been over a month since Fitz has gotten into the end zone, but regardless, he continues to produce at a high level. Considering Xavier Rhodes will be limping into this contest – if he even plays at all – I will take my chances with the veteran wide receiver in fantasy once again. Don't let this once great Minnesota defense deter you from playing Fitz, especially in PPR formats. |
| BAL | Steve Smith/Kamar Aiken | DAL | Anthony Brown | Smith has been rather consistent this season, and while I do not fear that Anthony Brown will throw him off course, I do believe that the Cowboys heavy time possession game plan will lower his total targets. Feel free to start Smith, just lower your expectations slightly. |
| BUF | Marquise Goodwin | CIN | Adam Jones | Goodwin's entire game is predicated on the big play. Big plays cannot be predicted. Thus, pass on him in all formats going forward. |
| CAR | Kelvin Benjamin | NO | De'Vante Harris | It's now five straight games with 70 yards receiving or more for Benjamin, and while he cost his team the game last week with a critical late-game fumble, I still expect the Panthers to continue to target their best wideout heavily. Taking on the Saints is always a blessing for fantasy wide receivers, so owners are being given the green light on Benjamin this week. |
| CHI | Eddie Royal | NYG | Janoris Jenkins | This Giants secondary has been very good all season long and considering Alshon Jeffery has just been suspended for the next four games due to PED use, I do not expect this Bears passing attack to threaten them very much. Pass on Royal in all formats on Sunday. |
| CIN | A.J. Green | BUF | Ronald Darby | Considering how disappointing Ronald Darby has been all season long, I fully expect A.J. Green to take advantage in this matchup here. Really though, I believe that he will take advantage of whomever lines up across from him, so don’t think twice about starting Green this week. |
| CLE | Andrew Hawkins | PIT | Ross Cockrell | Hawkins' last week performance should be enough for fantasy owners to stay away… He was completely shut out by the Ravens. I expect the Steelers to give him fits as well in Week 11. |
| DAL | Dez Bryant | BAL | Jimmy Smith | Dez seems to be hot and cold alternating weeks when healthy this season, however I expect him to buck that trend this week, as he will be taking on a banged up Jimmy Smith. Expect Dak to look his way early and often, as Dez should be well on his way to 100 yards and a touchdown. |
| DET | Golden Tate | JAX | Jalen Ramsey | Ramsey has been excellent all season long and Tate can't say the same. While Tate is riding a hot streak of sorts, I still feel that Ramsey will get the better of him in this matchup, regardless of where he lines up (outside or slot). |
| GB | Jordy Nelson | WAS | Josh Norman | Nelson is leading the NFL in receiving touchdowns with eight, has three straight games with a score, and has three straight games with at least 94 receiving yards. Regardless of matchup, he has to be a WR1 going forward. Norman is sure to give him fits, but at this point not starting Nelson is taking too big of a risk. |
| HOU | DeAndre Hopkins | OAK | Sean Smith | The targets are there for Hopkins, but the production just is not. His quarterback has been god awful all season long and fantasy owners would be irresponsible to continue starting Hopkins each week. The Raiders secondary is nothing to write home about, but I still don't feel comfortable starting Hopkins. |
| IND | Donte Moncrief | TEN | Jason McCourty | While still the second option in this offense, Crief is the perfered target in the red zone for Andrew Luck. Last time these Colts took on the Titans, they exploded through the air en route to a clutch divisional victory. Expect more of the same considering now they will have another weapon in Moncrief this time around. |
| JAX | Allen Robinson | DET | Nevin Lawson | Robinson has come alive of late after a disappointing start to the season, while Lawson can't say the same. Robinson has been targeted 15, 12, and 13 times in the last three games, and while the Jags have lost all three games, Robinson's production has been great. Over the span he's got 22 catches for 253 yards and two touchdowns. He peaked with nine receptions, 107 yards, and a touchdown last week, so fantasy owners should ride the hot hand into Week 11. |
| KC | Albert Wilson | TB | Alterraun Verner | I don't think I could start Wilson in any fantasy format even if there was a gun pointed at my head. |
| LA | Kenny Britt | MIA | Tony Lippett | Britt has been a pretty reliable receiving option this season and should be considered in the WR2/3 department nearly every week going forward. Tony Lippett is no reason to bench Britt this week, and neither is the Rams quarterback change. |
| MIA | DeVante Parker | LA | E.J. Gaines | Gaines is nothing special, and Parker's talent is. Having said that, Parker is still young and incredibly inconsistent, so fantasy owners should take his last week's production with a grain of salt. He as always will have upside this week, however his matchup does not indicate that for any particular reason. Start him if you are daring enough. |
| MIN | Stefon Diggs | ARI | Marcus Cooper | Diggs has been red hot lately, and as much as I want to start him in all of my leagues this week, I fear his drawing of Patrick Peterson. Cardinals coach Bruce Arians just confirmed that Peterson will shadow Diggs on Sunday, and based off of that matchup last season, I fear for Diggs' production. Ignore the chart saying Marcus Cooper here. |
| NE | Chris Hogan | SF | Jimmie Ward | Hogan is the Patriots lone deep threat and really only sees production in that capacity. He very well could play well this week, but predicting his production each week is exhausting. Thus, I tend to stay away from Hogan each week, regardless of matchup. |
| NO | Michael Thomas | CAR | Daryl Worley | Despite the official title being given to Brandin Cooks, rookie Michael Thomas is in fact the Saints number one receiver. People would love to rag on him for his two fumbles lost last week, however I doubt that that will deter Drew Brees from looking his way going forward. Expect Thomas to bounce back in a big way against the Panthers weak secondary in Week 11. |
| NYG | Odell Beckham | CHI | Deiondre' Hall | This Bears secondary is nothing special and Beckham has been hot of late. Expect him to get into the end zone at least once against the Bears on Sunday and consider him a WR1 for the week. |
| OAK | Michael Crabtree | HOU | Johnathan Joseph | The Texans boast a tough secondary to throw on, and while the Raiders offense exploded in their last game against another great defense in the Broncos, they did not slaughter them through the air like they have done against all of their other opponents. Crabtree in fact really struggled against the Broncos and I expect it to be tough sledding for him once again against the Texans this week. |
| PHI | Jordan Matthews | SEA | Jeremy Lane | Matthews is the Eagles best receiver and while I expect him to be moved all over the formation in order to get him open, I also expect the Seahawks to matchup well with him where ever he is moved. He may get adequate numbers in Week 11, but I see little chance of him blowing up against this very talented Seattle defense. |
| PIT | Antonio Brown | CLE | Jamar Taylor | Brown is the play of the week. He's coming off of a great game against Dallas, and the Steelers have their backs against the wall in desperate need of a win. He will be ridden to the tune of at least 15 targets and will be a matchup nightmare for whomever lines up across from him on Sunday. I suspect that Joe Haden will be cursed with the task. |
| SF | Torrey Smith | NE | Logan Ryan | Smith is unstartable in any format. |
| SEA | Doug Baldwin | PHI | Nolan Carroll | Baldwin finally appeared to return to form last Sunday night, as he got into the end zone three times against a solid Patriots defense. If this is any indication of him and Russell Wilson getting back to their 2015 second half form, then I will be riding the momentum in Week 11. The Eagles defense has been good all season, but the potential of Baldwin regaining form is just too much to pass up at his current DFS price. |
| TB | Adam Humphries | KC | Phillip Gaines | Humphries is a nice player, but he just doesn't see enough targets to be considered on the fantasy radar. |
| TEN | Rishard Matthews | IND | Vontae Davis | Matthews, quietly has been one of the better fantasy receivers in the league over the last six weeks, as he has gotten into the end zone six times during that span. Against a weak Indianapolis defense, I see no reason that his production should slow down any time soon. |
| WAS | Pierre Garcon | GB | Ladarius Gunter | Garçon has not been the best fantasy option this season, however he did play well last week and this week he will be taking on an incredibly banged up secondary in the Packers. He may be worth a flyer play for Week 11. |
| Off | Right WR | Def | Left CB | Analysis |
| ARI | J.J. Nelson | MIN | Terence Newman | Nelson was expected to go off in a big way last week in following up his massive Week 9, however things didn’t go as planned. Still slotted as the Cardinals number two receiver, Nelson holds value, espeically on big plays. He should have every opportunity to burn the weathered vet in Terrence Newman this week, but banking on it is another story. I would stay away from him if possible, yet I wouldn't be surprised if he had another big game. |
| BAL | Mike Wallace | DAL | Brandon Carr | Wallace has the speed to burn Carr, but like Nelson, his production is kind of tied to the big play. Considering the Cowboys game plan of ball control, I am not sure how many opportunities will be there for Wallace to get behind this banged up Dallas secondary. He's worth a look, but I don't love the matchup. |
| BUF | Robert Woods | CIN | Dre Kirkpatrick | Trusting the Bills passing game is very risky. I don't love Woods' talent and Kirkpatrick is a good corner. Safe to say that I will be staying away from Woods in this one. |
| CAR | Ted Ginn Jr. | NO | Ken Crawley | Ginn is never an option in any of my fantasy formats, even against a bad New Orleans secondary. |
| CHI | Cameron Meredith | NYG | Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie | This Giants secondary has been lockdown this season and Meredith hasn’t been the same since Brian Hoyer went down with a season-ending injury. He has a chance to re-ermerge in this Bears passing game with the suspension of Alshon Jeffery, however I will not be holding my breath. |
| CIN | Brandon LaFell | BUF | Stephon Gilmore | As we know, LaFell is one of my "non-start" players each week, but he does have a solid matchup against a struggling Bills secondary in Week 11. Take that for what you will, I however will be staying away from him as usual. |
| CLE | Terrelle Pryor | PIT | William Gay | Pryor is just about the only thing going for the Browns right now, but even in that regard, he's struggled over the last two games. The targets and receptions are there, however he isn't doing much with them. You can start him as a WR3 in PPR formats, but he's a risk in standard leagues right now. |
| DAL | Terrance Williams | BAL | Shareece Wright | Williams is a non-factor when Dez Bryant is healthy. Pass on him each week unless Dez is inactive. |
| DET | Marvin Jones | JAX | Davon House | Really since his Week 3 explosion, Jones has been a disappointment in terms of statistical production. I'm not going to bank on him suddenly turning things around this week. |
| GB | Randall Cobb | WAS | Bashaud Breeland | Cobb has really struglled over the last couple of weeks, and while much of it can be attributed to his lack of 100-percent health, I also see a divide between him and Aaron Rodgers. Hopefully they get back on track this week, but I won't hold my breath considering how well the Redskins have been playing lately. |
| HOU | Will Fuller | OAK | David Amerson | Fuller started this season out with a bang, but has cooled off considerably. His quarterback can't get the ball to anyone, so I will obviously be skipping Fuller this week. |
| IND | T.Y. Hilton | TEN | Perrish Cox | Hilton had a huge game in the Colts last matchup with the Titans, and while the Titans have improved since then, I still see a mismatch for Hilton and Andrew Luck. Expect Hilton to have another excellent game on Sunday. |
| JAX | Allen Hurns | DET | Darius Slay | Slay is one of the league's best man-up corners and Hurns has done very little this season. That should explain my feelings on this matchup. |
| KC | Chris Conley | TB | Brent Grimes | In all honesty, the only wideout worth starting on this Chiefs offense right now is Tyreek Hill. Conley has almost zero upside. |
| LA | Tavon Austin | MIA | Byron Maxwell | Austin is an unstartable entitity with Case Keenum under center, but things may be different with Jared Goff starting. There is no projection possible here, but you may get lucky with a blind flex start of Austin this week. |
| MIA | Kenny Stills | LA | Trumaine Johnson | Stills is one of the Dolphins big play threats, but does little underneath for this offense. Thus his production is very hard to predict and I rarely consider starting him. The same goes for this week. |
| MIN | Charles Johnson | ARI | Patrick Peterson | Johnson is a waste of fantasy roster space. |
| NE | Julian Edelman | SF | Tramaine Brock | Edelman will as always be featured more in the slot so his matchup is tough to forecast. I see six catches for 75 yards and a touchdown coming his way this Week. |
| NO | Brandin Cooks | CAR | James Bradberry | Cooks is a player I love this week. He slaughtered this Carolina secondary in their last matchup and really they haven't improved much since then. He and Drew Brees should have a field day once again against this reeling Panthers team. |
| NYG | Sterling Shepard | CHI | Tracy Porter | Shepard has been good over these last two weeks and has put together a pretty solid rookie campaign overall so far. He should see a handful of targets once again this week and will look to continue his touchdown streak. Just keep in mind that he will always play second fiddle to Odell Beckham. |
| OAK | Amari Cooper | HOU | Kareem Jackson | This week, Cooper has one of his toughest matchups yet, and this is coming off of a game in which he tangled with Chris Harris of the Broncos – one of the league's best man-up corners. Jackson should give him fits, but I have enough confidence that Cooper should still have touchdown upside and should near six catches for around 80 yards this week. |
| PHI | Nelson Agholor | SEA | Richard Sherman | This is laughable. |
| PIT | Sammie Coates | CLE | Joe Haden | Haden is more likely to match up with Antonio Brown, but regardless of who is taking on Coates, I don't like his fantasy prospects. Currently Coates is dealing with several broken fingers and has only caught one ball over the last month of action. Pass on him until he returns to health. |
| SF | Aaron Burbridge | NE | Malcolm Butler | Another laughable matchup. Burbridge is non-existent on any fantasy radar. |
| SEA | Jermaine Kearse | PHI | Leodis McKelvin | Kearse is just not targeted enough to be considered fantsay relevant. |
| TB | Mike Evans | KC | Marcus Peters | Evans may have not seen a target in the first half of last week's matchup, however he cam alive in the second. I expect him to carry that momentum into this matchup where he will be taking on a struggling KC secondary. |
| TEN | Tajae Sharpe | IND | Patrick Robinson | Sharpe got into the end zone last week, and while I typically do not trust him, the Colts secondary may offer him the best opportunity to produce at a fantasy relevant level. |
| WAS | DeSean Jackson | GB | Demetri Goodson | D-Jax's availability is still up in the air, as he is currently dealing with a rotator cuff issue. If healthy, he has a nice matchup with this banged up Green Bay secondary, however I doubt he will play. |
NOSTRA-DOM-US PREDICTS
ELITE PLAY
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Antonio Brown ($9,500 on DraftKings) vs. Jamar Taylor (likely Joe Haden)
Brown is coming off an excellent game against Dallas in which he was targeted a whopping 18 times. With the Steelers desperately needing a win this week, I expect them to stick it to the winless Browns by riding their star wideout once again. He should have his way against any Cleveland corner, even if it is Joe Haden.
AFFORDABLE PLAY
Brandin Cooks ($7,000 on DraftKings) vs. James Bradberry
In the Saints last game against Carolina, Cooks cooked this sorry Panthers secondary for seven catches, 173 yards, and a touchdown. Drew Brees and this New Orleans passing attack hasn’t really cooled off since, and I expect a similar aerial dominance to that of a month ago. Start Cooks with confidence this week, as he is my choice for value play of the week.
BARGAIN PLAY
Doug Baldwin ($5,700 on DraftKings) vs. Leodis McKelvin
Despite coming off of a three-touchdown performance last week, Baldwin is still somehow priced at only $5,700 on DraftKings. I feel excited because if you remember correctly, Baldwin actually started off last season slowly as well. He and quarterback Russell Wilson turned it on in the second half of 2015 and finished up with 14 touchdown hookups. It looked like last week against the Pats that he and Wilson found their stride once again, so I’m going to roll the dice while his price is still low and go all in on Baldwin for Week 11.