Fantasy Football Target Stats Analysis: NFL Week 9

Now I don’t wanna sound all bragadocious here, but as an old soul, I have found that my connection with that universal spirit that ties and binds all things seems to transcend well beyond that of just normal kindness, understanding and spiritual guidance to those around me. Apparently, it also connects to the NFL. You’re more than welcome to offer up an additional theory here, but I can only look to my ethereal kinship with the natural world as the explanation for the abundance of targets doled out to the tight end position last week.

After discussing the state of the tight end position last week and how the lack of high-end options in Week 9 shouldn’t affect you in an adverse way, the universe spoke up with 18 tight ends who saw six or more targets. Of those 18, eight found the end zone (Jimmy Graham found it twice) and of the remaining 10 who didn’t, six of them had at least four catches with no fewer than 60 receiving yards. That’s 15 tight ends who posted at least 10 points in a PPR format and if you’re in a standard scoring league, well let’s just throw Kyle Rudolph into the mix as he found the end zone despite seeing just three targets all game.

So you’re welcome for that.

Now while I probably shouldn’t be flexing my spiritual muscles like this as the universe does frown on even the slightest bit of hubris, maybe the fact that I’m sharing this with all of you and not just keeping it all for myself will help move the needle in the right direction.

And what is that direction?

How about the lack of running back pass plays being called? Players like Devonta Freeman, Danny Woodhead, Theo Riddick and even the likes of Duke Johnson and Charles Sims saw their preseason draft value and ADP increase as a result of their pass-catching skills. Now sure, Woodhead and Sims have been out injured for a while and Riddick just came back from missing a handful of games, but overall, the position, on the whole, is way down with respect to running back targets.

At this time last season, we had three running backs in the top 50 overall for targets. This season we’ve got one, David Johnson, on the Overall Targets Leaderboard and he sits right at No. 50. We do have six running backs who have between 41 and 49 targets, but of those six, only Le’Veon Bell, DeMarco Murray and Riddick have the ability and opportunity to climb the leaderboard. Neither Duke, Bilal Powell nor James White will see enough targets to keep pace with the wide receivers and tight ends over the next seven or eight weeks.

Perhaps we can continue to blame the two-back system most NFL teams employ as the notable pass-catchers who share the backfield just aren’t seeing enough snaps to garner the necessary targets to elevate their value. Maybe these last two weeks where we had a total of 12 teams play just one game can share the blame. Whatever the case may be, it could be a lesson to learn for drafting next season. Pass-catching backs who share snaps/carries with a between-the-tackles guy may not have the value you’re expecting, even in a PPR format. If that’s the case, then waiting on your secondary backs may not be the best course of action. Yet another reason to throw the Zero-RB strategy into the toilet!

Of course, now that I’ve gone on this rant, maybe the universe will punish my hubris with an excessive number of check-downs and running back pass plays this week. Yeah, that’s right, but don’t say it aloud. Let’s see if that universal spirit is prone to reverse psychology.

Now let’s get to the targets…

Week 9 Target Leaders

Just a quick nod to Mike Evans for being the targets leader in Week 9, though it hardly comes as a surprise to anyone. An added bonus here in that Evans was able to practice in full Wednesday and will have his final concussion protocol exam Thursday. The Bucs expect him to be fully cleared which means he stays right there in your lineup for Week 10.

Love the target attention for Stefon Diggs here as this now gives him 27 over the past two games. The failure to reach the century mark in yardage was a bit disappointing, as was the lack of touchdowns, but he did have five red zone targets on the day with one coming inside the 5-yard line. Just a matter of time before it all comes together for him and Sam Bradford. Of course, he will be seeing a lot of Josh Norman this week and when he moves to the other side, Bashaud Breeland is no slouch.

Thankfully, the bye week will limit the number of Robert Woods questions this week. His 13 targets were huge and his yardage output on 10 grabs was nothing short of outstanding against the Seahawks. However, there’s really no consistency with him. It was just his second game with double-digit targets, he’s got only one touchdown on the season and while his two red zone targets made up a third of the total red zone targets for Buffalo, there’s just not a whole lot there. He’s just too hit-or-miss for me. You can talk about the soft schedule coming up, but is there anything to indicate that he thrives against soft pass defenses? No. He’s barely a WR4 in leagues of 12 teams or fewer and even that is a stretch. You just can’t predict one of these high-target games. Certainly no one did this past week.

Please tell me you’ve all noticed the role-reversal for Golden Tate and Marvin Jones over the last few weeks. It’s a bummer for those who dropped Tate and/or failed to sell-high on Jones, but perhaps there will be enough to go around for both after the team’s bye.

Pretty sure I can lump Lance Kendricks, Jason Witten and Richard Rodgers together here as all three were in ridiculously favorable match-ups in Week 9. The Panthers, Colts and the Browns ranked in the bottom eight against the tight end coming into the week and while I was higher on Rodgers and Witten, I had Kendricks in a few GPP lineups. Will I do it again? Probably not. OK, maybe when Kendricks faces the Saints (Week 12) or when Witten faces the Lions (Week 16), but outside of that, none of them warrants a spot in your starting lineups.

With five touchdowns in his last five games and three in his last two, perhaps it’s time to start paying more attention to Rishard Matthews. I had recommended him in the preseason as a potential sleeper, but Marcus Mariota had such a hard-on for Tajae Sharpe that Matthews was cast aside just as he was in Miami when those clowns added Kenny Stills. Well, it’s pretty easy to see who the new No. 1 is in Tennessee and with favorable match-ups against Green Bay, Indianapolis and Chicago over the next three weeks, he could prove to be a fantastic WR3/flex play in your lineups.

Click Next to get to the Overall Targets Leaderboard & additional analysis ---->

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Overall Targets Leaderboard

Target Percentage Leaders

I mentioned last week that you needed to monitor the T.Y. Hilton/Donte Moncrief situation in Indianapolis and sure enough, Hilton’s overall target rate dropped to 26.5% from 27.1% in just one week. Over the past two weeks, Moncrief has 15 targets to 14 for Hilton and while that’s obviously close to an even split, it’s Moncrief who has the red zone targets and the two touchdowns in that span. If I had to choose one over the other for the rest of the season, Moncrief gets my vote. Hilton can spread the field, for sure, but Moncrief seems to be the more reliable overall. Think of it almost like Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas this season. Moncrief won’t overtake Hilton in targets on the year due to missed time, but track the numbers between Weeks 8 and 17 and see where they end up.

During Sunday’s action, I tweeted out “If there was any doubt that Michael Thomas was Drew Brees' new favorite, he just dropped the mic on stating his case.” That was right after his second touchdown catch in which we just jumped and snatched the ball right out of the air and from the defender. Over the last four games since the Saints bye week, Thomas has 32 targets to 30 for Brandin Cooks and this week is actually the first time that Thomas has the higher overall target percentage. Drew Brees will still look for Cooks, but the 6-foot-3 Thomas is the new big dog in this receiving corps.

Red Zone Target Leaders

Nothing surprising about Jordy Nelson and Brandon Marshall sharing the red zone targets lead with Emmanuel Sanders, but how does Sanders get zero red zone targets this past week against the Raiders? How about the fact that Trevor Siemian threw that exact number of passes inside the red zone? Denver’s offense looked absolutely atrocious this week and Sanders hasn’t done a lick of end zone dancing over the last five games. His red zone target percentage is still almost twice that of Demaryius Thomas’, but the fun might be postponed while Siemian struggles (he’s looked worse and worse during each of his last four starts). Fortunately, the Broncos get the Saints this week, so if there was ever a chance to right the ship, it’d be here.

One of the things to monitor when you’re looking at red zone stats is from what distance the targets are coming. Not to pick on poor Jason Witten after such a delicious game against the Browns, but his 14 red zone targets on the season are not producing a strong touchdown load. Once inside the 20, Dak Prescott obviously likes to use his tight end, but it’s simply to move the chains and get a little closer. Of those 14 red zone targets, only two have come inside the 10-yard line and only one of those was inside the 5-yard line. So while his red zone targets and rate are top-shelf, his scoring is far from it. Both those targets inside the 10 did come in these last two games so maybe Prescott is viewing him a little differently once down there, but that’s just not enough evidence to say that Witten is about to become a touchdown monster.

Potential Risers

Potential Fallers

Week 10 Match-up to Watch

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers

Well now how’s this for going old school? Talk about a storied rivalry. I expect both teams to come out heavy with the run and pit Ezekiel Elliott and Le’Veon Bell against each other, but by the middle of the third quarter, I’m looking for fireworks. We’re talking about the 17^th and 18^th-ranked pass defense in the league and while the Cowboys give up fewer passing yards per game, they’ve also allowed more passing touchdowns. Bell will see a bump in targets as the Cowboys rank 19^th against running back pass plays and obviously Antonio Brown will get the lion’s share of the targets. I like Eli Rodgers over Sammie Coates and look out for Jesse James as the Cowboys rank 30^th in the league against the tight end. For the ‘Boys, Dez Bryant is a must-start as the Steelers rank just 28^th against opposing WR1’s and are allowing almost 90 yards per game to them. A nod to my co-host on SiriusXM’s Bleacher Report Radio, Brandon Marianne Lee, who warned me about her case of the Beasles last week and I didn’t listen. I’ll give Cole Beasley a look here in PPR formats.