OK, so I don’t want to get all bragadocious here, but I think I’m starting to find some really nice consistency with my level of play right now in the NFL DFS universe. I’ll be the first to tell you that grabbing that million dollar brass ring is ridiculously difficult, especially if you’re not investing big bucks into your games every week, but if you’re just sticking to the 50/50’s and Double-Ups (or Triple-Ups if you want to get a little brazen), you can build yourself quite the bankroll.
I have now cashed in 50/50’s for three straight weeks (five of my last six) and my $300 tournament win has me easily in the black for the season. We’re not talking big bucks here as I’m up just under $200 thanks to the $25 entrance fee into a tournament in which I’m automatically at a disadvantage right from the start. But my cash game play has allowed me to make up some of the difference from my tournament losses. And that, by the way, is how you’re supposed to do it.
When we first began this series, one of the first things I mentioned was that newbies to the DFS world should avoid the big tournaments to start and stick to the cash games to build your bankroll. After you’ve done that, then you can take your winnings and go after the white whale. That was the advice Jeff Mans gave to me and while, for the sake of this article series, I have played in tournaments way ahead of schedule, it is easy to see that Jeff was a thousand percent right in his suggested style of play. You need to hit on a big week in order to land a hefty sum in a tournament. For cash games, you just need to beat half the field. You can afford to have a miss or two in a cash game. In a tournament, you miss one or two and you’re cooked.
Now, I don’t want to discourage you from tournament play because let’s face facts – they’re a sh*tload of fun. They are. You hit on a couple of players for the week and suddenly you’re near the top of the leaderboard with dollar signs in your eyes and dreams of clearing years of accumulated debt. There’s an excitement about them; a wow factor, if you will. And just like me last week, there’s ALWAYS a chance you can find your way into bigger and better prizes. Just don’t put all your eggs into that basket. If you’re going to play in tournaments, make sure you invest enough in some cash games to cover potential tournament losses. If you’re spending $25 to join the big tourney, maybe throw some money into a series of $5 and $10 50/50’s to help cover your tournament fees. I’d say just do a $25 cash game, but you’re dealing with a slightly more experienced group of opponents. I’m not saying you can’t beat them, but why make it more difficult for yourself if you’re just using it as a tool to cover your tournament fees?
So as for my level of play this week, I had to keep it pretty tame. To share a bit of personal information, the RotobuzzGal and I are moving this weekend and the past week has been dedicated to preparing for the big day. A harrowing adventure indeed, as everyone knows, moving, and everything that goes into it, totally sucks. Throw in the fact that we’ve been in this house for a decade and the wife is a bit of a hoarder, my job as resident sorter/garbage-designator becomes that much more difficult. So with that, I entered just one $5 Double-Up and used the same lineup for the FanDuel $450K Thursday NFL Rush where the winner gets $40K. With a final score of 150.78, I was able to win the Double-Up AND grab $12.50 in winnings for my $5 investment in the tournament. Not too shabby.
Here’s how it all went down…
So I approached it a little differently this week. I usually pay up for receivers and this was no different, but given the fact that we had a week where we could truly bargain hunt for running backs, I opted to pay up at QB a little more. I was actually thinking about staying with a bargain QB and going with Rob Gronkowski, but, believe it or not, I felt the QB pay-up would be better for me since Washington’s pass defense was so bad that Tom Brady would be better off spreading it around. Looks like I was right.
.jpg)
Cam Newton, QB – I truly believe he has the highest floor of any NFL quarterback with the way he runs and continuously poaches goal line runs from Jonathan Stewart. Coming into the game, the Packers were giving up the most yards and points to opposing quarterbacks so this looked like the perfect time to invest.
DeAngelo Williams, RB – Yes, the ownership percentage in tournaments was likely to be high, but considering the price and the way Williams performed earlier in the season, this seemed like the perfect bargain. Thoughts confirmed, in a major way.
Jeremy Hill, RB – Whoops! Ah, what can you do? My prediction for the game flow was simple: The Bengals go up big in the first half while Hill runs out the clock against the NFL’s worst run defense throughout the second half. It did not work out as I expected and Hill was a serious disappointment.
Julio Jones, WR – How do you not start the No. 1 receiver in the game against one of the absolute worst defenses? It wasn’t nearly as explosive as I thought/hoped, but Julio still got his and managed the 18.7 points for me.
A.J. Green, WR – Well come on. With no Joe Haden, no Tashaun Gipson and just some Tramon Williams, I was hoping to see a much bigger night from Green. Who knew Andy Dalton was going to Tyler Eifert every time they were in the red zone? I certainly didn’t and considering Eifert’s ownership percentages in my games, neither did a lot of people.
Michael Crabtree, WR – I’ve been riding him throughout most of the season in both seasonal and DFS play. He leads the Raiders in targets and red zone looks and has become a crutch for Derek Carr. He’s a PPR monster and thanks to a nice increase in red zone work, he’s a beast all over. And that price!!! Come on!
Heath Miller, TE – It was a combination of last week’s 105-yard performance and the fact that the Raiders totally suck against the tight end. He would have had a perfectly solid day had Ben Roethlisberger thrown him the touchdown instead of to backup Jesse James, but hey, that’s the game.
Robbie Gould, CHI – Underpriced and one of the most reliable kickers in the game. Just didn’t pan out. Not sure how I could have read the situation better. At least I didn’t use Nick Folk.
New York Jets, DEF – The Jets and the Giants were the top scorers this week, as the G-Men put up a late defensive touchdown.
So there we have it, DFS fans. Another successful week and by sticking to my original plan with regard to the games I play, things are going well and I’m making money. There is most definitely a skill needed to make it all happen, but it seems to be a relatively easy skill to require. The big tournament money is still housed in some luck, but it is attainable. Look for my big-check photo-op sometime around Week 15.