Rapid Reactions
Considering the nature of the turnaround of this article, much of what I’m saying comes from the same amount of time you have had to watch the games each week. Published on Tuesday, the Running Back Workload is only hours removed from Monday Night Football, and day removed from Sunday. I’m often analyzing the red zone channel like Sherlock Holmes trying to get an advantage, and while it is helpful, I will also use this section to get my thoughts on the page. Here are my top-five rapid reactions from the Week 2 NFL running back climate…
1) Forte’s forte...
… Is everything. The guy is a timeless do-it-all back, who is currently the league leader in touches through the first two weeks of the season. While many predicted a renaissance of sorts for him in New York, I remained skeptical. My argument? “He’s now on the wrong side of 30, has logged a ton of mileage throughout his career so far, and his stats have been on the decline over the last few seasons. This is all not to mention that his 2016 is coming off of a contract year in which he still missed three games.”
Having said all of this, I am currently eating crow. Forte turned out to be exactly what the doctor ordered for this Jets offense, as he can bang it in between the tackles, and also serve as Ryan Fitzpatrick’s much needed check down option, considering the lack of a reliable tight end presence in this Chan Gailey scheme. The video below is from Thursday night and it is of one complete Jets scoring drive. It more or less epitomizes what I’m talking about in terms of Forte’s importance to the Jets offense.
Going forward, I see little reason to assume that teams will figure him out. His talent remains unquestionable, while he looks fresher than he has in years. I would still warn though that we have seen this new team, veteran back resurgence before (think LaDanian Tomlinson in 2010, or Chris Johnson last year). In the instance of Forte, I would be weary of the workload pace that he is currently on. If he keeps this up, he will far surpass 450-plus touches, which is a number that most coaches fear even giving to prime running backs (See DeMarco Murray 2014).
Look though, the guy is coming off of a three-touchdown performance in Week 2 and I’m not here to rain on his parade because I rather like Forte. Consider this more of a public service announcement that you shouldn’t be surprised if his transmission blows down the stretch considering the nature of the position and his projected touches at the advanced age of 30. For now, I would hang on to him and milk all of the gas that is left in his tank, but if his production remains at this level, don’t fear selling high on Forte come Week 7 or 8.
2) Sell high on LeGarrette Blount?
Speaking of selling high, my advice to you here is to bail on Blount the second Brady comes back. To me it’s pretty obvious that his heavy workload stems from the lack of a veteran quarterback at the helm. With an even more inexperienced QB likely under center for the Pats this coming week, Blount’s touch numbers are expected to be even gaudier.
Come Week 5 however – while Blount will remain the Patriots starting running back, still with plus upside – his production should become much more erratic, inconsistent, and less predictable. That’s just the nature of the running back position in a Tom Brady led offense.
3) Melvin Gordon 2.0
I say this in a more literal sense because this is not just a guy who is getting more comfortable after notching a season in the league under his belt, but rather this a re-invented Melvin Gordon.
To me, Gordon appears to be a completely different back from the one I scouted coming out of Wisconsin two years ago. I originally was one of the few guys not so high on Gordon coming out of college because I saw through the façade of his outrageous collegiate production. He was a sprinter who couldn’t be caught once he captured the edge against Big10 competition, while he exploited the wider NCAA hash marks. As I expected in 2015, Gordon entered the NFL and really struggled to get anything going, as he scored exactly zero touchdowns despite getting a starting back’s workload.
While I may have been right about him as a rookie, Gordon used the offseason to change the conversation. Where he surprised me most is with his determination and humble demeanor. Clearly Gordon took his time off to overhaul his game. No longer is he just looking to bounce runs, while he added power and patience. He looks bigger, yet just as fast; much more patient, yet just as explosive. He has taken what he has learned from a season of failure and has flipped the script towards success early on in his second year.
Going forward – especially now with the season ending injury to Danny Woodhead – Gordon appears to be a back who’s stock is on the rise. He finished Week 2 with 102 rushing yards and notched his third rushing touchdown of the season already. The time to buy is now or never.
4) Timeout T.J.
I’ve gone on record saying how much I dislike T.J. Yeldon’s game, and while most people know that I am stubborn enough to stick to my word, I admittedly and shamefully am also happy at his struggles so far this season. Mainly this stems from the fact that Chris Ivory – a back whom I like far more – will now have a much easier shot at reclaiming his starting role once he gets back out on the practice field.
If my previous advice hadn’t gotten through to you over the last couple of seasons, maybe the numbers will now. Drop Yeldon, stash Ivory.
.jpg)
5) And here come the injuries…
Ahh, the nature of the sport and position has finally reared its ugly head in Week 2, as several backs have gone down with significant injuries.
Here’s a list of starting backs who will be on the shelf for the foreseeable future:
Replacement: Jerrick McKinnon/Matt Asiata
McKinnon is going to serve as the scat back, while Asiata will be the short-yardage/goal line guy. It is still too early to tell their carry or reps split.
– Arian Foster (there’s a surprise)
Replacement: Jay Ajayi/Kenyan Drake
Ajayi is the better back in my opinion, however he has been on coach Gase’s s*** list since the offseason, so it is unclear how his role will pan out. Drake was just taken early in this year’s draft, so there is a chance that the coaching staff favors him more.
Replacement: Melvin Gordon
I just outlined above my thoughts on the new and improved Melvin Gordon, so he is the player to invest in if you insist on having a San Diego running back.
Replacement: Charles Simms
This one is pretty straight forward, especially in PPR formats.
Replacement: Cameron Artis-Payne/Fozzy Whittaker
Fozzy is the guy who just ran for 100 yards in a spot start, however word is that the Panthers plan on going with CAP while Stewart is out. At least at first, it should play out that way, while talent and production will prevail between the two.
Replacement: Theo Riddick (sleeper: Dwayne Washington)
Riddick will undoubtedly get the first crack at every down duties, while he has no shot at losing his passing situation reps. If he can’t handle the full load however, expect the rookie Washington to step in and split time with Riddick. Washington was a pleasant surprise in the preseason and has a shot to produce in this offense, provided the opportunity.
Nostra-Dom-Us
So I hit a three-run homer in my first Nostra-Dom-Us picks this season, as all three running backs finished in the top-15 at the position and tallied at least 15 points on DraftKings (Murray: 21.5, Anderson: 18.3, Elliott: 15.7). Headed into Week 3, I will look to find more matchups to expose and more favorable price tags in DFS. Without further ado…
Melvin Gordon ($5,800 on DraftKings) vs. IND Defense
I know, you can call me a hypocrite if you want, but as I outlined above, I have pulled a 180 on Melvin Gordon. I’ll consider it acceptable in this regard though… As he has changed who he is as a running back, I have changed my opinion on him as one; it’s only fair. In this particular matchup, Gordon takes on an Indy defense that I don’t trust, while he will be given the full workload now without the presence of Danny Woodhead. Considering how well he has performed in a timeshare of sorts so far this season, his production should only go up now that he will be featured.
DeMarco Murray ($6,300 on DraftKings) vs. OAK Defense
I’m gonna let it ride on my boy Murray this week, as I see no signs of him slowing down going forward. Even with the presence of talented rookie Derrick Henry, Murray appears to be the featured guy with no pressure of being supplanted – especially on passing downs. In PPR formats, Murray might be considered a top-five selection at the position going forward, as he already has amassed 12 receptions for 91 yards and two touchdowns through the air this season. He looks fresher than ever and has recaptured that confidence that he had during his historic 2014 in Dallas. Taking on a Raiders defense that has so far allowed an average of 113 rushing yards against in two games this season, I see the Titans committing to Murray early and often at home.
Flyer Pick: Jay Ajayi ($4,000 on DraftKings) vs. CLE Defense
As I said above, this backfield situation is still yet to be fully hashed out after the “shocking” injury to Arian Foster, however I feel that J-Train is the most talented back available on the roster right now. He appears to be over his hammy injury that plagued him throughout camp, and while he still may be on coach Adam Gase’s bad side, he still managed to out-rep and out-touch Kenyan Drake to finish out Week 2. Going against Cleveland, I am actually high on Miami’s offense. Ajayi has seniority, talent, production, and goal line upside over Drake, so I will be flexing him in my lineups this week.