Fantasy Football Target Stats Analysis: Week 15

Here we are – Week 16. It’s the championship for most of you, I’m sure, but still just the semi-finals for many as well. For the former, there is no tomorrow. For the latter, there won’t be one if you don’t make smart decisions. That means doing the necessary homework. You don’t have to over-think things to the point where you give yourself an aneurysm, but you do need to study the personnel, the match-ups and the numbers thoroughly. Having a strong grasp on all of that will ultimately leads you to the right lineup decisions.

For example:

Everyone is going bananacakes over DeAndre Hopkins’ 17 targets in Week 15. Brock Osweiler has been benched and Tom Savage is expected to continue leaning on the wideout who was considered to be elite entering the season but has since been labeled one of the biggest busts of 2017. Is it time for redemption? Maybe. But let’s remember that Osweiler sucked for 14-straight weeks and it wasn’t until Week 15 that he was benched for Savage. Why didn’t the team make the move earlier? It wasn’t about the money as so many people seem to be focusing on right now. It was about Bill O’Brien’s belief that Savage was/is the inferior quarterback.

With the Texans fighting for the AFC South title, O’Brien had no recourse but to make the change. It’s not that he thought Savage was that much better. It was the understanding that Osweiler still wasn’t showing any signs of improvement and time was running out. And that’s a knock on Osweiler, not an endorsement for Savage.

Now perhaps there’s some upside to Savage. He was certainly an efficient passer when he came into last week’s game as he completed 23 of 32 passes for 260 yards. He didn’t throw an interceptions or lose any fumbles and, of course, he helped lead the Texans to a fourth-quarter comeback victory over the Jaguars. But that’s about it, really.

Savage has thrown exactly 55 passes in the three years he’s been a professional. He suffered a shoulder injury in 2015 and failed to take a single snap that year as he sat behind Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum and eventually Ryan Mallet all season. Not exactly the strongest of competition.

Over three-plus quarters last week, he failed to get the Texans into the red zone on all but two drives and one of those appearances stalled at the eight-yard line. Maybe the lack of touchdowns wasn’t entirely his fault, but we’re talking about the Jaguars, people. The friggin’ Jaguars. They’re certainly not the worst defense in the NFL, but they’re definitely not in the top 10, are they?

So now we take an inexperienced quarterback with the weight of the world (or at least the Texans’ playoff hopes) on his shoulders and we put him up against a veteran Bengals team whose defense gives up just 242 passing yards per game and has limited opposing quarterbacks to just an 85.3 passer rating. To also put it in fantasy terms, the Bengals give up the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. They bleed points to the tight end, so that should keep C.J. Fiedorowicz on your radar, but against the wideouts, they play a tough game. Just ask Antonio Brown, Terrelle Pryor, Jordan Matthews and Steve Smith, Sr., all of whom were held in check by the Bengals secondary over the last four weeks.

I’m not saying that Hopkins doesn’t deserve consideration for your lineup, especially if Savage is going to keep force-feeding him targets, but keep your expectations based in reality. He caught eight passes on those 17 targets and, believe me, those other nine passes weren’t dropped balls that hit him square in the numbers. The volume is sure to be there, but if Savage struggles, there’s nothing Hopkins or his fantasy owners can do about it. Is he a better option than a lot of other receivers? Of course, but thinking you’re suddenly going to ride to your championship on 130 yards and two touchdowns from Nuk is not how you should be walking into Week 16.

Now that I’ve depressed all you Hopkins owners, let’s take a look at the Week 15 targets and then, of course, the Overall Targets Leaderboard.

Week 15 Target Leaders

Usually I kick it off with a nod to the weekly leader, but I think I’ve slapped you in the face with reality enough already. Let’s move on.

While many of you were super-stoked to see Alshon Jeffery finish with 89 yards and a touchdown, let’s keep in mind that both Cameron Meredith and Deonte Thompson (yeah, Deonte Thompson) finished with more targets. We’ve talked about how back-up quarterbacks jell better with the back-up receivers they continuously practice with (Bryce Petty and Robby Anderson, anyone?), and Matt Barkley’s relationship with these two is no different. That’s not to say that Jeffery can’t be helpful, but when it comes time to set your lineup for Week 16, I’m still leaning towards Meredith.

Bilal Powell may not have done any end zone dancing, but he was an absolute beast in PPR formats. He had the lead role in the backfield as Matt Forte nursed a knee issue, averaged 5.3 yards per carry and saw an outstanding 12 targets which he turned into 11 catches. I expect something close to a repeat performance this week against a Miami defense that has allowed the third-most rushing yards in the league and ranks 14^th against running back pass plays. If Petty were to miss this week, I would have trusted Powell less, but he’s in and the young quarterback will continue to lean on his backfield.

I don’t love the upcoming match-up for J.J. Nelson this week, but I don’t hate it if he’s going to continue seeing double-digit targets. Obviously there’s no guarantee, but with Michael Floyd out of the way, Nelson should continue to line up on the opposite side of Larry Fitzgerald regularly. He seems to be a red zone favorite for Carson Palmer and has now scored a touchdown in three-straight games. If you take into account that the Seahawks rank 23^rd in the league against WR2, he becomes a very interesting option.

I love seeing Rishard Matthews back on this list. Absolutely love it. With a Week 13 bye followed by a tough match-up with Denver’s No-Fly Zone, many people were off Matthews for his Week 15 game against the Chiefs. Those who had faith and remembered the breakout campaign that ran from Week 5 through Week 12, benefitted from Matthews’ 105-yard effort. He may see a little too much Jalen Ramsey against the Jaguars this coming week, but as Marcus Mariota’s No. 1 wideout, he’ll continue his assault on opposing secondaries.

Click Next to get to the Overall Targets Leaderboard and further analysis ---->

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Overall Targets Leaderboard

Target Percentage Leaders

Amari Cooper’s slump since the Raiders’ Week 10 bye now has him sitting as the second-most targeted receiver on the team behind Michael Crabtree, and by a significant margin considering where the target percentage has been for these two all year. It was almost expected that Crabtree would see the majority of work as he gained Derek Carr’s trust and became his go-to possession receiver, but Cooper had started out strong this year and seemed determined to be more than just a deep threat. A number of drops and added coverage have since caused the change in the pecking order, but with a match-up against the Colts this week, he cannot be ignored.

Dontrelle Inman continues to be that solid receiving option no one seems to know about still. With Travis Benjamin’s long touchdown last week and all the attention sitting on Antonio Gates and the tight end touchdown record, Inman just seems to cruise by as an afterthought. Even with three touchdowns over his last four games, people are questioning his use. Obviously he’s not an elite, but savvy owners are finding a way to get this guy into their starting lineup and are reaping the benefits. If the rain stays away in Cleveland this week, he could be in for a real nice showing.

Red Zone Target Leaders

While everyone continues to focus on Zach Ertz, Tyler Eifert and Travis Kelce, guess who leads all tight ends in red zone targets? Yup, Kyle Rudolph. And guess who leads all tight ends in touchdowns? How about Cameron Brate? And right behind Brate for touchdowns is…you guessed it…Rudolph, again. On the overall fantasy scale, the tight end position is a disaster. There’s no Gronk, Reed is an injury-riddled mess, Ladarius Green is desperately trying to get out of playing games this year and Greg Olsen only has three touchdowns on the season. Oh, and those of you who have been waiting for Gates to break the record, good friggin’ luck! He’ll likely be heavily targeted against a soft Browns defense this week, but he’s got zero touchdowns since the Charger bye week while Hunter Henry has four in that span. So when you’re siutting there trying to decide which tight end to use, if you have Brate or Rudolph, your answer should be them as quickly as it’s been for many of you to say Ertz or Kelce.

Potential Risers

Potential Fallers

Week 16 Match-Up to Watch

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

How do you pivot away from Cam Newton after he took down the Redskins pass defense with such ease Monday night? The Falcons don’t have a Josh Norman to shut down Kelvin Benjamin and between Ted Ginn, Devin Funchess and Greg Olsen, the Panthers should move the ball well against a Falcons defense that has allowed the third-most passing yards in the league and given up 28 touchdowns through the air. Only the Browns have allowed more passing touchdowns. But on the other side of the ball, how do you not love Matt Ryan. If all goes according to plan, Matty Ice gets Julio Jones back this week against a secondary that has allowed the most passing yards in the league (275 per game) and has coughed up 24 passing touchdowns themselves. Even if Jones doesn’t make it back, Ryan has jelled very nicely with Taylor Gabriel and Aldrick Robinson. Hell, even Justin Hardy gets into the action down in the red zone. You also can’t forget the Panthers also give up almost 50 yards per game to running back pass plays, a specialty for Ryan and his dynamic backfield duo.