NFL DFS Strategy: Final Run

We all have our own agenda when it comes to what we want from our DFS play. However, the assumption is if you’re still checking out this column on Week 15 you’re a cash player trying to grind out a decent profit. If so, we’re embarking on a very dangerous time of the season. The major live events have passed. The chance to win millions are waning as this is the last week DraftKings offers a seven-digit prize this NFL season. The temptation is to eschew normal bankroll management to chase the carrot.

Who am I to tell you don’t do it? It’s your nickel. Just think about it is all. What’s your motive? Make sure that come Monday night, if you’re not a million dollars richer you won’t regret going a little overboard with game selection.

Yes, I’m speaking from experience.

Speaking of DraftKings, and to a lesser extent FanDuel, this is a bizarre week. Especially on DraftKings, there’s a plethora of cheap quarterbacks, running backs and tight ends which normally would allow spending up for the studs at wide receiver. The rub is many of the top wide outs carry more risk than you normally want to incur in cash, particularly at that price point. To wit:

• Odell Beckham Jr. will be matched up with Josh Norman (though the plan is to play him from the slot more)
• Julio Jones has a great matchup but Matty Ice is playing more like Matty Dirt
• A.J. Green caught the bomb from AJ McCarron but can that be counted on?
• Antonio Brown draws the tough Denver D
• Demaryius Thomas’ upside is limited with Brock Osweiler at the helm
• Brandon Marshall plays Saturday night
• Calvin Johnson is hobbled

That’s a pretty extensive list. Shoot, even Rob Gronkowski and Greg Olsen are risky based on their recent injuries and the chance their respective squads limit their playing time if the game situation dictates.

This could be a slate to get some exposure to Cam Newton if you usually go cheaper at quarterback as well as looking at names not highlighted below – players that are solid but do not offer as much of a bang-for-the-buck as others. If you have the cap space, points trump value. Usually you can roster both but sometimes you need to focus on who gets more points. That said, there’s also a decent chance your optimal lineup leaves some salary on the table. That’s fine – or perhaps look at upgrading your defense or kicker (on FanDuel). Just don’t force that extra couple hundred unless you’re sure it makes you better.

KEY:

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER FOR FANDUEL CASH GAMES

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER FOR DRAFTKINGS CASH GAMES