A position not talked about all that much is tight end. In conventional fantasy football there’s always some discussion whether to take one early or wait, but other than that tight end is largely ignored. In DFS it’s pretty much the same – use Jimmy Graham or look for a bargain.
But now Jimmy Graham is hurt and not an automatic start (not to mention on bye this week). As I’ve alluded to in the past, I wish there was better data on which to base this advice, but I have some definite thoughts with respect to tight end usage in DFS.
In a GPP tourney, I don’t pay for a tight end. However, if the scenario is right, there’s a select few worth shelling out decent bucks for in cash game play.
A lot has to go right for a tight end to be considered reliable, which is what is desired for cash games. In general, the following needs to occur every complete pass:
- Quarterback gets adequate protection
- The receiver is open
- There’s a lane for the QB to throw the ball
- The QB decides to throw to that receiver
- The throw is accurate
- The receiver catches the ball
I don’t want to appear too melodramatic, after all this occurs successfully usually 20, sometimes more than 30 times a game for each team. Even so, the number of receivers that can be truly counted on to produce each week is limited.
Tight ends have a couple additional conditions and that’s they aren’t kept in to block, or replaced by a wide-out. The number of tight ends that can be considered automatic producers each week is even fewer than wide receivers.
I’m not exactly sure how to interpret the following or even if it is apropos, but here are the tight ends that were top-50 receivers in standard PPR scoring the first five weeks of the season:
- Week 1 (6): 2. Julius Thomas 9. Greg Olsen 10. Dennis Pitta 23. Jimmy Graham 36. Antonio Gates 45. Niles Paul
- Week 2 (13): 2. Delanie Walker 3. Jimmy Graham 4. Antonio Gates 9. Niles Paul 16. Larry Donnell 22. Greg Olsen 28. Martellus Bennett 30. Zach Ertz 36. Travis Kelce 38. Owen Daniels 41. Marcedes Lewis 48. Kyle Rudolph 50. Charles Clay
- Week 3 (8): 26. Martellus Bennett 28. Greg Olsen 34. Niles Paul 35. Scott Chandler 42. Jimmy Graham 47. Coby Fleener 48. Lance Kendricks 49. Larry Donnell
- Week 4 (7): 13. Travis Kelce 14. Jimmy Graham 15. Larry Donnell 21. Delanie Walker 22. Clay Harbor 43. Jason Witten 44. Jace Amaro
- Week 5 (7): 8. Rob Gronkowski 14. Greg Olsen 16. Julius Thomas 18. Timothy Wright 36. Owen Daniels 37. Dwayne Allen 49. Jason Witten
And here are the number of times each tight end finished top-50:
I suppose my gut reaction is this adds more to the variability with tight end and even in cash games, it could be worth spending very little.
Presently, I have an emperical filter to guide my tight end choice in cash games. I focus on players that average either seven targets or five receptions a game. Each leaves a subset of six to eight eligible players. I realize yardage and touchdowns are where it's at with respect to points, but for me targets and receptions are the leading indicator - you can't get yards or score if you don't catch it.
After Week 5, there are nine players that qualify:
| Player | Tm | G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | NOR | 5 | 48 | 34 | 376 | 3 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 75.2 |
| Delanie Walker | TEN | 5 | 36 | 26 | 364 | 3 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 72.8 |
| Greg Olsen | CAR | 5 | 40 | 27 | 326 | 4 | 8 | 5.4 | 65.2 |
| Martellus Bennett | CHI | 5 | 42 | 32 | 312 | 4 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 62.4 |
| Julius Thomas | DEN | 4 | 24 | 20 | 226 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 56.5 |
| Jared Cook | STL | 4 | 31 | 19 | 221 | 0 | 7.75 | 4.8 | 55.3 |
| Rob Gronkowski | NWE | 5 | 37 | 19 | 247 | 4 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 49.4 |
| Larry Donnell | NYG | 5 | 32 | 25 | 236 | 4 | 6.4 | 5 | 47.2 |
| Clay Harbor | JAX | 2 | 12 | 11 | 92 | 0 | 6 | 5.5 | 46 |
In my cash games, I'll use one of these tight ends. They come at an array of price points which helps. Options such as Jared Cook and Clay Harbor will be dirt cheap since they haven't scored a touchdown and they don't average a ton of yards per game. But in a cash game, I care more about getting something than getting nothing (insert Larry Donnell references here) so I'm OK with paying the minimum for Cook or Donnell.
There are a few names conspicuous by their absence. Whither Travis Kelce, Antonio Gates and Jason Witten? Where art thou Owen Daniels, Heath Miller, Niles Paul and Vernon Davis?
| Player | Tm | G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Y/G | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heath Miller | PIT | 5 | 31 | 24 | 243 | 1 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 48.6 | |
| Niles Paul | WAS | 5 | 30 | 22 | 319 | 1 | 6 | 4.4 | 63.8 | |
| Antonio Gates | SDG | 5 | 29 | 21 | 275 | 5 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 55 | |
| Travis Kelce | KAN | 5 | 27 | 20 | 274 | 3 | 5.4 | 4 | 54.8 | |
| Jason Witten | DAL | 5 | 28 | 19 | 215 | 0 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 43 | |
| Owen Daniels | BAL | 5 | 24 | 19 | 183 | 2 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 36.6 | |
| Vernon Davis | SFO | 3 | 12 | 9 | 91 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 30.3 |
Miller and Paul are close but a cut-off is a cut-off. Gates is scoring touchdowns, but is that sustainable? Kelce is the shiny new toy thus the ideal player to fade. Witten's targets are down as he's being used in pass protection a bit more than usual. Daniels' numbers are skewed since he didn't play as much previous to Dennis Pitta's injury. Davis is obviously down due to injury.
In tournaments, I'll begin my search with the first set but will extend past that if a match-up feels right. I'll look at opponents numbers defending tight ends but I'm not sure five games is ample to use that as a leading indicator. The bottom line is tight end scoring is so variable I'll take my chances, fade the mainstream options and see what happens.