2014 PERFORMANCE

Attempts: 372, the 6th fewest in the NFL
Yards: 1,498 yards, 8th fewest in the NFL
Yards Attempt: 4.0, 12th lowest in the NFL
Touchdowns: 11, 13th fewest in the NFL

COACHING

Dan Quinn is the head coach of the Falcons this year he will be joined by Kyle Shanahan, his new offensive coordinator. Shanahan learned the zone blocking scheme that his father, Mike, and Alex Gibbs created. This is one of the best systems in all of football for a running back and completely sets up Falcons’ runners for significant success in 2014. Looking at the last three seasons with Shanahan you will note that his clubs have run the ball quite well.

2012: 3rd in rush attempts, 1st in rushing yards (Redskins)

2013: 13th in rush attempts, 5th in rushing yards (Redskins)

2014: 6th rushing attempts, 17th in rushing yards (Browns)

You can tell that he likes to run the football. Do they have the horses to do it? It remains to be seen how much of a pullback the team will have, meaning how much they will tote the rock on the ground a year after throwing an average of 39.5 passes a game, the third most in the NFL. You have to think they would like to have a more balanced attack in 2015 and that bodes well for the backfield.

LOSSES

Steven Jackson

Antone Smith (injury settlement)

GAINS

Tevin Coleman

Michael Ford

Collin Mooney

Evan Royster

Terron Ward

OUTLOOK

There are two main options IF they can get, and stay, healthy.

Tevin Coleman was taken 73rd overall in the 2015 Entry Draft. Coleman ran for an average of 7.1 yards per carry, an insane mark, that led to 3,219 yards at Indiana University, including more than 2,000 yards in 2014 to become just the third back in Big-10 history to reach that mark (Larry Johnson, Melvin Gordon).He was forced to have surgery on his toe after the season but he still ran under 4.4 in the 40-yard dash at his pro day. The dude can motor and has at times been looked at as a potential Chris Johnson clone with elite straight line, north/south, speed. Coleman is 5’11”, 205 lbs, and half of his 28 career college scores went for at least 43-yards (read that again). That’s the good. The bad? Tevin lacks some patience and sometimes doesn’t let the play develop. In essence he’s always going 100 miles an hour when sometimes running at 75 would allow a hole to open up and lead to a big play. As with many other speed demons he doesn’t always run with his pads low and isn’t exactly known as a guy who is breaking tackle left and right. He needs a hole to hit. If it’s not there Coleman really doesn’t have the skills to create his own yardage and that’s a concern.

Devonta Freeman stands a mere 5’8” and weighs about 205 lbs (about the same size as Andre Ellington whom everyone always suggests is too small). Though smallish in stature, Freeman is an aggressive runner who isn’t afraid of contact. He’s a different type of runner than Coleman as Freeman is shifty, has nice lateral agility, and he offers good balance after initial contact. Freeman is also solid in pass protection and can catch the football out of the backfield to help make up for his lack of long distance speed. During the 2013 season he scored a total of 15 times for the National Champion Florida State team including at least one score in each of the last 10 games while drawing some comparisons to another Florida running back, Frank Gore (and yes, I know that Gore went to Miami… but that’s in Florida is it not?).

As of now, here are the health updates on both.

Coleman missed the first two preseason games with a hamstring issue. He returned to action in the third preseason game and rushed four times for two yards. Freeman is also dealing with a hamstring injury and he missed the Falcons third game (it should be noted that Freeman finally looked like his old self at the end of August). Both backs should be fine for Week 1, but the fact that both missed so much time, both with hamstring issues, throws the early season workload/rotation into doubt.

If neither of those two are healthy the man who likely would be asked to step up would be…

Antone Smith, who amazingly also strained his hamstring in the game against the Titans, should fill the third spot in the rotation (more on that below). Smith is 5’9”, 192 lbs of elite speed. There have been few players in the history of football who have had as much success with as little work as Smith who is coming back from a broken leg that sidelined him in November of last season. Smith, has touched the ball a total of 29 times on the ground running for 286 yards. That’s 8.4 yards a pop folks. He’s also caught 15 passes for 232 yards (15.5 yards). That means that over the course of 44 career touches that Smith has averaged 11.8 yards each time he touches the football. He’s also scored seven times – four on the ground and three as a pass catcher. In 2014 he had runs of 48 and 38 yards while catching three passes for 41, 54 and 74 yards. In 2013 he had runs of 38 and 50 yards. He’s one of the few backs in football that it can be said that he could literally take every touch to the house. Alas, he's been released with an injury settlement leaving room for this next guy to slide into the RB3 role with the club, Terron Ward, out of Oregon, is also around. He’s fast, seems to have a nose for the end zone, and is a pretty versatile runner even given his size (5’7”, 200 lbs.).

The Falcons recently waived Evan Royster when they signed Rex Grossman less than two weeks after they signed Royster.

CONCLUSION

First, the Falcons might want to hire a new training staff. All three of their top runners had hamstring issues. Coincidence? Perhaps, but troubling none the less.

Second, if the Falcons thought Freeman could handle 18 touches a week would they have drafted Coleman with the 73rd selection in the draft? Maybe, very few teams run with one back anymore, but so is interesting that the Falcons took Coleman early when the trend is to take runners late in the draft or simply sign them as free agents.

Three, it sounds like Freeman will get the first chance to lead the way in what will almost certainly be a shared backfield no matter who named “the starter.” A 65/35 or 60/40 split might be the ideal mix given the differing skills that Coleman and Freeman possess. It certainly sounds like the Falcons understand that Freeman is a more complete player, but that breakaway, game changing speed of Coleman is always going to entice. As of now, the Fantasy Alarm Rankings list Freeman as a low level RB2 with Coleman as a moderate flex option… for now. It could change in a heartbeat making it nearly imperative that you handcuff one with the other if you take either Coleman or Freeman on draft day.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday at 8 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).