Released shortly after the NFL free agency frenzy and prior to the Draft, the NFL schedule announcement is one of the most attention grabbing “minor” events on the yearly American sports calendar. In part, by the NFL doing all it can to conquer the aforementioned calendar from the other American sports, but also on the part of thirsty football fans looking to grab onto anything that can remotely make them forget that their beloved sport is more than five months away, this mythology has been created that the preseason “strength of schedule” somehow matters in the grand scheme of the upcoming season.
It’s really hard to blame anyone specifically because this type of shortsighted thinking is so prevalent in today’s society – and especially in the American sporting culture – however one community of the sporting sector that seemingly shouldn’t be fooled is the fantasy world. I say this because fantasy sports are so predicated on metrics and statistical analysis. Considering this, the fact that every metric out there debunks the theory of preseason “strength of schedule” there is no way that people should be beholden to its statistics.
To spare you of the mundane charts and gaudy graphs, just believe me when I tell you that the way an NFL team finishes one season is 100-percent not indicative of how it will finish up the following season. Understanding and believing this as most of us sane football fans do, then why do we put such credence on these “strength of schedule” rankings prior to the draft even getting underway?
You do understand that they way that they determine which teams have the hardest and softest schedules are based off of last season’s combined winning percentage, right? Ultimately we tend to get all worked up over something that only holds relevance to the season prior.
To take it further for fantasy folks, when drafting, applying this same “strength of schedule” paranoia to any of your overriding strategy is absolute hogwash. For example, one with this thought process might conclude that going Cincinnati Bengals heavy might be the way to go because “hey, they have the third easiest schedule this season, and they were the bomb last year!”
Sure, that sounds nice; however let’s break this down:
First of all, Cincy was “the bomb last year” but this offseason they had a pretty extensive free agency exodus including two of their top three receivers and a starting offensive tackle. Secondly, the Bengals may have an easy schedule based off of last year’s records, however a lot of things change in the NFL from February to September. For example, one of their “easy” opponents are the Dallas Cowboys (4-12 in 2015). Decimated by injuries, Dallas returns all of their veterans healthy in 2016 and looks very similar to the squad that took the NFC East with a 12-4 record in 2014. Another “weak” opponent on the Bengals schedule, the New York Giants (6-10 in 2015). A team last season sinking in quick sand from an out of touch coach and an all-time bad defense, the G-Men went into the 2016 offseason with a plan and committed over $200 million in contracts to top-notch defensive free agents, and also feature a new head coach. A division rival whom the Bengals play twice a year also come up on their “easy” schedule – and no I’m not talking about the Browns – but in fact the Ravens, who were ravaged by injuries in 2015 but still managed to finish up 5-11. To further delve into the Ravens here, while the rankings claim that they are an “on paper” favorable opponent, quite the opposite is actually true for fantasy owners. Despite the Ravens 11 losses, they still managed to finish with a top-8 defense last season. In reality, opposing defenses are all that fantasy owners should really care about, so when looking at it through a fantasy lens, the Bengals might actually have a tough schedule considering they have to play Baltimore twice a year.
Now all of this is not to scare you off of any Bengals players, rather my point is to prove that this exercise can be done with any NFL team’s schedule entering the season; I’m simply using Cincinnati as an example. Further, my point is to in fact prove that the schedule holds little power over the individual players that you select. I’m sure that A.J. Green will ball out, that Jeremy Hill will sniff double-digit touchdowns, that Gio Bernard will be the same PPR threat that he always is, that Andy Dalton will have a chance to finish top-10 at his position, and that even the injured Tyler Eifert will return to form once his health is back to up 100-percent. This is what the back of their football cards have proven to us year in and year out, which should hold more of a priority in our projections rather than calculating last year’s winning percentages with a set of blinders on.
If you want something to look at schedule related, monitor individual matchups. Teams that have stars matched up against stars are worth looking into. For example, what Josh Norman was able to do against stud receivers last season was remarkable and he was certainly a matchup to avoid if possible. As many of you can understand, I cannot deny that I was weary of Odell Beckham Jr. in his start against Norman last season. Turns out, my trepidations were correct and Norman got into ODB’s head like no other has. In many respects Norman dominated the matchup, however through all of Norman’s talent and mind games, somehow all that I have spewed on this page held true despite even my own instincts… Beckham still got his (6 rec, 76 yds, 1 TD).
The moral of the story here is that you can look into matchups or schedules to an extent, but take everything with a grain of salt. Ultimately talent trumps all in the fantasy world and passing on someone because of an arbitrary ranking made up over half a year prior to the season even starting is nonsense. Rather than worrying about the “strength of schedule” a player has prior to drafting him, prioritize the strength of talent and potential within that same player before deciding on his selection.