DFS Strategy: Game Flow and Cash Game Strategy: Quarterbacks and Receivers

Game Flow and Cash Game Strategy: Quarterbacks and Receivers

Last week, we examined the concept of how expected game flow influences the viability of cash game play for running backs. Today we’ll look at quarterbacks and receivers.

Inherent to cash play in DFS is relying on safer, more reliable players with a high floor even if that means sacrificing upside potential. As such, it’s best to consider game flows that render players that best fit that cash game mantra.

By means of brief review, game flow (also referred to as game script) is the general expectation of how a game will unfold. Will it be a high-scoring shootout? A lopsided blowout? A low-scoring defensive battle? An evenly contested tussle where both teams score a moderate number of points? While it’s somewhat of a chicken and egg scenario, our thorough process usually begins with the game flow and in our minds we backfill expected player performance.

So what game scripts are most advantageous to a quarterback? Most obvious is a signal-caller facing a weak pass defense. It helps if the quarterback’s own defense isn’t stellar since he’ll need to keep putting points on the board. A quarterback facing a high-scoring team can also be in a good spot, provided he has the weapons to help keep up. While there are some exceptions, a cash game quarterback is best if there is no bell cow running back to possibly upset game flow by racking up a ton of yards on the ground. As insinuated already, it’s best if the quarterback’s defense isn’t particularly dominant. Finally, you want to focus more on pocket passers and less on options that need running yards to be viable.

The three signal callers that come immediately to mind fitting the above criteria (depending on the opposing defense) are Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan. Carson Palmer is borderline with the only issue being the Arizona Cardinals defense is very good. However, at least not presently, Palmer doesn’t have the closer-type running back so all he’ll do in the fourth quarter is hand off. Andy Dalton is similar to Palmer with the exception that Jeremy Hill profiles as a back that could close out a game, but since he’s not presently being used in that manner, the Red Rifle is primed for cash play.

Later in the season, weather and DFS will be a popular topic. The party line is the only conditions that significantly impact the throwing game are high winds. That said, a team like New England is capable of switching gears and using LeGarrette Blount when the situation dictates while the Green Bay Packers will call on Eddie Lacy as well. But let’s worry about that when the time comes.

Choosing optimal wide receivers is a little more difficult since very few are absolutely assured of getting a baseline number of receptions. A healthy Jordy Nelson was automatic for cash play. When Ben Roethlisberger was at the helm, Antonio Bryant was cash game gold. DeAndre Hopkins has usurped that spot from Brown with Julian Edelman always in play as well. Coming into the season it looked like Jarvis Landry would fit the mold and he may still get there. Allen Robinson is knocking on the door of almost always being safe for cash action too. In general, you want the wideout to be the primary target and not overly reliant on the long ball or big play. The team’s second most targeted receiver is an option so long as he received a consistent number of passes thrown his way. Remember, consistency is more important than the height of a player’s floor. The floor can be low, so long as it’s consistent and in line with the cost. With respect to game flow, you want receivers from games where the point total is expected to be high. Perhaps the most relevant consideration (and something attainable via Fantasy Alarm tools) is focusing on receivers drawing coverage from the opponent’s weaker defensive backs.

Tight ends are even trickier than receivers since they are a team’s primary or even secondary option. Plus, game flow may dictate the tight end’s duty switching from running routes to blocking – either to shore up pass protection or help open lanes for the running backs. As such, paying up for the top options isn’t wise, even Rob Gronkowski. Though, with respect to Gronk, this clears the path to use Edelman since you really don’t want to stack receivers in cash. That is, deploying Edelman and another tight end is better than Gronk and a different wide receiver.

Relating tight ends to game flow, the best choices reside on teams that aren’t good at running the ball but have running backs that excel with blitz pick-up so the tight end isn’t called upon to block. Antonio Gates is ideal since Danny Woodhead can help out with the blocking. Greg Olson is a solid cash tight end since he’s high up on the team’s target totem pole (though that analogy is actually backwards since the more important individuals are lower on real totem poles). Gary Barnidge is emerging as one of the top target options for the Cleveland Browns thus is a cash game candidate. To be frank, punting the position and using matchups to identify an option in a good spot is a perfectly defensible approach to using a tight end.

Now it’s time to reveal the players I’ve identified as my top cash options for the weekend. As always, my next step is digging in deeper utilizing the Fantasy Alarm DFS Playbook.

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PLAYERS TO CONSIDER FOR FANDUEL CASH GAMES

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER FOR DRAFTKINGS CASH GAMES