DFS Strategy: Game Flow and Cash Game Strategy

The two primary driving forces when it comes to player evaluation in DFS are talent and matchups. DFS baseball sides more with talent, with adjustments based on matchups. Talent is certainly paramount in DFS football, so perhaps the fairest means to express this is saying matchups are more important in football than baseball. How much more important isn’t really relevant. The main point is, if you’re not working matchups into your DFS football analysis, you’re doing it wrong.

Matchups in DFS are so important they have their own buzzword – game flow. That term has been written and spoken more this season than in the past five years combined and it's due solely to the DFS explosion and the concurrent analysis.

In baseball, you start with the baseline performance of a player and tweak based on apropos factors. In football, you envision how the game will play out and backfill the players and their anticipated performance to fit that narrative.

OK, that’s a bit of an oversimplification but it’s not all that far off. Connecting game flow to DFS, not only does that help frame player expectation, it also helps distinguish a cash game candidate from a tournament option.

In short, you want players that are going to produce a solid floor regardless of game flow and you want to avoid players whose production is dependent on getting the game flow correct.

The position where this is most important is running back since so many teams use a committee composed of specialists. You want to avoid situations where a team will switch gears and use a pass-catching back if they fall behind or a plodder if they’re ahead. You may feel you know how the game will unfold, but all it takes is a defensive or special teams touchdown to disrupt anticipated game flow. You need a solid floor with respect to the salary for cash play. The specialists are better for tournament action where the player will exceed their baseline production if the game plays out a certain way.

The best running backs to use for cash play are those that both run and catch the ball so if their team falls behind, they’re still on the field. Le’Veon Bell, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Justin Forsett, Eddie Lacy and DeMarco Murray are prime examples. Dion Lewis is developing into that type as he’s playing the Kevin Faulk/Shane Vereen role for the New England Patriots along with playing first and second down. In contrast, LeGarrette Blount is a risky cash play since he’s dependent on scoring a touchdown as well as the ball-control closer in the second half. His production is not all that assured on a game-to-game basis – at least until the weather turns where he thrives. A healthy Marshawn Lynch belongs in this group even though he’s not all that active in the passing game since the Seattle Seahawks usually don’t fall so far behind they need to go in all-out passing mode.

Examples of running backs to avoid for cash play include fantasy stalwarts Jeremy Hill, Mark Ingram and C.J. Anderson. Ameer Abdullah is in danger of joining this group once Joique Bell and Theo Riddick are 100 percent. Like Bell and Riddick, depending on game flow, Giovani Bernard, C.J. Spiller and Ronnie Hillman could see more action. Please don’t misinterpret this as suggesting these players are useless for DFS as their variance gives them the upside intrinsic to tournament play.

There’s one more class of running backs that are viable for cash play – pass-catchers that are part of their team’s offense on a regular basis but don’t put up huge numbers which keeps their salaries low. The best example is Danny Woodhead along with Darren Sproles and the aforementioned Vereen. They’re all in the regular rotation so they have a consistent floor. A floor doesn’t have to be high, it just has to be consistent and in line with their salary.

Next week we’ll review how game flow can be used to select a quarterback and wide receiver. As always, below are the players I’ve identified as cash game candidates for this weekend’s slate. That is, these are the players I’ll further investigate using the bountiful tools here at Fantasy Alarm.

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PLAYERS TO CONSIDER FOR FANDUEL CASH GAMES

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER FOR DRAFTKINGS CASH GAMES