Recovering From My own Butt-Fumble

Oy vey. Now I know how Mark Sanchez felt after the butt-fumble. Methinks I picked the wrong example to make what I still think is a salient point. Let me explain.

No, there is too much. Let me sum up.

• The unbalanced schedule and transient team and in-game situations make a partial season a tenuous sample on which to base decisions
• The Seattle Seahawks recent defensive resurgence has been against a series of below par quarterbacks
• Mark Sanchez will be a top-eight quarterback in Week 14

My contention is team (and player) ranks in a vacuum can be misleading. The quality of opponent is different for each thus needs to be considered when making decisions. And no doubt analysts are taking it into account. Sort of. Some do it subjectively while some attempt to be more objective using numbers. As is often the case, the best way is usually a little of both.

To that end, today a couple of tables will be presented. The purpose of the data is to identify possible latent areas to gain an edge. This is the objective part. Later in the week I'll review some players that are under-the-radar targets for this weekend's games using the information. That's the subjective part.

The tables will compare each team's average rushing and passing output to the collective average of rush and pass yards allowed by the defenses they've faced. The teams will then be ranked using TEAM AVERAGE - AVERAGE OF DEFENSES FACED.

The result may not be perfect but it passes the sniff test. Say two teams average 130 yards per game on the ground. The team that did it facing a collection of defenses that average giving up 100 yards is more impressive than the team that got it facing defenses averaging allowing 115 yards. The "score" for the former would be 30 (130-100) while the latter checks in at 15 (130-115).

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Here's the rushing data through Week 14.

As an example how the data could be applied, the Kansas City Chiefs are sixth overall in terms of rushing yards per game. The interesting part is they've done it facing the staunchest set of defenses when it comes to defending the run. This could make Jamaal Charles a solid play despite facing a top defense against the run, especially if his salary is adjusted downward that week based on the rough match-up. At the very least, there's a chance many will limit their exposure to Charles which gives you an edge with respect to low percent ownership.

And now the passing data.

What a surprise, Peyton Manning doesn't give a rat's behind who's lining up on the other side of the ball. Though, sorry for the digression, but with the emergence of C.J. Anderson and his receiving corps nicked up a bit, Manning looks like a good fade down the stretch.

The club that catches attention is at the top of the list, Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts. They lead the league in throwing yards but have done so against some rather weak competition. What this tells me is Luck may not be such a great play in cash games while facing even an average defense, let alone a solid unit. This is on a bang-for-the-buck basis, His cost is set against the league-leading average so it's obviously very high. But based on the table, he's not likely to throw for as many yards against a better defense, yet that's what you're paying for. Using a top QB that offers a better return on your investment is a more efficient use of your assets.

As mentioned, on Friday check back for some specific examples of players that should find their way into your Week 15 lineups using the above data and principles.