Making History
Don’t look now, but second-year running back Devonta Freeman of the Atlanta Falcons is on pace to tie the single-season rushing touchdown record set by LaDanian Tomlinson back in 2006.
28 -- A number that most thought would never be touched due to the almost instant explosion of passing offenses the year following Tomlinson’s record setting season. Freeman might just be in the perfect situation this year to give Tomlinson a run for his money.
The Atlanta offense this season is running like a well-oiled machine, featuring a young, yet veteran quarterback entering his prime in Matt Ryan, and an elite wide receiver in Julio Jones -- who at times appears un-guardable. They also boast a revamped interior offensive line with new and more athletic bodies. And most importantly, they have a new offensive philosophy that stems from young offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, who, like his father, seemingly can get anyone with legs to rush for 1,000 yards in a 16 game season.
Behind this new offensive brand, the Falcons are 4-0, while Freeman has rushed for seven touchdowns without even being the starter in half of the games. After Weeks 3 and 4, where he scored a combined six touchdowns, Freeman has solidified his starting status over injured rookie Tevin Coleman.
Considering this, his production, in theory, could increase over the final 12 games, putting him on a pretty good track to chase down history. What makes this even more realistic is the rest of the way, Atlanta might have the easiest schedule in the NFL, featuring plenty of teams that are having trouble stopping the run. Due to their multi-dimensional offense, don’t expect teams to start stacking the box either, as the threat of Ryan to Jones is more than enough to keep teams guessing. Freeman seems poised to continue his warped tour of scoring, making him an elite running back option going forward.
Bronco Buster… Backfield Blues
The rushing offense in Denver doesn’t remotely match its lofty preseason predictions, as C.J. Anderson has been one of the biggest fantasy busts this season, alongside DeMarco Murray, as he is quietly seeing his starting role slip through his grasp.
In Week 1, Anderson was seeing nearly three-fourths of the offensive snaps out of the Denver backfield, a staggering number that kept him in the top 10 of the league in terms of snap count percentages. The Broncos were committed to him based on his three-down skillset and due to the production that he posted down the stretch of the 2014 season.
Partly due to the dismantling of Denver’s offensive line, Anderson has appeared to be a shell of himself this season. On the surface, the Broncos brass have kept quiet on the situation, insinuating that they would continue to roll with Anderson as their lead guy, however the numbers seem to be telling a different story. Each week, his snap count percentage share has gone down significantly from his high mark of 74 percent in Week 1, finally hitting rock bottom in Week 4 at a slight majority in 51 percent.
Now I’m not one to try and cause hysteria in fantasy sports. I have been a known advocate of hanging onto players through their struggles, but it might be time for fantasy owners to pull the plug on Anderson. The main reason here is due to the recent emergence of Ronnie Hillman. It’s one thing for Anderson to hold onto his job while everyone is struggling on offense, especially the offensive line, but when he continues to struggle while others are getting the job done, change is likely to be on the way.
On Sunday afternoon against the Vikings, Hillman saw 44 percent of the offensive snaps against Anderson’s 51 percent, and he outrushed him with 103 yards and a touchdown compared to Anderson’s 43 yards and zero touchdowns. Mind you that they both received an equal 11 carries and 12 total touches.
On the season with less carries, Hillman has outrushed Anderson and is the only running back on the roster with a touchdown (2). He has also nearly doubled Anderson’s yards per carry average at 4.9 to 2.7. Making him the clear choice for carries going forward. Now, the Broncos may still want to hold onto Anderson as the starter due to his higher football IQ and better situational skills, but the production is tough to ignore. In the very least, expect a split share from the two backs going forward, which is not what fantasy owners bargained for when they drafted Anderson in the first round this summer.
Spirit of St. Louis
For many stretches this season the Rams offense looked like it could be the worst in the NFL, failing to provide much offensive line push while getting into formulaic play calling trends due to their typically long down-and-distance situations. Quarterback Nick Foles had been struggling, while their running backs weren’t getting much done. Outside of Tavon Austin, their offensive repertoire looked helpless.
Desperately needing something to jumpstart their offense, first round pick Todd Gurley finally showed up in Week 4 for the Rams, only his second appearance since tearing his ACL in college last season. Gurley proved to be manly enough for the task and might have single-handedly turned around the Rams’ season on Sunday afternoon in Arizona against the then 3-0 division leading Cardinals. He gashed the league’s No. 7 rush defense for 146 yards on 19 carries, while rocking the Cardinals to sleep late in the game with several long runs.
What Gurley brought to the Rams’ offense on Sunday, aside from the numbers, was his incredible vision that somehow appeared to be even better in his second career NFL game than it ever was during his years with the Georgia Bulldogs. Everyone knew that Gurley was wildly gifted athletically coming out of college, but the vision that he displayed on Sunday was more than anyone knew of, or could have asked for, from the rookie.
With this skill, combined with his incredible blend of power and speed, the Rams utilized Gurley in designed counter and cutback plays that would allow him to identify, diagnose, and then attack holes on any given play. The plan worked to perfection as he was well on his way to a near 150-yard day against a good Arizona defense.
Going forward, Gurley’s presence has the potential to change the way the Rams play. His vision takes pressure off the offensive line. His effectiveness takes pressure off Foles and the passing game. And finally, his ability to get hard yards and ultimately move the chains for first downs takes pressure off the defense so they don’t have to be on the field for most of the game anymore. In these ways, Gurley will make the Rams’ offense cohesive, while their defense can go back to what they do best … attacking quarterbacks.
PPR Bonus
As most of you know, my PPR pet this season had been Lance Dunbar of the Dallas Cowboys, who by all indications appeared to be getting even more involved in the offense in Week 4 against the Saints, as he was seeing some carries for the first time this season with some legitimate success. Unfortunately, when returning the opening kickoff of the second half on Sunday Night Football, he shredded nearly every ligament in his knee, effectively putting him out of action for the next 12 months or so.
In the business of fantasy football, it is our job to move on and allow the next guy to step up. Duke Johnson of the Cleveland Browns, a rookie who I’ve highlighted in previous editions, finally seemed to produce in Week 4 like I’ve been expecting him to all season long. The Browns put him in plenty of pass-catching situations on Sunday, a la Reggie Bush in his early New Orleans years -- featuring him in the slot, on screens, and in designed hot read banana routes. On Sunday afternoon against the Chargers, Johnson hauled in nine passes on 10 targets for 89 yards and one impressive touchdown reception.
On his touchdown catch, Johnson was lined up in the slot with a noticeable mismatch across from him in the form of 3-4 pass rusher Melvin Ingram. Browns quarterback Josh McCown identified it and didn’t think twice about throwing up the 34-yard pass to the back corner of the end zone, having faith that the rookie running back would run underneath it for the score. Duke smoked the linebacker and hauled in his first career touchdown, proving to fantasy owners, and most importantly, the Browns coaching staff that he can be incredibly effective as a pass catcher going forward due to the mismatches that he creates. It appears that now is the time to go pick him up in PPR leagues, especially with the unfortunate loss of Dunbar.
What to Watch
Headed into Week 5, there are plenty of matchups to pay attention to in terms of backfield storylines and running back usage. Here they are…
Saints vs. Eagles – 1:00 PM EST on FOX
It’s no secret that DeMarco Murray has struggled mightily running the ball this year, as he is currently headlining the list of fantasy draft busts through the first quarter of 2015. Having failed to face a defense so far this season that wasn’t ranked in the top half of the league in terms of rush defense -- including No. 1 and 2 in NYG and WAS, respectively -- the Eagles will finally be taking on a team they would have no excuse in failing to run the ball against. On Sunday, they will be facing the Saints, who boast the league’s 27th-worst rush defense, a number that could have been worse if they hadn’t just faced a one-dimensional attack in the Cowboys last Sunday night. This is probably Murray’s final shot. If he can’t succeed against the Saints, expect a close-to-even touch split between all of the Eagles backs going forward despite his $20 million in guarantees.
Browns vs. Ravens – 1:00 PM EST on CBS
In this matchup, both sides offer interesting storylines in their backfields. For the Browns it’s more complex. How will the snaps, touches and carries be split? For most of the season, Isaiah Crowell has been the “lead guy,” but in Week 4 Duke Johnson saw a large majority of the snaps, exceeding a 60-40 split. As mentioned before, Johnson was heavily featured in the passing game, and he even saw eight carries. Does that trend continue? Or does Crowell see closer to a 50-50 split due to his 5.3 yards per carry on 12 rushes and three catches for 62 yards?
On the Ravens side it’s pretty simple … After weeks of ineptitude, Justin Forsett exploded for 150 yards on 27 carries last Thursday against the Steelers. Can last year’s breakout back build off his huge Week 4 performance?
Bills vs. Titans – 1:00 PM EST on CBS
The draw here is the mystery. Neither team has a clue where it is going to get any backfield production from, as the Bills are down to their third string back Anthony “Boobie” Dixon due to the injuries of LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams. On the other side, there has still been no running back who has stepped up and carried the load for the Titans this season. Who will break out?
Patriots vs. Cowboys – 4:25 EST on CBS
Let me make it clear -- the Patriots should roll Dallas here. But I am highlighting this matchup for two specific reasons:
1) How does the New England backfield situation continue to play out? The snap split between Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount was pretty even in Week 3, but with a bye in Week 4 and a lot of extra time to evaluate, coach Bill Belichick could easily shake things up headed into Dallas in Week 5. It would make the most sense that they continue to use Lewis in passing situations and shotgun formations, while allowing Blount to carry the load in rushing department, but after all this is Belichick we are talking about here.
2) How does Dallas go forward in the backfield? After Joseph Randle nearly coughed up the ball on the goal line in the first half on Sunday night against the Saints, Jason Garrett basically benched him for the rest of the game, despite actually scoring the touchdown. Although he has been their best performer for most of the season, does Garrett hold it against Randle for two weeks, ceding carries to Darren McFadden and Christine Michael, or does he allow his most talented runner in Randle to do the job? Keep in mind here that he is only two weeks removed from scoring three touchdowns on the ground against the Falcons.