Here’s the link to Ray’s ADP breakdown of hitters.
For the Fantasy Alarm Rankings all you need do is click on the link.
STARTING PITCHERS
Clayton Kershaw didn’t throw 150-innings last season. No one cares. His ADP is super high at 5.54.
Jake Arrieta has a 33.4 ADP, 7th highest at the position. That’s a mistake. Check out his Player Profile to learn why.
No one seems concerned with Yu Darvish either (36.5). Pretty aggressive to take him so early after last year’s less than healthy return from Tommy John surgery.
There are 18 starting pitchers being taken in the first 75 selections and 21 hurlers are going off the board in the top 100 overall selections.
Kenta Maeda is #22 at the position. He failed to last more than five innings in any of his last seven outings. Are you comfortable taking him that early knowing that? I’m not.
Aaron Sanchez didn’t deserve the 3.00 ERA he posted last season and he added 90 innings to his total last season from the previous campaign. Seems like most don’t care as his ADP is 106.3, 23rd at starting pitcher.
Rick Porcello at 109th overall? Not according to this guy. See his Player Profile.
Gerrit Cole (117.8) is so tough to predict. He dipped to just 116 innings last season and dealt with multiple arm issues while simply not looking right. He’s a risk at that point though one that is likely worth taking. Still, I’d prefer to roster Danny Salazar a round later (131.4).
Rich Hill at 133.1 overall. I almost fell off my chair when I read that. I’m not exaggerating either. This is seriously insane. I don’t care how good he was last year (Hill had a 2.12 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 129 strikeouts with 12 wins). He also missed like eight weeks with a blister and threw 110.1 innings, his highest total since 2007. I just don’t get how anyone could take him this early. It’s nonsensical to me.
About as nutso to me is the rostering of Matt Harvey at 139.7 overall, 34th at the starting pitcher spot. Coming off a completely lost season, and a rather infrequent surgery in baseball, it’s nowhere near clear that Harvey will be able to reestablish himself as an elite arm. For more on Harvey see Avoid Matt Harvey.
No one on the planet doesn’t love the arm/makeup of Julio Urias (162.8). I’m still completely baffled though why he’s going off the board ahead of guys like Marcus Stroman (165.7) and John Lackey (165.8). How many innings is Urias going to throw this season? I recently posited 160 tops.
Sonny Gray (204.8) is coming off the board after James Paxton (200.9). I don’t agree, but I get it. Both men have health concerns, and Paxton does throw like 119 mph, but he’s always hurt. Gray was hurt last year, but his track record is much cleaner than that of Paxton.
Some names outside the top-300 to keep an eye on...
Adam Conley (316.2)
Alex Cobb (317)
Jason Hammel (319.7)
Luke Weaver (325.3)
Ervin Santana (327.2)
Outside the top-400 to keep an eye on...
Homer Bailey (411.5)
Archie Bradley (418.9)
Mike Fiers (425.6)
Nathan Karns (441.9)
Patrick Corbin (478.9)
As should be obvious... there are plenty of options to be found on the bump late, like on waivers late, in the majority of leagues.
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RELIEF PITCHERS
Ten relievers are going off in the top-100.
Nineteen relievers are being taken in the top-150.
Twenty-two are being selected in the top-200.
As you can see, not a lot of action from 150 to 200. However, there are 11 more relievers coming off from 200 to 300 for a total of 33 relievers going in the top-300 overall.
A.J. Ramos (129) “is our guy in the backend,” said Marlins’ manager Don Mattingly. He also said he could close with “a number of guys” and wants to remain “flexible.” Ugh. That’s not exactly the most heartening, full-throated support from a manager that I’ve ever heard. He referenced the Indians and said he doesn’t have to have a set plan. Caution is warranted with Ramos.
It hasn’t taken long for Greg Holland to start climbing the list. He’s up to 358.4 and he’s been taken as early as 234 overall.
Speaking of taking arms early, Dellin Betances has an ADP of 159.9 as the 22nd reliever off the board. He’s fallen as far as 227th overall but has also been taken as early as 73rd. Betances had a 3.08 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 126 strikeouts, three wins and 12 saves last season.
Arodys Vizcaino has an ADP of 387. He struggled last season with a 1.63 WHIP, but he had 50 strikeouts in 38.2 innings and has a big arm. Do you believe Jim Johnson will hold the closers spot all season long with the Braves?
There’s an interesting situation to watch in Philadelphia as it’s completely unclear who will close. I can’t think it will be Jeanmar Gomez (464.4). Seems like no one else believes it either. So who will close? Hector Nerris is in the lead with a 235.1 ADP. I agree as of this time. Nerris struck out 102 batters with a 2.58 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 80.1 innings last season. Still, Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer believes it could end up being 39 year old Joaquin Benoit. The elder reliever has an ADP of 418.9 at the moment.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).