DFS PLAYBOOK PRO – An exciting offering from the Alarm is the DFS Playbook Pro. I will be doing a daily breakdown of the hitters – Hitting Coach – while Howard Bender looks into the Pitchers (Pitching Coach). You can find the link to the Hitting and Pitching articles under the DFS Playbook pro tab at the top right of the screen.
OTHER LINKS TO BOOKMARK
ANYTHING WRONG WITH SALE?
Chris Sale allowed seven runs in back-to-back outings on June 30th and August 4th, and there was a wee bit of panic. Was Sale wearing down like he often has over the years? Was it a mere setback because of a few bad pitches? Should anyone have been concerned? The answer after both of those outings was no in all three cases. Even was he was battered for all those runs – 14 over 10.1 innings – he still had racked up 16 punchouts with only four walks. So what did he do last time out? He allowed two runs to the Angels over the course of 7.1 innings. Sale may have a 3.47 ERA cause of those two beatings, and that mark would be a career worst for a guy with a 2.89 career mark, but come on now. Over his 22 starts this season he’s posted the best K/9 rate he’s had as a starter with an elite 11.55 mark. He’s also walking 1.80 batters per nine, another career best, and his 1.07 WHIP is a dead on match for his career mark. There’s nothing wrong with Chris Sale. Hopefully you didn’t panic and make a bad deal because you had an itchy trigger finger.
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NIESE PITCHING PRETTY WELL
Jon Niese has a 7-9 record with a 3.46 ERA and 1.31 WHIP a year after he went 9-11 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. He’s basically been that same guy over the course of 52 starts – not world beating but a very solid option in most matchups. Still, with a 6.05 K/9 mark and 2.46 K/BB ratio he’s not someone to lead you to a fantasy championship. Still, the guy is pitching pretty darn well right now for the Mets. Going back over his last 12 starts he’s only 4-4, but he has a 2.76 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP. Moreover, only once in those 12 outings has he not tossed a quality start. Yeah, that’s solid. Additionally, he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five outings. Basically he’s been nails for more than two months now.
SHOEMAKER BEING… SHOEMAKER
Matt Shoemaker had a 3.04 ERA and 1.07 WHIP last year. Said all along it wouldn’t be repeated in 2015. This year he has a 4.36 ERA and
1.24 WHIP after allowing seven runs over 5.2 innings in his last outing. That beating came on the heels of a great run of six starts in which he was on his game with a 1.69 ERA and 35 Ks in 37.1 innings. Alas, that is what Shoemaker is, the total package based upon his effort this year. On the season the ratios are about right. He’s been a nice strikeout arm again, his 8.17 K/9 mark is only four hundredths below his total from last season, and though his walk rate is up from last season it’s still a strong mark at 2.10 per nine (oddly, his swinging strike mark is down 1.5 percent to 9.4 percent this season). A significant issue has been the big fly. He allows 43 percent of the batted balls to go skyward, a bigish number, which when coupled with an elevated 13.6 HR/F mark is the reason he’s allowed 1.56 homers per nine innings. Solid but nothing more at this point.
IAN KENNEDY ROUNDING INTO FORM
Ian Kennedy has had a disappointing season overall with a 7-10 record, 4.37 ERA, and 1.28 WHIP. At the same time he’s still striking out 8.19 batters per nine and his 2.92 K/BB ratio is just off last year’s 2.96 mark and above his career 2.70 rate. But, over his last 11 outings, Kennedy has been better. The K-rate is down a tad at 7.44, and he’s allowed a crazy 13 home runs, but other than that he’s been locked in with a 2.76 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He’s only 4-5 in that time cause of the Padres lack of support given that Kennedy has allowed exactly one earned runs in six of those eleven outings. Only once in the 11 outings has he allowed four runs, and only twice three runs. Solid is as solid does for Kennedy.
HOW IS ESTRADA DOING THIS?
Marco Estrada has been a godsend for the Blue Jays. Over 24 outings, 18 starts, he has a 3.21 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. For his career he is the owner of a 1.17 WHIP, how many folks knew that?, but that ERA of his is over four at 4.04 (two of the previous three years his ERA has been under 3.88). He’s been even better of late that it appears. Over his last 10 trips to the bump he’s 6-3 with a 2.24 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Wow is right. Over his last 10 outings he’s only lasted seven innings three times, but he’s also allowed more than two earned runs only one time in those 10 outings. He’s just not getting blown up – at all.
The only concern is… the homer. For his career Estrada has a 1.31 HR/9 mark. The mark has never been lower than 1.07 in a season (back in 2011). He gets taken deep a lot. Why? The fly ball is why. This season the mark is 49.0 percent, and that’s even a bit high for him given his career 46.5 percent mark. The 49 percent rate would also be the second highest mark in five years. So despite all those fly balls his HR/9 mark this year is… 0.84. That is not a sustainable rate given his batted ball distribution and given this; from 2010-14 his HR/F ratio was at least 10.3 percent every year and his career mark is 11.0 percent. That makes me awfully nervous that his 6.5 percent mark right now could be cruising for a bruising. In fact, if you look at his xFIP mark you find a 4.61 mark. The highest mark the previous four seasons was 4.19. Be cautious with Estrada.
HUGHES STINKS – PER USUAL
Form the Phil Hughes Player Profile written in February.
“People always overestimated Phil Hughes because he had an NY on his ball cap. He's also been an extremely frustrating arm the last five years alternating solid work with downright crap. Perhaps he's turned a corner? Am I sold that he can repeat last year’s effort? Hell no.”
In 2014 Hughes had a 3.52 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 7.98 K/9
In 2015 Hughes has a 4.49 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 5.30 K/9
For his career Hughes has a 4.35 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 7.35 K/9
The ratios this season are the same as always. Last year was the outlier.
The lack of strikeouts is odd after 3-straight years with a K/9 rate over 7.45 (losing two full batters is rather amazing). From 2012-14 his swinging strike rate was between 8.6 and 8.9 percent. This season that number has plummeted to 5.5 percent. He’s just not missing bats as batters are making contact on 89.3 percent of the balls they swing at (the mark has been under 84.5 percent the previous three seasons. Bottom line is that when he’s thrown his fastball this year it’s gotten hammered. His career batting average against on the pitch is .273. The mark this season is .341. Not just singles either. Hughes allowed nine homers on the pitch last season over 435 at-bats. This season he’s been bombed 18 times in just 249 at-bats that have ended on the pitch.
Don’t expect a turnaround the rest of the way.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday at 8 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).