2015 Fantasy Baseball Player Profile: Nelson Cruz

Nelson Cruz killed it last season for the Orioles with the best hitting season of his career. He stayed healthy, hit 40 homers, drove in 108 runs, scored 87 times and was a star in the fantasy game given his draft day cost. What does he do for an encore in his first season with the Mariners after signing a big money deal?

THE MINORS

1998: Signed as a free agent out of the Dominican Republic by the New York Mets. 

TOTALS (2001-11): .297/.369/.536 with 155 HRs, 535 RBIs, 486 runs & 107 SBs in 739 games.

THE MAJORS

As an established player, here are his 5x5 numbers and games played.

2005: One hit in five at-bats.

2006: .223-6-22-15-1 in 41 games

2007: .235-9-34-35-2 in 96 games

2008: .330-7-26-19-3 in 31 games

2009: .260-33-76-75-20 in 128 games

2010: .318-22-78-60-17 in 108 games

2011: .263-29-87-64-9 in 124 games

2012: .260-24-90-86-8 in 159 games

2013: .266-27-76-49-5 in 109 games

2014:  .271-40-108-87-4 in 159 games

Signed as a free agent with the Mariners, 4-years for $57 million this offseason.

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THE SKILLS

HEALTH

Cruz is 34 years old and will turn 35 July 1st. He's no spring chicken. His birth certificate is also an issue given the extensive list of health issues he's had over the years. Yes, Cruz has appeared in 159 games in two of the last three years, but how many players are you aware of that improve their health as they age? It doesn't happen often. Therefore, you should take note of the following.

In three of the last five seasons he's failed to appear in 125 games.
In two of the last five seasons he's failed to appear in 110 games.
Since becoming a full-time player six seasons ago he's appeared in 130 games twice.
In fact, he's averaged 131 games played the last six seasons.

Then there is this. Troy Tulowitzki has appeared in 140+ games twice in the last six seasons, just like Cruz. Tulo has also had four seasons of 120 games the last is seasons - the same number as Cruz.

Gulp.

COUNTING STATS

Those health woes have made the following reality for Cruz.

He's played six full seasons.

He's hit 30 homers twice with a six year average of 29 a season. 
Interestingly he's only hit that average effort three times in six years

He's produced 90 RBIs twice in six years with an average effort of 86 RBIs a season.
Interestingly he's only hit that average effort three times in six years.

He's scored 75 runs three times in six years with an average effort of 70 runs a season.
Interestingly he's only hit that average effort three times in six years. 
The fact is that injuries have killed Cruz's overall value by suppressing his counting stats a good deal of the last six campaigns. On a per game basis he's always effective, but the constant time on the sidelines often renders him as a nothing but solid fantasy performer in all three of the five main categories. 

Before getting to the skills here is an average effort for Cruz, the past six seasons, in the counting categories:

29 homers, 86 RBIs and 70 runs scored

Those are undoubtedly good numbers. Two things though. (1) As noted above, he's only got about a 50 percent chance to hit those numbers in any given season. (2) Not that they aren't good numbers but guys like Adam LaRoche (26-92-73) and Brandon Moss (25-81-70) produced very similar numbers last season so there's no need to get all giddy when Cruz's name is mentioned.

POWER

Cruz has long been a homer hitter with his boom stick. Cruz has posted a GB/FB ratio of no higher than 1.02 the last six seasons and the last three years the mark has been between 1.00 and 1.02, fairly remarkable really. That translates into a fly ball rate of 43 percent for his career, well above the 34 percent big league average in 2014. Cruz has been between 40.8 and 42.8 percent each of the past four seasons. That's enough fly balls to safely support his homer totals the past few seasons. He's earned the taters. 

Cruz has also long been an ace when it comes to converting fly balls into homers. For his career his mark is 17.3 percent, nearly double the league average, and a big-time number. It's a mark that he's hit in four of his last six seasons as well. I should also note that the past two seasons he's posted marks of 21.3 and 20.4 percent. Those are big boy numbers with his 21.3 percent mark in '14 representing a career best mark. In fact, the last two seasons his mark of 20.7 percent is the 8th best in baseball. His advancing age is one consideration, as is his move to a new home park, when we try to project what his 2015 season will look like.

In 2014 Cruz played with the Orioles. In 2015 Cruz will play with the Mariners. That's not a good thing.
According to Park Factors at Fangraphs...

In 2014 the Orioles park was four percent above the league average for homers by right-handed batters.
In 2014 the Mariners park was three percent under the league average for homers by right-handed batters.
That's not a positive move now is it?

One positive? As this graph from ESPN shows, it's not like Cruz hit many cheapies last season. In fact, it appears that only one of his big flies might not have reached the seats at Safeco last season.



Cruz was also one of 32 men who average at least 400 feet on their homers (again from ESPN).

 

BATTING AVERAGE

Still, the injuries, his advancing age, and the move to a less homer friendly environment all will conspire to stop Cruz from attaining last year's level of production. Remember, before hitting 40 big flies last season Cruz had failed to hit 30 homers in each of the previous four seasons. 

In 2010 Cruz hit .318 over 108 games. We were excited. After all he had hit .330 in an abbreviated 31 game run in 2008. It was a mirage. Here are his batting average marks the past four seasons.

2011: .263
2012: .260
2103: .266
2014: .271
4-year avg: .265
career: .268

I really feel like I shouldn't even have to analyze this category given the consistency I just listed. But for the sake of going the extra mile...

Cruz owns a .299 career BABIP, a completely league average number.
Cruz has had a BABIP between .288 and .301 the past four seasons.
All that is league average stuff.

Cruz has a 17.0 percent line drive rate for his career. The league average is 19-20 percent most seasons.
Cruz has a 6-year high of 18.5 percent. Again, the league average is 19-20 percent.

Cruz walks a bit less than is ideal, 7.9 percent walk rate, and while his strikeout rate isn't obnoxious at 22.0 percent, the resulting 0.36 BB/K rate is slightly below the league average which is usually about 0.40. The last three seasons the mark has been between 0.32 and 0.39.
There it is. League average everywhere.

STEALS

In 2009 Cruz went 30/20. Yes, Nelson Cruz went 30/20. 
In 2010 he fell three steals short of a second straight 20/20 effort.
He then stole 17 bases in 2011 and 2012.
The last two seasons he's stolen a total of nine bases. 

Simply... as he's aged he's stopped running. Why risk injury to swipe a bag when his team needs his boom stick in the lineup daily? There's nothing to see here with Cruz. He won't steal 10 bases despite his previous success in the column. He might not even get halfway to that total.

CONCLUSION

Cruz had the best power season of his career in 2014 and now he will look for a repeat in his first season with the Mariners. It won't happen. When in the lineup he will still be a source of power, just not to the levels from last season. Everyone knows that. What most seem to be ignoring with Cruz is that he doesn't run anymore, won't help you at all in the batting average category, and injuries are a constant concern (sound family to the Yoenis Cespedes' Player Profile?). As such, Cruz is a player that you should be wary of paying full value for. However, with the known pullback that is generally accepted it's possible that in some drafts Cruz might fall a bit further than he should which could represent a minor value play.

10 team lg: A fourth outfield option at best. His lack of steals can be worked with, but it's hard to trust his health and batting average to be a more important part of a club in a league this shallow.

12 team lg: Still a fourth outfielder for this scribe. Truth be told, the Oracle isn't targeting Cruz in drafts this season. I see a like Mark Trumbo as a better play, and fellas like Moss, Marlon Byrd, Michael Morse, Oswaldo Arcia... all have issues but all could match the level of production from Cruz at a greatly reduced cost. Bottom line, I don't trust Cruz to stay healthy and that leaves him as a moderate option to me. 

15 team lg: You don't turn away from power bats in a format this deep. Just make sure you don't overpay. Concerns about his average are mitigated here with so many players being drafted and starting with moderate to poor batting marks in their own right. 

AL-only: Be careful not to make him a centerpiece here. The extensive injury history I listed above make it difficult to trust Cruz. In a mixed league you can go to waivers and add Jon Jay or Seth Smith to help you out if Cruz is down. In this setup you'll be turning to the likes of Alex Presley and Andy Dirks. 

CURRENT RANKING: 39th in the outfield.