This game is all about trends. You want to catch the hot streaks when they’re just starting and you want to jump off the bandwagon at just the right time when a player is cooling off. Predicting when each is going to arrive is an incredibly tough thing, especially this early in the season. We’ve discussed swing rates in the past as a determining factor of whether or not the streak is sustainable, but obviously you can’t look at each individual player and make that determination. There just isn’t enough time in your day to do that. This is where BABIP is going to come into play for you.
When we first started talking about swing rates, I said that just looking at a player’s BABIP and accepting or dismissing his level of play due to that number was a lazy form of analysis. That definitely stands true for me still. But that doesn’t mean the stat is useless. Not by any means. I actually like using BABIP as a way to identify which players command further investigation.
It’s very simple – a high BABIP means I have to look into whether this player is performing well based on luck or actual statistical evidence. A low BABIP also means I should look into a player’s under-performance in more detail. If what goes up must come down and if what goes down must come up, well we have our indicator for potential hot and cold streaks. We’ll look into more detail on a case-by-case basis, but for now, let’s look at a total of 10 players and identify which five could be headed for a hot streak and five who could be cooling off real soon.
Heating Up?
Allow me to preface this section by saying, if you need me to tell you to trust in players like Joey Votto, George Springer and Manny Machado, then you need to get out of fantasy baseball right now. These are elite-level players who have had some trouble getting fully underway this season. And it’s not even like they’re not producing. They’re just not hitting for average. So no, if you have a question like “what’s wrong with Machado, he’s batting just .197,” I’m going to dismiss you. I don’t want to be a dick about it, but come on. Questioning them here in April means you know nothing about this game and haven’t done a lick of research. That being said, let’s look at some others who may interest you moving forward.
Rougned Odor, 2B TEX – This poor guy is sitting on a .197 BABIP for the season which sits nearly 100 points lower than his career norm. While I don’t believe you can expect him to breach the 30-homer barrier again this season, I certainly don’t think he’s this bad. Over the last 14 days, the BABIP is .163 with just a 13-percent strikeout rate and over the last seven, it’s ticked back up to .182 with just a 14.3-percent K-rate. The 56.3-percent fly ball rate indicates that he’s just getting under the ball too much and perhaps swinging for the fences trying to repeat last year’s power totals. Expect hitting coach Anthony Iapoce to work with him on his approach and look for him to get back on track with a more realistic approach.
Dexter Fowler, OF STL – This one should hopefully be obvious for you as Fowler’s .169 batting average and .208 BABIP are significantly below his career numbers. His strikeout rate is also sitting at 27.8-percent which is also much worse than his 22.3-percent career average. Over the last two weeks, the BABIP was .200 but the K-rate was still ugly. Over the last seven days, though, while the K-rate is still on the ugly side, a few extra grounders are bouncing in his favor and his BABIP is .273. He’s a career .266 hitter with a .364 OBP and he’s just starting to heat up a little more…as are the rest of the Cardinals. Jump on this potential hot streak while you can.
Eric Hosmer, 1B KC – What the heck is going on here? He’s batting .192 with a .213 BABIP over 79 plate appearances. He looks awful right now and even worse when you match him up against his career .276 average and .308 BABIP. We haven’t seen him make any improvements over these last two weeks as his BABIP remains right around the .200-.230 range over these last two weeks, but it seems unlikely that he somehow forgot how to hit. A deeper look brings you to this near 60-percent ground ball rate which is absolutely atrocious. We saw this last year as he posted a career-high 58.9-percent ground ball rate, but it was eventually masked by an uptick in power – a career-best 25 home runs. Right now, that’s not happening as he needs to stop worm-killing so much and bring that fly-ball rate closer to his 27.2-percent career average. Look for him to adjust his approach at the plate and try to loft the ball a little more. That might take some time and we could see a number of pop-ups while he does it, but change for the better is still coming, so be patient. Stash him if you have to, but the moment he starts getting some luck bounces, you’ll want to get him active again.
Maikel Franco, 3B PHI – How about another guy who just needs to see a few extra ground balls bounce in his favor? Franco’s .171 average and .155 BABIP are both significantly below his career averages of .252 and .268 respectively. His plate discipline numbers indicate a solid batting eye, but this spike to a nearly 50-percent ground ball rate with just a 29.5-percent fly ball rate should normalize soon enough. The BABIP measures .105 over the last 14 days, but is up to .150 over the last seven. He’ll continue to make the right adjustments and once the batted ball data starts to normalize, you’ll see a return to the Franco you were looking for when you drafted him.
Jose Bautista, OF TOR – This one looks like it’s going to take a little more time to get going, but I don’t think you should be giving up on him just yet. I know it sucks. If you can’t stomach it right now, then put him on the bench. You don’t drop him and we’re not at the point where we can sell him for pennies on the dollar. Plain and simple, Bautista doesn’t strike out at a 30-percent clip. He is right now but if you look at his career numbers, you can easily see why he’s sporting a .129 batting average and .189 BABIP. The BABIP and K-rate look just as awful when you look at the last week and the last two weeks, so the only real indicator is that K-rate. Once that normalizes, the BABIP will climb. When the BABIP climbs, Joey Bats will settle in a little better. Could be a couple of weeks, but it will arrive.
Cooling Down?
.jpg)
Avisail Garcia, OF CHW – What a season this guy is having right now, huh? Through 17 games, he’s currently batting .371 with three home runs, 14 RBI and is riding a nine-game hit streak. But he’s doing it with a .465 BABIP and that is significantly higher than the .300-.320 range in which his career BABIP numbers sit. If you look at his numbers over the last 14 days, his BABIP drops to .400 and if you look just at the last seven days, it’s suddenly a dismal .125 which includes a massive spike to a 35.3-percent strikeout rate. Slap-hitting singles will help keep the hit streak alive, but his hot start is definitely masking what’s been happening over the past week.
Steve Souza, OF TB – His current .449 BABIP is more than 100 points above his career norm and he’s doing it with a 25.6-percent strikeout rate. If you look at how he’s been trending in recent weeks, you’ll see a .500 BABIP with a 35.8-0percent strikeout rate over his last 14 days and a .571 BABIP with a 33.3-percent strikeout rate over his last seven. Simply put, a strikeout rate that high and a BABIP of obscene proportions like this means there’s a whole lot of luck involved for him. His line drive rate is at an unsustainable 34-percent rate which should come down with an expected increase in ground balls. The fall may not come today or tomorrow, but it’s coming.
Zack Cozart, SS CIN – Sorry folks, but the decline is already upon us. Cozart’s hot start has him sitting on a .370 average that is completely fueled by a .442 BABIP. But in breaking down the numbers in time increments as we’ve been doing will show you the decline in progress. Remember, this is a guy whose career BABIP is at .278 and that includes this year’s hot start. But over the last 14 days, the BABIP has dropped to .385 and over the last seven days, it’s back down to .286. Not to mention, over these last seven days, he’s provided you with just two runs scored and two RBI.
Chase Headley, 3B NYY – If you’re into selling high, your window to deal Headley is rapidly closing. For the season, he’s posted a .339 average with three home runs, seven RBI, 14 runs scored and three stolen bases. Thank you .391 BABIP which is almost 71 points above his career average. But you also need to realize that Headley, back in his San Diego days was actually a high-contact hitter. Since 2014, the BABIP has never been higher than .317 for the season. Now look at the .367 BABIP over the last 14 days and the .214 BABIP over the last seven. You’ll also notice a rising strikeout rate as well. Yeesh.
Marcell Ozuna, OF MIA – This one hurts a little because I had identified Ozuna as one of the guys whose swing rates indicated he had learned a little something about plate discipline and was ready to take his game to the next level. But just so you know I’m not into cherry-picking stats to make myself look good, here’s a look at a decline in progress. Do I hope this is the valley before an eventual peak? Absolutely, but like my granddaddy always used to say, “You can wish in one hand and shit in the other and see which fills up first.” On the season, Ozuna is batting .306 with six home runs and 21 RBI. He’s doing it with a .356 BABIP which is significantly higher than the .319 career mark. Over the last 14 days, the BABIP is at .296, but he’s also got five of his six homers in that span and BABIP does not include home runs. So seemingly, we’re still good, right? Well, not when you look at the 32.1-percent strikeout rate and look at what he’s done over the past seven days. Only one of those five home runs has come in the last week, the strikeout rate over the past seven days is at 40.9-percent and the BABIP is sitting at .182 for that time span. Again, here’s hoping there’s a peak coming, but if his strikeout rate doesn’t come down significantly, those of us who own him are going to be super-bummed.