There seems to be an epidemic running rampant through the fantasy community and it’s time to get a hold of it before it gets out of hand entirely. While the industry preaches the notion of buying low, there are far too many fantasy owners out there who insist on taking it to the extreme regardless of the potential consequences. Simply put, there’s more to it than just looking at a marquee player’s name, seeing a crappy statistical line and assume that he’s going to rebound. You need to research the player, his team, his overall situation and really dig deep to find the reasons behind why he isn’t performing up to standards. It takes research, people, and if you’re not going to do it, unless you’ve changed your team name to “ The Statue of Liberty,” you need to start forgetting about the league’s tired, poor, huddled masses.

Before I start citing examples, indulge me for a brief moment while I hop up onto my soapbox here for a second. Playing fantasy baseball requires work. Yes, it’s a game. Yes, it’s supposed to be fun. But there is a certain amount of work to put in if you hope to be successful. You can ask guys like me or Ray Flowers or Jeff Mans questions about players, lineup choices, trades, whatever, but in the end, you are the one running your fantasy team. You know the league, you know the scoring system and you know the specific nuances associated with your league’s rules. We don’t. We can help you with player valuation, but one player’s value in a 10-team 5x5 roto format can be vastly different to his value in a 12-team head-to-head points league. We are here for you as a supplement to your own research. If you don’t do your own work, you shouldn’t even be playing this game, let alone talking trades with other owners.

Now, let’s get back to those of you who are blindly buying low on a number of guys you probably shouldn’t even be considering.

We’ve seen a number of highly-rated players struggle this season and I see far too many people chasing them on the trade market. You can give it a shot if the deal isn’t going to cost you anything, but if you’re even remotely looking to give equal value for players like Chris Archer, Dallas Keuchel, or Sonny Gray, you’re making a massive mistake. If you’ve looked into the current performance of any of those guys, and by that I mean more than just a cursory glance at their win total, WHIP and/or ERA, not only would you not be looking to acquire them, but you’d probably be the first to encourage your competition to make deal for them.

Let’s start with Gray.

Compared to the price people paid for him, whether it was a snake draft or an auction, the return right now flat-out sucks. His 4.84 ERA is downright awful and the 3.94 xFIP doesn’t exactly instill confidence in him to bring the ERA back to “normal.” His strikeout rate is up about a half-K per nine, but his walk rate is so high right now that a reduced K/BB becomes a bit of a red flag. But where my real concern lies is the alteration of his pitch mix from the last two years as well as a dip in velocity on his breaking stuff. We’re seeing a lot more of Gray’s fastball and even more so of his changeup while he’s now using his slider only about half as much as he used to. The curve use is comparable to last season, but the overall use of his breaking stuff has diminished considerably. So has the velocity with his slider. Almost two full miles per hour.

Now I’m not a doctor, but when I see a pitcher stop using his breaking stuff which has lost velocity, I’m concerned that he’s dealing with an injury. Sure, he said he feels fine and the team is backing him up, but let’s remember that we saw almost exactly the same with Garrett Richards before he landed on the DL with a need for Tommy John surgery. His velocity didn’t drop, but he stopped using his slider and curve a bunch as well and we were all told that he was just fine. Just some fatigue there, right? Again, I’m not being Chicken Little here screaming that Gray is hurt and the sky is falling, but with red flags like this, does it really make sense to even try to buy low?

And what about Dallas Keuchel? If the reduced K-rate and increased walk rate, which have cut his K/BB in more than half from last year, aren’t red enough flags for you, how about his drop in velocity? Keuchel has seen a drop in velocity across the board, so much so that he’s dramatically reduced throwing his normal fastball in the hopes that a heavy dose of his cutter will induce weaker contact and more ground balls. How’s that working for him? Not only has his ground ball rate dropped, but he’s also getting tagged by more and more home runs this season.

Chris Archer looked like he had it all figured out but took a step backwards when the Mariners beat the snot out of him. Matt Moore can’t find the strike zone again, an issue he had long before his Tommy John surgery. Adam Wainwright can’t get himself straightened out and why do people continuously think that after one strong start Justin Verlander will be Justin Verlander again? It’s more than just looking at names, people. Look at the pitchers. Look at the trends. What once was isn’t always what is. Stop trading for names and look beyond what last night’s box score says. I’m not saying that you don’t take a chance on any of these guys, but targeting even two of them is one too many and paying a price based on their name and what their current owner says they’re going to do is ridiculous.

And yes, the same goes for hitters. Would I love to see Justin Upton, Prince Fielder, Troy Tulowitzki and Joey Votto turn things around? Of course I would. Not even as a fantasy guy but just as a fan of the game. But do I believe they will? I’m on the fence. Really. We’re almost a month and a half in and some of these struggles are real. Can they bounce back? Sure. But until they do, you cannot sit there and trade for them on their name. You need to look deep into their stats and find what’s different. Find the anomaly and see if it’s something you believe can be remedied. But in the meantime, am I offering quality players in return for them? Hell no. I’d rather not own any of them than to pay the price their fumbling owners are asking.

Acquiring a list of quality names is not the goal in fantasy baseball. Acquiring a list of quality ballplayers is. Yes, you can hope that some of these guys turn it around, but as my granddaddy always used to say, “You can wish in one hand and shit in the other and see which fills up first.” Do your homework. Do the research. Study the players before you just blindly accept them in a deal. Sometimes those tired, poor huddled masses need to be some other owner’s problem.