DFS NASCAR: Federated Auto Parts 400 Playbook & Optimal Lineups

Federated Auto Parts 400

Richmond International Raceway

Well here it is folks. The last race before the Chase for the Sprint Cup is here on Saturday night at Richmond International Raceway. Last week saw Martin Truex Jr. continue his career season with a win at the Southern 500 at Darlington as he swept the Coca-Cola 600 and the Southern 500 in the same season. There was not however, as many crashes as typically expected at the track that prides itself on being “too tough to tame.”

This will be the second race of the season at Richmond, the longest of the “short tracks” at 0.75-miles a lap, after a race in April provided quite a bit of excitement. It is the last chance for drivers not in the top-16 in the standings to clinch a spot in the Chase with either a win or by virtue of points. That means that, much like the spring race here, there should be a lot of passing being attempted, and pulled off, as there are multiple fast grooves on the track again.  The track design at Richmond is very similar to that of Martinsville with the turns being banked at 14 degrees compared to 12 at Martinsville. The relatively shallow banking means the speeds will be slower heading into the turns than they were at Bristol, another short track, where the banking is much steeper.

85% of eventual winners at Richmond have come from the top-five starting spots, so moving up through the field to win is much more possible here than other short tracks. Brad Keselowski has the best LOOP Driver Rating at 117 in the last three years with the most laps led at 512 as well; Joey Logano has the best average finish at fifth in the same span.  With five different winners in the last five races at Richmond and eight drivers with more than 80 laps led including six with 150 or more, it can be a crap shoot to pick the winner, but it gives a lot of variety for DFS picks with so many drivers having good histories and values for the 400 lap race. As we talked about in the track data article, there are still several drivers with their position in the Chase up in the air and they could be ones to play this week as they try and leave it all on the track.

PLAYBOOK

OPTIMAL LINEUPS

The cash lineup this week is stacked with top-15 performers at the track over the last two years. Kevin Harvick is the top of the heap this season and leads the way again this week with another great chance at posting better than 60 points. Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr. highlight the next two spots as Keselowski comes in as the highest rated and with the most laps led, while Truex looks to continue his run in his career season and having finished ninth after starting 22^nd in the spring race. Kasey Kahne, Aric Almirola and Casey Mears round out the bottom of the lineup but they are all solid plays. Kahne is fitting for a spot in the playoffs in trying to get a win; Almirola has very good history here and is too cheap to pass up; and Mears has been very fast this week and could carry that speed to a top-15 finish, which isn’t bad from a less than $6,000 driver.

This week’s GPP lineup has similar drivers to the cash roster but does fade Kevin Harvick. Kyle Bush is the top driver in the lineup as we play the positional differential card here. He has been fast of late and again this week and has a real chance to win. Martin Truex Jr. and Jeff Gordon are the next two up in the six-man squad and represent the consistency part of the lineup. Gordon is one of only two drivers in the field to finish in the top-10 in every race in the last two years and has led 173 laps in that span. He has looked good in practice and should repeat those finishes. Kasey Kahne, Jamie McMurray, and Aric Almirola round out the roster as Kahne and Almirola are copied from the cash squad. McMurray sits in the final spot for the playoffs and starts P4 in the grid, which gives him a great chance to clinch the spot with a win. The value of the three is too great to not play any of them.